Technical view by Nooresh

10325-10500 is upper channel…

Sensex Technical View :
The short term channel continues to remain in place with the upper end target coming to around 10325-10500 zone roughly for this week.

At the same time this coincides with the initial tgt of 9900-10500 zone to be seen once we start sustaining 9300. Also the index is closed to the channel line which resisted the last move.

So only if we start sustaining above 10500 for more then 3-4 sessions do we open up to 11650/12500. But this possibility is still not in the picture.

As per the time analysis after the 50 sessions of fall we see a counter phase of around 30-40 sessions and we are through 35 of it ( or say 11-12 weeks and 4-8 weeks) . So the timewise run is almost complete. Although a move out of this pattern for more then 50-60 sessions would mean a possible change in sentiments. Time wise analysis on short term duration may not be highly accurate but gives a fair idea.

Ideal strategy would be to book profits in the zone of 9900-10500 and wait for some time and then take a fresh call.

Stocks to watchout for :

The stock looks set for a quick move if able to sustain above 72 levels. The stock has been battered like a pure infra stock but not seen a similar counter move .

Chamble Fert
If continues to sustain above 43 could see 50 odd levels also in short term.

Gammon India , Bhushan Steel , Corp Bank etc and some other small cap stocks may give a bounce back in coming days but would be difficult to trade so not looking into them.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

Is a crude bottom in place :
Yet again we see a squeeze in longs of crude. In the Jan contract expiry crude quoted at 33 whereas in Feb its been trading arnd 42. This implies a clear difference of 20 % !!.

The last time such a thing happened was after a drop from 145 to 110 levels and then we saw 125-130 odd in one mth and 110 in other. This was a turning point on Crude after which we dint see 130 odd levels on the screen although analysts continued to remain bullish.

Technically around the 40 level mark is an important long term support which is still not broken in actual terms. So in the next few weeks we may get confirmation of the same. This is just a brief personal view but i am not a regular watcher of commodities but i have pointed out turnarounds well ---- OLD CHARTS . It seems a bottom is in place or is not far away technically and time to stop shorts on crude n small longs. Rest Markets are supreme we can go wrong 😛

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Best Regards,



Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2532 articles.

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