The presentation can be downloaded from the links below or go through the entire post.
Sensex at 16.6k Time to be optimistic – – Powerpoint Show
Sensex at 16k-16.6k , Time to be Optimistic not Scared.- PDF format
The presentation in a post for people who dont like to download 
Sensex Falls – 12% roughly
15900 is almost 12% from the top of 18k which should be the worst case scenario.
Sensex absolute price wise – 2k points
15900 is almost 2k points from the top which should be the worst case scenario.
Timewise concerns on the pattern.
As per time analysis we can give a leeway of next 3 sessions for a strong bottom to be formed in 15.9k-16.4k zone.
Sensex downward channel
Downward channel suggests a bounce in next couple of days from 16200-16400 ideally. But we need to cross 16900 to give a turnaround signal.
200 dema/ Trendlines
200 dema has been touched today. Downward trendlines give
Supports at 16250/16000 roughly. So a strong bounce can be expected from these lows. Break below 15900 really changes the chart formation to weak one.
Parallel Channels
Have been able to exactly spot the last 3 bottom turnarounds using parallel channels. So again the bet lies on 16k holding up which is the channel support. ( seen in red and previous ones in other colors)
Global Indices
Global Indices – FTSE Update
Global Indices- Dax
Dow Jones – 9800/10200 important supports
As had mentioned earlier Dow would take a pause from 11200-11400 but the correction was faster to 9800. Till it doesnot break 9800 the medium term remains positive. 10200 a level to watch for short term.
Asian Indices- Hang Seng ( weekly chart)
Asian Indices – China
Crude- Bottom out around
Although technically a prefer to catch momentum or turnarounds after confirmatory moves then to try predict precise moves of the market. But an attempt can be made to graphically show it to make it simpler.
The following chart is just an attempt to graphically pull up the probable scenarios for the next 1-3 months.
Even if one is bearish I would expect a bounce back to first set in from 16k levels. And if one is bullish then before going to 18500 it has to first touch 17k in between. So a bounce back trade is definitely low risk high returns
Sensex probable moves –: Bullish – Green , Bearish – Red , Low risk trade – Orange
Please pass it to others so we can get more comments on the above view.
Analyse India
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Related posts:
- Global Indices crucially poised- Emerging markets seem a little better.
- Sensex at 16k-16.6k , Time to be Optimistic not Scared.
- Global Indices – Dow Jones, FTSE , CAC , DAX and Hang Seng on verge of Breakouts !! Did Sensex jump the Gun !
- Global Indices re-test of recent bottom or another 3-5% down before staging a sharp reversal
- Dow Jones down by 260 points – Global Indices and Gold Update
{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }
Great work Sir Jiiiiii,,, It will help to all traders and investors in market,, Thanx alot for this.
dear sir.plz sed me intardey colls.
thanks
Hi Nooresh,
I agree with Mr.Mukesh Chaturvedi, Really Great Work.
I really appreciate your skill to describe chart in such a way that anybody can understand it easily.
I am also optimistic about market. let’s wait & watch. Hope for up move from here. SGX Nifty is down 72 points now ( 8.57 pm).
Thanks for detailed report.
hi nooresh sir,
its reallly a great work………..and this article clearly shows how much time it took to prepare it…..
but some people see wit blind eyes and comment on it…….
i would advice them to wipe up there eyes so tht it can be clear to them
Dear Nooresh,
Good and deliberate analysis. Keep it up.
Thanks
Dear Nooresh
Hope you are right again. Fingers crossed !!
Really good work. Each & everything is clearly explained with technical base. Also you have recommended stocks to bought at 16k to 16400 level.
Am sure, all the followers would be beneficial this time too!
Hi Asawari,
Yes given my views as clear and simple. Lets see how it pans out
Dear sir,
Please share your views from long term perspective on Development Credit Bank Ltd. and ICICI Bank respectively. I am currently holding ICICI Bank @ 950 and wish to enter Development Credit Bank.
Thanks,
Puneet Khandelwal
Hi Puneet,
I remain positive on both. Prefer DCB around 43-40 levels.
Hi Nooresh,
Really great work on this presentation. It will be of great help for Investors.
Hi Krunal.
Thanks for the appreciation hope market does the same
Cheers,
Nooresh
Hi Nooresh nice work again.You keep doing it with so much ease.I will support the “Highly Probable Scenario” i.e. pull back to 17300-17400 levels if not more.The reasons being in last six months we have not made any headway on the upside inspite of money flowing in. Also we may be retracing whole rise from 2539 to 5399 i.e.2860 on Nifty.The current bottom made on thursday 20.05.2010 shows a fall of roughly 491 points on Nifty from 5399 to 4908.We should retrace this fall to about 5020-5050 levels at least i.e. a rise of 112 – 142 points.I personally have bought futures 4 lots at opening on friday will hold till the same as per the highly probable scenario. I hope you come refreshed after a well deserved break after this weekend. I always keep looking at Analyse India as a “Shining Lighthouse” in this stormy world of stock market who is on a mission to educate investors with their honest views.Bravo! Kudos to you and your team for their sincere efforts.
Hi Kirtan,
Thanks for the kind words.
Yes even i expect 17k + levels pretty soon. Keep trailing stoploss and ride
the lots.
Cheers
Nooresh
Very good analysis.
Thanks Sumit