Technical view by Nooresh

If u r not in the market all u can lose is an opportunity ,….

To start it of for last many days and weeks people have been pestering me to come out with some list of stocks to buy and accumulate. I will re write one of the quotes which i like If you are not in the market all u can lose is an opportunity . So for quite some time ppl r getting restless with the cash in hand coz have never been used to seeing 60-80% cash in portfolio or even 100 % to be cash .. But i would rather wait for comfort to deploy cash or go very very slow.

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex has broken the triangle and so continues to correct heavily and sustaining below 15700-15800 for a couple of days opens up to the current low of 15350 or below.

Some things to note :
10 March would be the 34th trading session from the low of Jan 22 and the next 2 days low should be a crucial one to watch as reversals or crucial tops.

The current fall if considered to be a correction of the biggest move from 3000 index to 21k the correction of 38.2% points to 14200 area which is only possible if we stay below 15300 and fundamentally best opportunity if it comes.

Lifeline which we are looking at is near to 16k and only a monthly or quarterly close below the 5 yr channel would imply trouble to the scenario of newer highs after a deep crack . But whipsaw below the line has been seen for couple of weeks in this channel at times so will need to wait another 2-4 weeks to take a fresh view.

Some thoughts :
The simple thing what oldies of the market see is if the novices , layman , paanwallas , autowaalas start putting money into the market the time is to take caution as novices only become aware of mkts at highest points. And looking towards Sensex to touch 25k etc.
Now that scene is over and we seem to be on is the same set of novices may start selling thinking markets could go to 10k-12k etc. So more the noise gets louder more the conviction to re buy .....
So wait for the noise to get louder and keep chipping the same stocks back u sold before slowly as it takes time for the noise to go highest and suddenly would change to silence.

Best Regards,


Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2532 articles.

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