As i had been writing for last two weeks to traders to avoid trading and becoming compulsive and above all no leverage trading or margin funding .............
The last 2 weeks have dented the confidence of the leverage trader ... Still the currents are not clear in the sea to start swimming without a float .................. Buy your own ship and enjoy the winds is the way to go ( i.e Invest and navigate through the best routes ( Stocks ) )
Technical View :
Sensex has very good support around 13700 -13800 region
Reasons for the same region
1) Last rally from 12316 to 15868 === 3552
61.8% of it is = 2195
Retracement === 15868 - 2195 = 13672 ( + - 100 odd points )
61.8% correction is the max it is possible in continuation of an up trend .... The earlier supports at 15100 and 14700 were dips which would bounce from those levels and which they did but dint sustain ....
Bottom formation pattern would be near 13670 area ....Same calculation for NIFTY = 3970
2) Technically the long term lifeline support trendline which has exactly seen the bottom at 8800 is placed around 13600 ( + - 150 points ) ........................( chart shown for it last time )
3) 200 dema for Sensex is around 13800 and for Nifty it is around 4030 .....These are levels which are good supports and expect fund buying to take place as they would like to hold on above this ....
The same analysis made me put the messages in the day at 13800 levels to all friends on yahoo and also on the chatbox to start investing if u have not....................Monthly close below 13700 levels will only neagte my bullish medium term view which is 17100 -18200 or more by next september ... ...Short term bounce will face resistance at 14600 area and 15100 in good sentiments ...
The current correction has gone unnoticed for us as we have been too selective in picking our stocks ( walchandnagar inds , RDB inds , Mangalore chemicals , Nagarjuna fert , solar explosives, torrent power , JP hydroc and many others have given good gains and are holding strong ) ....
On thursday we gave a call on triveni engg at 60 did 66 on friday where profit was booked now add around 62-63 for a tgt of 75 ... 10% gain in 2 days when mkt fell 100o points
Nagarjuna fertilizers earlier recommend at 20 then again at 24-26 does 33 still holding for investment ............Up 20 % on such a bad day ... Looks like an Ifci in the making with the rumours doing the rounds ....but we will be satisfied with 45-50 tgt for investment with 6mths view as that would be 100 % + neways up 50% frm reco ...
I still maintain its an investors market and patience with selective stock picking will give good returns ....
As warren Buffet says it for the Investor
'Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.'
Triveni Engg looks a good buy around 62 levels with a stoploss at 58 tgt 75 ...
ELECON ENGG , GEI Inds , Mcnally bharat engineering look good with an investment view of 3mths to 9 mths for a gain of 30 % + from current levels ...Safe stocks accumulate
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