Technical view by Nooresh

12500 holds, Dow rallies, Gold cracks…. Bounce back :)

Sensex Technical View :
Sensex achieves the head and shoulders 2nd tgt of 12500 also and makes a quick pullback. The bottom made is 12558 which is very close to 12514 . But it would be very early to confirm it to be a double bottom. A close above 15k levels may confirm the double bottom scenario. In the short term the next level there is a gap at 13660-1930 which needs to be filled and 13900 would be the next resistance.

BSE dollex charts are showing a very good positive divergence on RSI and other indicators which is a good thing. Also Sensex has a higher RSI and indicator value at 12500 bottom which indicates a strong pullback also . Although indicators can be a lil tricky at times and i m not a gr8 follower or believer of them :) .

61 % of the current dip comes to 14100-14200 zones which is where markets would see some pressure.

The strategy to buy in a staggered manner from 13100 as 1st lot may turn out to be profitable at 13900 + as particular stocks may give a good return and one should book partially at 15-25 % gains as part of discipline.

Dow Jones technical View :
As was seen in the chart presented that 10500-10650 zone would be the level to watch in coming days. We saw yesterday some support at 10600 and today a low of 10460 and a reversal to 11000 levels. 11300-11500 is a major resistance in coming days for the bounce back .
Stocks to watchout for :

IDFC has come below 80 and is slowly drifting down but investors can buy in a staggered manner till 65 for long term view only as stock may take time to perform .

Small PSU banks like Vijaya , Dena , Allahabad Bank , Andhra Bank can be bought to the extent of 50 % of intended qty and add on every dip till October with a long term view of 6 mths -1 yr or a tgt of 20-35 % whichever comes first.

SBI , BOI , BOB have sustained strongly in this market . Also LIC housing another favorite in diff segment have stood the storm. Technically BOI above 300 and SBI above 1635 could see a trading move of 5-10 % quickly on upside.

Some other stocks have been recommended to clients for investment at lower levels which are up from those levels in the current bounce and will be booked at 13900 + .

Todays pick for 6 mths tgt in Rolta was done in 6 hours.

18-Sep-2008 10:58:36

ROlta can be bought at 230-245 slowly with a 6 mths view. Investors can allocate 30-40 \% of investment at 13100-12500 and rest later.

18-Sep-2008 13:25:03
Rolta has bounced from 240 levels 6 mth tgt at 290/320 for investors. Reliance resistance at 1980/2040.

Its better to pay a fractional % ge of ur investment for a little professional and disciplined approach to investing and trading to generate gains with lesse risk then erode the portfolio without any help or rather learn the process of technical analysis and be independent in your decisions . We can help you in the process by stock specific advice or training course . Check for more details or mail to .

Market Observations :
The lenghty view given on long term and short term on Sensex , Dow Jones and economical view did not give me enough time to comment on Gold crude and rumours.

In the last interactions with a client i had made him hold some gold bought at 775 for a rally. And the rally amazed me as my tgts were just 840-860 but it zoomed to 918 .
Why is gold running ??.. Majority of the times people talk about $ , crude etc co relation . But the major co- relation for gold is the economy . Whenever it seems the World is an economical mess fundamentally only Asset that can save is GOLD. So uncertainty in global arena led the gold rush with prices going to 918 ! . And as soon as there was a little stability prices started drifting to 850. Technically there is a barrier at 930 on upside and 840/780 on downside shud support.

Crude :
Market-men believe the story in crude is over for next few mths or woud be too bold to say years. Technically a pullback to 110 levels is possible but later prices could drift to 85 levels also. As i dont expect we may see major effect of crude will prefer not to write much like 😉 140 levels and regular updates . If somebody is a commo trader can ask me for more.

Rumours :
In such sentiments we would see lot of crap rumours like ICICI bankrupt or Kotak etc etc. Well all i would say is the Banking system , RBI in India is much more stronger and less leveraged then any other !. Though u may see losses posted bankruptcy never. Dont consider this to be a buy call on pvt banks. Small PSU banks are gr8 value buy now n on dips.

Some dope :

Morgan Stanley Fund has shifted majority of the holdings to other FIIs as per the bulk deals.

Is it that Morgan is pulling out ??? Remember Orchid cracked coz of BSMA ???-- negative way of seeing it .

Deutsche securities has taken up all the stock or transfer !! A quick and easy transfer for Morgan implies no forced selling which is good as stocks may not get impacted // .. Positive way

Best Regards,



Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2531 articles.

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