Sensex Technical View:
As was observed yesterday on the technical chart shown that 9400 remains a resistance which is the recent top. Sensex made a high of 9380 and closed around 9236 pulling back more then 150 points from days high.
If we see this is the third attempt towards 9400 zones. Only a move beyond 9450 can generate a test of the lower trendline again which comes to around 9900 +. Support on downside would be 8650/9050.
As volumes have been low in both the dip below 9k and again a pullback to 9400 the short term direction remains ranged but the short term downtrend remains in place till we dont get back above the trendline shown.
Stocks to watchout for :
Gmr infra and titan were not able to sustain higher levels so no trade initiated. Glenmark for only high risk players !. colgate holding above 415 looks positive.
The stock last time bounced back from 1300-1320 range but has not been able to cross 1430 levels to show positive signals. Breakout on either side would give a tgt 1200 or 1500. Traders can keep a watch.
The stock continues to remain under pressure with the price close to october lows of 148.If breaks below those levels the stock could take much more hit.
Seems the stock is making a bottoming out formation. A close above 62 would mean a breakout move to 70 + .
Market Observations and Thoughts :
Its become a common observation in last days of expiry of some stock showing irrational movements. Last month we saw educomp moving in huge discounts on last day and some others.
This month Akruti Nirman a stock which went into FNO curb ( 95% cross ). The stock was quoting at 200 rs discount in feb futures. The stock has moved from 530-550 to 900-950 in 2 weeks.
The speculation in futures markets continues to remain high in India as there is no market for stock lending or borrowing or physical settlement of derivatives ( India is the only market which still settles on cash ) .
Some thoughts to ponder on---
Many a time another thing that intrigues is the flashes which come on news channels, media. Stocks tend to move violently after newsflashes and media reports. Is there a build-up to make gains from it or a cartel ???
Many promoters are buying back into their company holdings. Quite a lot of promoters group had placed shares at higher levels to fiis, funds many of whom have trimmed positions.
Can we say promoters are buying back what they placed at higher levels , unofficial/benami stake booked in bull period or is it because the valuations have come down sharply??? In cases warrants were not converted as need to pay only 10 % ( stocks have fallen much more then that). Will some promoters again issue warrants ??? to benefit this time around ? ...