Sensex Technical View :
The view still remains the same as given in the detailed analysis last week
On the short term we are making doji candles in the upmove which may imply some breather or a possible reversal/retracement signal in the short term trend. Simple technicals suggests the low of the last two sessions if taken of then we may possibly see a retracement ( fibo levels once we see confirmation ).
So 9910/9740 become the important lower levels which a short term trader should look for as supports or stops. On the upside the band of 10200-10500 becomes very important.
Stocks to watchout for :
ABB,BHEL,Siemens, RIL have done the faster part of the upmove book profits.Praj and GNFC inch up Orbit stagnant.
IDEA has broken out now stop 48/49.LnT almost comes close to 700.
JSW Steel and Punj Lloyd up 10-15% in the day !
Little illiquid counters which look good on the charts . Stop of 3-4% tgt 10% .
BEML above 390 , HCl tech above 107 , Bharat Forget above 98 ,Torrent Power 98 may give surprise upmoves in short term.
ACC and Guj Ambuja the only few stocks which are above 200 dema and now seem a breakout but not much increase in volumes . If moves out with big volumes then look for short term moves.
SCI and GE Shipping both the shipping stocks look good for a sharp upmove. Speculative traders can buy on dips or momentum with a stop of 74.5 /174. Also baltic index impact/economic signs etc may help.
Ibreal Estate /HDIL /RCAP ( above 385 ) could be the speculative counters short term positional traders can look towards if markets remain stable for next 2-3 weeks.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
As usual in the weekend had some conversations with people related to stock markets and the amount of confusion remains to be high with a section who says new bull run other says a false move other says much bigger fall to come and the no of such sections keep increasing by the day.
A few weeks back the consensus was clearly towards a new low !! Even i was looking at a minimum of 8300 ( video posted ) and 7900-7700 possibly. But as always markets are bound to surprise the market participants !!! All of a sudden the blame game begins and now everyone is talking of this to be a pre-election rally !! and i still dont see much of electoral updates in the newspapers.
Being a technical analyst the bias is always towards data so i just checked on to the global indices folder.
Italy,Argentina or be it Brazil , Russia ,India,Hong Kong , Japan or USA and European indices of UK,Germany,France have all moved up around 15-25% from the lows around March5-10. Some have hit new lows some dint but the move is clear in all the indices.
So the surge has been all over the world irrespective of elections or Geithner report in USA or any other reason !!
There are two types of expert or comical views now.
WE FIXED IT --- RALLY ( bullish view )
( BULLS say the recession is over or the worst part of recession will get over sooner then expected the opposing party Bears says its an illusion created to fool the ever alive bulls !! )
WE SCREWED THEM --- RALLY
( The BEARS say this is the last illusive bear rally to trap the hurted bulls to be killed in the last and final onslaught. The Bulls say the contradictory upmove instead of a big fall we have trapped the sleepy bears ! and every bull run starts with a Bear rally)
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