Technical view by Nooresh


In the last couple of years or more i have been updating my views mainly on technicals,markets,fundamentals,ideas and thoughts related to markets without being biased and devoid of personal indecisions or thoughts.

Now at this juncture seeing 675 points down on Dow Jones does send lot of shivers down my spine as it does for others. Personally i am not an avid trader and neither a focussed investor but as a disclosure am definitely buying at sub 11900 levels although the main focus is towards clients value which needs to be highly unbiased. And at this point of time i would like to put in a few of my personal thoughts at this crucial inflection point.

Few days back on September 30th when i had come out with a list of stocks when Dow Jones fell 700 + points in a day and Sensex was about to break below 12k and some capitulation which got delayed and it reversed from 12150, then i had mentioned that after so many months since January finally my comfort level is increasing for the long term and i still maintain that.

Maybe in next few weeks or months market may test the 9500-9700 mark. And i dont expect the markets to go below 8800 on weekly/monthly closing in next few months or even in years and if it does so then maybe the whole 13 year cycle which Indian markets were getting into goes into a toss which i dont see COMING . Now this maybe a highly optimistic statement to be made when the whole world is crashing, corporates , economists are all stunned , but i will continue to stick to my analysis and thoughts which are to invest at 9500-11900 with a long term view of 1-3-5 years for superlative returns in the 13 yr cycle.

Well worldover we are seeing a catastrophe of sorts with a major liquidity crunch which is crippling financial markets everywhere and India maybe insulated to an extent but is still not isolated and is definitely getting affected. But i continue to remain highly bullish on the long term and i see 9500-9700 as a great opportunity if it comes in coming months and i dont see 8800 being broken on weekly/monthly basis any time.

The last time i had used such harsh words , unusual optimism and clear views and highly contrarian was when markets were at 8800 and 12300 which were crucial junctures for a bear phase ---- click to read the links
12300 ----

So yet again i make myself clear in the similar style that times maybe tough and worse but i dont see Sensex breaking below 8800 on a weekly/monthly basis and expect 9500-9700 as the bottom zone ideally. If Sensex breaks below 8800 then it would no more be about equity markets which i would be worried of but about the economy which i live in , the assets (property , cash , etc etc ) as it may never come up and Sensex may go to 3k-6k.

Major Bearish scenario Indian markets will only creep if we give a weekly close below 8800 levels... If that happens it implies india is no more shining and i m out of Indian equities or assets to do anything else or any other country or any other job ,...If u believe india story then forget u can see sub 8k or 8800 levels if u do then shut shop on equities go off for better opportunities or secure places to survive .......

Repeating in the same style as i wrote at 12300 after which index touched 21k in less then a year .


" Many investments become LONG TERM coz PRICES have dropped, BUT SUPERLATIVE Gaining Long term investments are created by buying when SENTIMENTS have DROPPED "




Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2531 articles.

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