Technical view by Nooresh

Strong bounce NEEDED … Has it started ? ….

Sensex Technical View :
Finally a strong close on Sensex and a sharp move after a few boring sessions. Technically Sensex seems to be very close to the flag/channel/triangle breakout ( diff patterns ) . The near most resistance level is 9300-9500. Sustained closing above those levels gives a move to 9900/10400/10900 in short term.

In the last two days it was discussed in depth with index constituents that a strong bounce was needed desperately and should be sharp. We have got the first initial bounce back in many stocks with SBI crossing 1120 , RIL coming close to 1180 , LT coming close to 780 , ICICI crossing 360. The next surge needed would be sustained close for 2-3 sessions above this level to set in a strong bounce back. Continue to trade on long side with trailing stops in the above stocks.

Many charts with levels have been posted in last 2 days which could be good guides for traders. Also as discussed the counter trend or bear rally could get stronger so it would be better to trail and not go contra.

Stocks to watchout for :

The charts for some stocks have been posted in the post below this . Apart from that

IDEA if closes or stays above 49 can tgt 55-60.

Real estate stocks are seeing speculative built up on base of possible stimulus. Patel Engg , Nag const , Ivrcl infra seem to be good for short term if one wants to speculate. Not a recommendation from my side as i have been on an avoid on this sector since last 4-5 months and has immensely helped not being invested in them.

After being stopped out with marginal gains or small stop hits in the very few trades taken in last few sessions we finally could latch on to a few trades. Pasting some of the messages.

buy Nifty Futures at 2665-2660 or if stays above 2682 with a stop of 2639 tgt 2720-2750 in positional. 12/4/2008 11:17:53 AM
Raise stop in Nifty to 2660 tgt 2720-2750.Buy reliance above 1075-1080 stop of 1050 tgt 1120-1140. Momentum level for reliance 1180.12/4/2008 11:39:39 AM
Raise stop in Nifty to 2670 Reliance 1065. partial booking at 2720 and 1120.
12/4/2008 12:31:24 PM

BUY RELInfra at 525-528 small qty stop of 516 tgt 545-560.
12/4/2008 1:09:23 PM

Nifty futures tgt done of 2750 can book fully in the range of 2750-2780 next imp resistance at 2830.Reliance book fully at 1150-1180.rel infra stop 525,ACC 413
12/4/2008 2:38:28 PM

BUY TATA POWER btst at 684-685 stop of 670 tgt 710 -725.small qty only
12/4/2008 3:11:23 PM

Open trades RNRL , ACC , tata power with small exposures.

Market Observations and thoughts :

Some prominent and consistent insider bulk deals by promoters . Click links to check the announcements abt date , time and qty of purchase.
PRAJ ... by parimal chaudhari
NavBharat Ventures .
Gitanjali Gems ... Mr Choksi buyin almost daily
Deccan Chronicle ... Mr Reddy buying consistently

There are many other insider and promoters buying details which are available on bse site. Lot many indications and conclusions possible from it . In cases like Pyramid Saimira , varun shipping the stake has been pledged with brokerages to generate funding too.
Keep a close watch over this data in next 2-3 months.

Best Regards,


Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2531 articles.

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