Technical view by Nooresh

SENSEX 15100-15400-15800 … Most important barrier.

Well suddenly all the sub 10k analysts have started hiding . Coz the upmove has hit lot of bears really hard coz many started shorting at 4.2k nifty and 14k Sensex and exitted at that point of time and are now running for cover. Our view was clear at 17.5k to generate cash !! and from there on was staggered buying and now partial booking at every rise.
Some days back i had written with statistics that even if the so called 10k possibility has to come markets should see a retracement of minimum 6-12 % from lows of arnd 12000-12800 zone. And also to a higher extent to 38-50 % which comes to 15100 +.
On a shorter time analysis there was a projection to 12300 zone where we could have seen a bottom which went a lil away frm 12514 the reversal point but its still in our all time 12500-12800 zone !! . Also some things to note are RSI positive divergence, Dollex charts showing double bottom etc which made us believe a possibility of such a retracement even if there is more downside left which is uncertain but the expectation of a good pullback from 12500-12800 was much more certain or probable and dats why the strategy to buy staggered . Those who dint go staggered waited for exact bottom fishing might have missed the pullback !!!
Statistical Analysis as shown before :
27-28 % correction in both falls 21k to 15.3k and 17.7 to 12.5k so a corrective upmove should retrace either 61 % as before which is 15800 for now or retrace in % wise comparison around 23 % .
So that level comes to 15400-15500 which is also trendline resistance. Sustained closing above 15800-16000 would be highly bullish turnaround which is still not into consideration as of now . Chart is explanatory enough so would cut the discussion here as got to sleep also .
Also check the link where in the statistical analysis is given in detail --
Crude is now around 124-126 zone and technically it needs to be seen whether it gives a decent bounce back from here or not. below 124 levels would imply a channel breakdown shown in yest chart which is already broken and 3-4 sessions close below it would confirm the target of 110-112 which has been the view for some time as its a fibo retracement level. Lets c whether it pulls back or cracks much quicker then expected.
Stocks to watchout for :
Yest picks for clients Siemens , HCC , Rel infra gave a good btst return of 8-14 % ! . Cheers.
The 6 stocks given yest rocked today with almost 15 % upmove and almost 5-9 % upmove from open prices. Adlabs,Yes Bank were in the top 5 gainers on the index.
PSU Banks recommended continously have rocked and partially booking advised but there is lil more steam left in medium to long term . All Bank , Vijaya, Andhra were our picks.
Bounce back candidates --- Nagarjuna Fert , Alok Text , GMR Infra in the trading counters.
Will be nearing the resistance zones so all short term buying would be done as per intra day moves so cant update on the blog .!
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Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2531 articles.

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