Lets list down observations.
— The orange line which is the short term trendline has been crossed and will be a positive sign if we stay above for a few sessions.
— The red line joining Jan -Aug – Sept tops comes close to 10200-10500 which now becomes one of the most important resistance zones.
— After October crash the pullback tops were 10945 /10470 and 9725. The current move has made a new high top ( still on ) in this series of lower tops. The next important level comes to 10500 which may be very difficult to cross.
— If we see its a triangle pattern yet again but we did break the same at 8600 but the lower targets were not achieved and Sensex reversed from 8047. So yet again we are on the verge of a triangle breakout but can we rely that this move can achieved targets is a difficult proposition.
Horizontal levels of 10500/10900 become crucial in this sense.
–The possible breakdown from the triangle which was seen at 8600 made the consensus shift to 6k-7k zones but confirmation would have been below 7700 and now it has crossed 10k and consensus can shift to 12k-13k but we should wait for 10500-10900 be taken of for that confirmation.
— The grey channel shown has been resisting all pullbacks ( 10945 /10470 /9700 /9120 ) and upmoves stalled closer to this level. Also the break below this channel had surprised everyone with a huge fall in october to sub 8k levels.
— Now Sensex is back into this channel and the upper end of this channel is 13k !!. The move below the channel at 11-10.5k gave a sharp drop can a sustaining move back into it give a surprise rally to 13k !! wishful thinking .
— On the time analysis front 50 sessions are over but Sensex did not reach a new low. We have never seen more then 6-7 green sessions. Also all the impulsive downmoves to new lows have been retraced ( reaction moves ) back fully and in lesser time. ( 9725 to 8047 and 8047 to 10000 is faster ).
So we are seeing some reduction in the BEAR power as per the time patterns. We may turn positive only when we see Bull power ( reaction moves become faster ). So next dip and pullback pattern is important to watch for that. Shown in yesterdays fractcal dow chart.