Sensex Technical View :
Sensex lows in the last two days is around 9520-9540 so this is should be a consideration for a short term trader. On the upside recent high at 10127 and the band of 10200-10500 are the levels to watch for. The broad range for Sensex would be 8850-10500 for the next few weeks.
Expect stock specific moves to be more prominent then index moves.
Stocks to watchout for :
remain bullish on SCI Ge shipp BEML ACC and Areva Tnd for short term. Siemens and ABB seem to be continuing the upmove.
GE shipping and BEML chart posted above.
Some day trading ideas but as always for risky day traders.
Rule - Keep a stop of 2.5-3% on buy and tgt 5-10% in the day.
Buy HCC above 41.2 or closer to 38-38.5 stop 37.5 tgt 43/45.
Larsen and Toubro above 695 tgt 710/724.
Buy Punj Lloyd above 95 tgt 99-102 or around 88.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS AND THOUGHTS :
This is a continuation with me trying to put in a projection of markets on time basis.
The view was about the correction should last around 8 or 13 months roughly and we expected a good bottom to be found around October which did much lower then our expectation of 10.5k-11k. The economic data did peak out in October with bankruptcies and skeletons were out !
After this the view was that we may see a re-test or new low around Feb/March and we may have seen a re-test at 8047 going by this viewpoint. We should ideally see a new though emerge in March-May and more confidence to build up by May.
I would still stick to the fundamental and time projection based on fibonacci time analysis which suggests important time zones around 8/13/21 months!
So if we have found a bottom around 8k levels and Sensex crosses 10.5k then we could expect the rally to stretch till April-May. This view is purely based on a personal thought irrespective of technical analysis but a guess work or projection
The next important time period comes around the 21st month which comes in November roughly where in we may see some uncertainty and loosing confidence also before we might get over the after effects of the bear run.
The strategy on this viewpoint would be to look towards investments in the broader market as index may not be a clear description of the larger market as at 10k many stocks are still quoting at levels corresponding to 6k or lower Sensex.
Investors can start to looking to deploy part of their cash in fundamentally sound and undervalued stocks with good track records in the next 2 months with a profit booking strategy to reduce cost of acquisition as sooner the potential for the next move might be up.
Many of these projections are based on my personal view which may be naive and short sighted. This is what the scenario seems to me as of now.