Sensex technical View :
In the last two weeks had been maintaining that a bounce to 18800-19000 levels would be seen and as part of discipline book profits in stocks which were picked at bottom as many of them gave 10-25% or more returns in a short period. Sensex has done the 61.8% retracement from the bottoms and is now back to retesting the lower levels.
Supports on the lower side are placed at 17500 zone and closing below those levels for more then 2-3 sessions would be a weakening sign and we could see some more downside and a longer consolidation phase. 17200 -17500 zone should support and stock specific buying can be initiated in small quantity . Only on sustaining Below 16800 traders and investors should keep strict stock specific stops and exit as below that u could see follow up selling and one can get better prices to re enter .
Look for value buying in good quality fundamental stocks which have over corrected and are available at good levels. Wait for the market corrections and buy in a staggered manner and dont deploy total surplus cash . Say if u want to buy 1000 shares of 80 rs stock. Buy 25% ( 250 ) at 80 . another 150 at 76 and so on. Maybe u wont get the whole of intended qty but good pricing and can definitely enter at higher levels but in comfortable time. Do adequate home work and be convinced of the stock u r investing in and with a view of minimum 3 months . You may get returns quicker but be patient in the view. And i maintain dont be in a hurry go slow 🙂
The current volatility is an opportunity for investors who have the patience to see much lower levels and are ready to add more if the stocks fall with a llonger term view. Traders should avoid leverage positions ( FNO , margin trading ) unless they are extremely disciplined and ruthless with stoplosses. Momentum traders should only get back above 18500- 19000 levels or buy on dips with lil deeper stops and sell on pullbacks for small gains and lesser exposure.
MRPL ( 87 to 93-95 ) Ispat ( 47 to 51 ) , Arvind Mills ( 53 to 56.9 ) , Neyvyeli Lignite ( 156 to 169 ) , Peninsula Land ( 96 to 91 stop hit loss booked ) . were the only trading calls we advised with exact tgts and used the 10 % bounce in the stocks in intraday or btst with lesser exposure adviced. Will wait for more opportunities as over trading doesnt mean good money …. be patient and disciplined is our view as always……
Some Thoughts :
As a part of market experience the most important thing i have learnt is the most important thing to know is whether one knows how to make money or not. Not going right , making mistakes , being indisciplined or rigid at times and making losses due to the same is always part of the investment and trading business. But if u know how to make money ( be it tech or tech + funda , good advisors or JUST pure luck ) then markets will always give u more opportunities to make more money provided u stay calm and disciplined.
If u dont know how to make money or are getting into a trade or investment decison without any particular reason , research or rules better get yourself equipped , learned and disciplined or be LUCKY enough with your intuitions and emotions 🙂 as this is one helluva serious business and everyone knows the percentage of winners.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION
MUMBAI FEB 9-10 .
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09819225396 ( after mkt hours 😉