Sensex Technical View :
Quick pullback and quick pulldown is leaving no clarity in short term index moves with lower volumes to add to the uncertainty.
In the last so many months Sensex has not closed below the 8800 mark convincingly so a close below could be the trigger for a confirmatory breakdown move. On the upside 9650 remains a level which will be difficult to surpass.
When in doubt stay out seems the best way to trade 😛
Stocks to watchout for :
Bajaj Auto 445 and Mahindra and Mahindra 330 are levels above which the stocks could give a 5-10 % move in short term. Waiting for a petro cut ??/
LnT charts updated in post below
ONGC moving around 615 -625 support zone... 2-3 sessions below that could lead to test of earlier lows also and if holds for some time it can give a 5-10 % pullback.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
In the last few months or one year the businesses, markets and economy has made a total -turn from the past and investors need to have a new yardstick to measure investment avenues then before.
The general logic that a stock at 500 is now at 100 does not qualify it to be a good investment as in the last few months the company's business model may no more be feasible , or debts ,inventories and reduction in assets may make it go broke also. So we need to see things in the current event scenario and strategies should evolve.
Also with period of time in markets one tends to get into a legacy problem of sticking to the same old stocks and businesses which may no more be that great in current scenario. IT was a rage in 2000 but was a night mare in 2001-2004. Realty was a rage in 2004-2007 but its difficult for the same set of business models to create superlative returns always.
As i have said before we would continue to be in time wise pain till Feb-March but in this period investors need to clean up their old yardsticks and views so that a new perspective can be employed in further investment and trading decisions.
Above all need to look into discipline part of trading and investment as a personal process to be able to perform better six months down the line as no situation is permanent -- be opportunistic rather then bullish or bearish !
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION MUMBAI IN LAST WEEK OF JAN OR FEB 1st week.
INTERESTED CANDIDATES CAN CONTACT Nooresh 09819225396 for more details. The course needs no pre-requisite knowledge apart from an interest to learn.
09819225396 ( call after mkt hours for inquiries or queries )