Technical view by Nooresh

Sensex Time Analysis… Crude 121-123 , Dow + …Relief

Sensex Technical View :

The correction from 15100 continues and has reached 13700 odd already . The fibonacci 50 %/61.8% retracement at 13800 /13500 . Ideally the indices should see a bounce back from these levels are at 14200-14500 ( gap ) which are important resistance levels in the near term .

One thing to note is that the indices have turned back from 15100 .

Some things close to the levels - 50 % retracement , trendline was around 15400 odd ( for nifty it was close to 4550 top ) .

Also as we saw in the previous price analysis fall frm 21k to 15300 was 27.7 % and bounce was 23% from lows .

Now fall is 29 % from 17700 to 12500 and bounce 21 % already and 23% is around 15400 odd.

What we can infer from it is that the current downmove from 15100 should not go below 13400-13500 in the near term for the short term bullish leg be in place. A fall below 13400 would open up an altogether different scenario ! So one needs to keep a close watch at 13400 and 15100 in the near term !

SENSEX TIME ANALYSIS explained below : REFER CHART for clarity

1) fall from 21200 to 15300 -------------------- 8 sessions

1 b ) Pullback 15300 to 18900 ------------- -----9 sessions

2 ) Fall from 18900 to 14700 -------------------- 30 sessions
2 b ) Pullback from 14700 to 17735 ---------------29 sessions

3 ) Fall from 17735 to 12500 ----------------------51 sessions

3 b ) Pullback from 12500 ------------------------??????? 51 sessionss ??/

This is a time analysis hypothesis as per previous observation that if we consider that 12500 is the end of the downfall in near term then we could see a corrective and consolidation move which could last 50 odd sessions or roughly 10 weeks and can go up till 15800 odd on an outer extent ( 61 % ) ! .... This is on the assumption that 13400 and 12500 holds up !!!!

Strategy :
As seen that technically if we hold up 13400 then we could be in a range bound move for coming few weeks and in such a scenario investors need to be extremely stock specific as lot of stocks are available 20-30 % from the high points which suggests there could be quite a good value pick in them . Traders can watch the short term Sensex levels and trade particular stocks accordingly.

Stocks to watchout for :

Sugar stocks like Sakthi Sugars , Simbhaoli Sugars saw some momentum yesterday and seems much more is yet to comee ! ... Investors can also look onto stocks like Andhra Sugars, Balrampur Chini apart from the favourite like Shree Renuka .

Aban looks weak on charts and a sustained closing below 2400 would take it 2000 levels. Keep a watch on the stock

Triveni Engg buy above 95.5-96 stop of 92 tgt 105.

Some mid cap and small cap stocks with breakout levels but shud be supported by vols. The stocks could spurt 10 % or more

Everonn Systems above 525
KRBL above 145

TIPS ind above 53

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Nooresh 09819225396

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2532 articles.

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