9450 !!! …Not able to cross… 8600-9450 range for now
Sensex Technical View :
In the last few sessions the range on upside has been restricted to 9400-9450 as was repeated in previous views. On the downside need to watch the recent low of 8630 and next 8300 which is the most important level in the next couple of months as a closing below it would signal extreme weakness.
On the upside the range if capped to 9900-10100 provided Sensex crosses 9450. Traders can position themselves accordingly in near term.
If we see the range bound moves between 8600 to 9400 none of the pullbacks or drops have had not a major large price action or volume support so every move tends to get over in a week. So expected range for the week could be 8600 to 9450 any move beyond it could lead to a nice move.
Commodities update :
It was discussed 920-930 would be a major resistance level difficult to cross and may give shorting opportunity and a target around 900. Gold made a high of 930 and a low of 902 odd which must have given a good trading opportunity to commodity trades.
As of now 895-902 remains a support zone with a pullback resistance at 920 zones. Only a move beyond 935 zone would give a wild move which may be only possible with a crack in equity markets. So can watch for some signals here.
The 38.5-40 remains a zone of support but may get only violated near expiry of contracts. On the upside 43.5-45 would be a resistance to watch. Only a move beyond either of the range will give a big move.
Stocks to watchout for :
Reliance Inds pulls back from trendline ( short trade initiated for clients at 1325 part booked at 1280, Also Nifty 2700 pe ) , RCOM not able to cross 175 and neither 148 so watchout. Real estate pulls back ( dats why risky ) , BHEL remains weak. ITC , colgate nuthin happening.
Crompton Greaves looks weak if stays below 124 could well tgt 100-110 in that case. Watch for volume support.
ONGC the range is 615-675 a close below either levels will give a good 5-15 % move in quick time. Traders can keep a watch.
Recent 52 week low is around 375. So a simplistic trading approach suggests to short below that with a small stop for a tgt of 340-360.