Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Sensex jumps 2000 points from the Lows — Where are the 4000 Nifty and 14000 Sensex prediction Analysts !!

Yet Again i have been forced to ask this question.

Many a times i get questions that Technical Analysis doesnt Work !

Well i would rather say – Quite a lot of Technical Analysts dont know how to Work or Analyse!

 

I would reserve my further comments on the views given by many other Technical and Fundamental Analysts at 16k sounding full of pessimism and not even caution !!. ( Very busy of late with something coming up)

As always we stood out with a firm stance of being Optimistic ! at 16k.

 

Below are the two charts which would show how precisely can Technical Analysis be able to look into the probable moves with a high degree of precision provided one does simple logical technical analysis. The whole reason for this last chart was explained in a detailed ppt of 15-20 slides.

 

Also this analysis is what i call Before and After Advertisement –

Before -

1) All the so-called technical analysts shout for a possible big correction in Markets. Fundamental Analysts pull in justifications for a crack with high valuations

2) The Newspapers is full of PIGS and DOGS 🙂

Probability

 

After-

1) The Technical Analysts suddenly start getting a bit bullish at 17.5k should now shout for new year highs. Fundamental Analysts start justifying excellent IIP nos and factoring in excellent June quarter nos.

2) The Newspapers is buzz with easing Euro Fears, Chinese Yuan etc.

ExactSensex 

 

Simple Honest Technical Analysis !!

If you would like to learn this simple approach to trading and investing independently then do enroll in one of our courses at the earliest. Next one is in Delhi on June 26-27 !4

 

I would again suggest all the readers to forward this post to all their friends,colleagues and spam it so people get aware of technical analysis and good work done on this blog which is free for all. Also it does take a lot of my time too:) so pull in a few of your minutes to recommend this 🙂

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2609 articles.

You can follow Nooresh Tech on Facebook and Twitter here.


{ 42 comments… add one }
  • ankur June 22, 2010, 07:45

    let see, i hope markets will show correction till expiry from today onwards. July series will be negative.

    Reply
  • ankur June 22, 2010, 07:50

    Technically speaking nifty doesnot seem to go down to 4000 levels , but I still believe nifty will remain in 4200-5200 range till January 2011. This is my astrological prediction. Market may go beyond that level in extreme cases and for a very short period of time.

    Feb 2011 will be month of GREAT investment and people will find their values doubling/quadruple in next few months.

    Astrologically, from today to expiry , markets must remain in selling pressure for every rise , person shall gain from only shorting even in rising markets.

    Reply
    • nooresh June 22, 2010, 08:53

      Hi Ankur,
      Thanks for your astro view. Lets c how it goes.
      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
  • bhavin June 22, 2010, 08:32

    superb norresh….
    Keep up the grt work…
    We all love u…

    Reply
    • nooresh June 22, 2010, 08:53

      Hi Bhavin,
      Thanks for the appreciation.
      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
  • Akshay June 22, 2010, 08:52

    Very well said : Quite a lot of Technical Analysts dont know how to Work or Analyse!
    Thats why you are the best.

    Akshay

    Reply
  • Pulkit Kumar June 22, 2010, 09:14

    Dear Nooresh,

    Agree to what you said, but the hard fact is that the parallel channel you have made DOES NOT hold true in Nifty FUT. Nifty FUT did break the parallel channel (yes not the underlying) and probably that might have caused the trigger of panic. Remember the huge discount? Anyways nice and simple trade setup.

    Regards

    Reply
    • nooresh June 22, 2010, 10:34

      Hi Pulkit,

      I think you are just taking a shot into the blind 🙂
      Well if you look into all the 3 indices generally looked for analysis i.e Sensex, Nifty,Nifty Futures all reversed exactly from the Parallel CHannel.
      This is why i have mentioned that either Technical Analysts are not analyzing well or they are not good at it.
      Coz this has been 4th bottom on a parallel channel !!

      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
      • Pulkit Kumar June 22, 2010, 11:20

        Sensex, Nifty and Nifty FUT have strangely behaved in different ways in the wave. You can see that on charts. The parallel channel has held beautifully on Sensex.

        Reply
        • nooresh June 22, 2010, 19:54

          Hi Pulkit,
          Well while looking into parallel channels i dont look into 20-30 points variance and not in to hourly charts at all.
          So if u plot the channels well then it has been the same way for last 3-4 bottoms.
          Regards,
          Nooresh

          Reply
  • chirag June 22, 2010, 09:49

    your analysis is to good your work superb and your predication analysis

    Reply
    • nooresh June 22, 2010, 10:30

      Hi Chirag,

      Hope you made good use of it.

      Reply
  • Dipesh June 22, 2010, 13:40

    Ankur if you study Astrology, then you must know “Cardinal Climax” expected in August 2010. I don’t want to explain much in detail for “Cardinal Climax”, as you are claiming you are astrologer, you must know the effect and danger of CC.

    Nooresh, I am expecting Vertical Fall due to planetory situation and global melt-down starting from August and Market will hit 52 week low in October. I hope all this will start developing in your charts, slowly buy steadily. Keep Bird’s Eye on Small Signals like “Spinning Tops” and Intraday Weakness on Charts starting August, till that time ride the bull and earn enough.

    Current run-up will be major false breakout above 5400 (may rise to 5500-5555 levels), catching every tom dick and harry in the market.

    Steep and hardest fall of 2 years in the ofing !!

    Thanks.
    Dipesh.

    Reply
    • nooresh June 22, 2010, 19:53

      Hi Dipesh,
      I am not a keen believer or follower of astrology for financial predictions as i keep getting different viewpoints on the same.
      Although you do expect a correction but it would be good if you could give some levels expected on downside.
      Also tell me whether this move to 5400 was expected as per Astro ?

      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
  • harun June 22, 2010, 13:41

    What is the problem with ifci sir ? will it ever move up ? everytime faces stiff res around 55 – 56 and comes down . is it necessary for a stock to go down when it is ban in futures ? what should we do with dlf sir ? tgt n stops for dlf and ifci and bharti tele sir . i am long in these three stocks

    Reply
    • nooresh June 22, 2010, 14:36

      Hi Arun,

      IFCI has been in this range so we booked part of the profits at 56 and holding with 52 stoploss. Time to be patient 🙂

      Regards,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  • Mihir June 22, 2010, 14:45

    Nooresh bhai,

    First of all, thanks for such a great post!!…

    I have one q- looks like heritage foods has given a breakout…what is the target??
    any idea of this stock?

    Thanks again!

    Reply
  • ankur June 22, 2010, 19:59

    I have update on my astro -view. If any fall persits around 10.20 am onwards then markets will fall heavily otherwise one can expect nifty above 5500 on expiry

    Reply
  • Vipin June 22, 2010, 20:19

    Any reality in this theory…
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9zUxUwcbh0

    Reply
  • rochak parekh June 22, 2010, 21:54

    HELLO FRIENDS,
    with the blessings of Shri SAINATH MAHARAJ & inspiration of Mr. I lango ji, Javed bhai, Nooresh bhai,Jagmohan ji, Laxmi ramchandran ji, Nandi ji, Amol bhai, Shai, Gautam, San, Amit, Rajgopal and other well wishers, i too decided to start a blog of myself on todays auspicious day of EKADASHI.
    please have a look at it and please dont refrain urslf from commenting on it, be it a appraisal or a criticism, since it would help me only to improve myself.
    thanks
    looking forward for a co-operation from my trader community brothers.
    JAI SAINATH
    regards

    Reply
    • nooresh June 23, 2010, 00:27

      Hi Rochak,
      In the start i would suggest you keep the blog as private till you become confident on your technical projections as when you write in a public forum people might start following you which is a great responsibility.

      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
  • Siju Thomas June 22, 2010, 22:51

    Hi Nooresh
    i have been a regular follower of your blog since few years.
    You are excellent at charts.the best across industry.
    I remember the first look was in a black background.
    Your work was better in past.
    Right now all you do is promotion of your technical courses.
    Your real analysis has gone out and only promotion has come in.

    Reply
    • nooresh June 23, 2010, 00:26

      Hi Siju,
      Good to know you have been reading the analysis.
      Since the black background many changes have come in the blog.
      Giving lot of free stuff on the blog led to people copying and using the same:) for unethical purposes. AlSo for good clean information i dont use Advertisement blocks which could be a good
      revenue model too.
      The work for now remains the same but some part of it goes to paid clients and giving all for free wont be fair on the loyal clients.
      For the technical analysis courses i will keep promoting it as thats the only way we can make people independent.
      Still prefer people learn and become independent by reading the blog or through or courses though business wise Advisory pulls in consistent recurring revenue.

      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
  • Keyser Söze June 23, 2010, 13:46

    When 2008s happen, all the “good” and “don’t know how to work” TAs get hammered alike. Don’t they? Both types end up changing their blogs, abandon their old websites, and start afresh. All desire n deserve a chance to get back up on their feet. 🙂

    Analysing markets is all about psychology. Understanding one’s own is especially harder – something even Freud couldn’t do. You have risen above that Freudian state of mind. Be gleeful! You are one of the top 5% traders in the world. People who “don’t know how to work” are perhaps still trying to make sense of this chaotic market, which is not easy. But don’t try to paint them black to appear in white, although you will succeed. Markets spare no one. It’ll chew and spit you before you even realize what happened. Good luck!!!

    Reply
    • nooresh June 23, 2010, 14:40

      Hi Keyser,
      Well i continue to accept my mistakes like the biggest one was in October 2008 where i expected 10.5k to hold. Also recently i have mentioned that i shud have taken a more bearish stance at 18k rather then cautious.

      Nowadays many so-called analysts are coming up without any track record or experience to become advisors. Some of them are copying like you can see from the earlier comment. So one needs to understand the logic behind the calls we give thats why i tend to make tedious presentations!!

      In the last 3 bottoms its been a clear logic of parallel channels working so that is simple to look into for a normal technical analyst but somehow majority missed it !!!

      Nothing against the other analysts as i do respect a few of them.

      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
      • Keyser Söze June 23, 2010, 20:31

        The best part about studying markets is that it enlightens. An analyst challenges himself everytime he makes a forecast. And each time, either thru success or failure, he MUST come out with some insight about how his mind functions. If he doesn’t, I say he failed, even if he ended up making money of his trade. Because, eventually he will fail big time since he is under a wrong impression about himself.

        BTW, instead of talking about others, why don’t you discuss the possibility of a H&S developing in Nifty? Only one requirement remains to be fulfilled. Look carefully. It will be worth your matter and minutes.

        Reply
        • nooresh June 23, 2010, 23:54

          Hi Keyser,
          Well i like to keep it simple when it goes with technical analysis then to complicate it. So if i go wrong i just accept and take the hit rather then rambling about it. Also i dont try to forecast a lot but yes last 3 times i have tried to pick bottoms to which i would prefer finding breakout points. As of now the medium term channel shows no chances of breakout so have to stick to risk-reward and forecasting.

          Well for the record i have many a times mentioned that according to me a HNS is not a predictive pattern and one should not be worried about its development but its a pattern where one needs to react on breakdown below the neckline.
          Till then the no of possibilities may abound and can create a bias in the technical analysts view.

          For now the only HNS i see which is fully developed was at 15600 break with a target price of 18k-18.6k and 23k this ceases to exist once 15600 goes. Rest there can also be lots of other possibilities which i would look only when its fully developed.

          Regards,

          Nooresh

          Reply
  • Meetesh Kuahd June 23, 2010, 13:57

    Dear Nooresh,

    Your calls continue to be superb as always. Can you please guide me with PSL Ltd. I am having 11k shares and have seen it under perform for the last one year now. Can i continue to hold it if i wish to have a holding period of five years and where do you think it is placed technically.
    Thanks in advance.

    Reply
    • nooresh June 23, 2010, 14:31

      Hi Meetesh,
      As i might have mentioned before the stock looks sideways ! I would prefer to shift

      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
  • bindu khaitan June 23, 2010, 14:07

    i just now visited a site orangerich.in. i was shocked to see that they are shamelessly copying all calls of nooresh. please do something abt it.

    Reply
    • nooresh June 23, 2010, 14:31

      Hi Bindu,

      There are many people copying our calls!! I would urge readers to let us know of the same as well by commenting here. We will look into the matter.

      Regards,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  • bindu khaitan June 23, 2010, 14:35

    hi freinds
    this is to inform u all that recently i came accross a site orangerich.in. they are copying all calls of nooresh word by word. its really shocking please beware of such cheaters

    Reply
  • bindukhaitan June 23, 2010, 14:37

    dear freinds
    please beware of copycats they are copying all calls of nooresh http://www.orangerich.in

    Reply
  • pooja June 23, 2010, 14:44

    good analysis noor …learning lot of things from u r blog daily ….pls tell me u r views about gammon infra and kei industries

    Reply
  • hesh June 23, 2010, 16:22

    hello sir,
    hesh here ur dhanbank call rocked. here i attached one weekly nifty chart just check it & reply(other members also can reply).

    http://www.icharts.in/forum/nifty-weekly-invert-hunds-pattern-t2480.html
    Thanks 4 ur reply.

    Reply
    • nooresh June 23, 2010, 17:18

      Hi Hesh,
      Hope u made money on Dhanalaxmi Bank 🙂
      For the inverted head and shoulders. I have always mentioned till we dont cross the neckline there is no pattern existent.
      So i would suggest not to predict but react when this pattern is seen.

      Regards,
      Nooresh

      Reply
  • Meetesh Kuhad June 23, 2010, 17:06

    Dear Nooresh,
    So do you think PSL will stay sideways for a long time to come ??? Can it be a buy/hold for long term investors ?

    Reply
    • nooresh June 23, 2010, 17:09

      Meetesh,
      Investment depends on relative analysis. I would prefer growth stocks like Camlin and Navneet as long term rather then consistent performers.
      Expect it to remain sideways for couple of mths

      Reply
  • ankur June 24, 2010, 07:49

    as predicted I told that trader will be winner if they keep on selling on every rise. Today as per astrology, markets seem to be positive nifty may close above 5400 . Any sustaining positive move shall be confirmed around 1 pm.
    I would suggest to buy 5400 calls that may turn out to be jackpot for traders.

    Reply
    • nooresh June 25, 2010, 02:08

      Ankur,
      As of now we are now waiting and watching more with intra trades only on Nifty.

      Reply
  • ankur June 25, 2010, 10:50

    30 June and 1 July together will atleast gain 500 points in Sensex particularly small-mid caps will outperform the markets in these two days even how markets remain rangebound in exception. Today will be day to bet on scrips at lower level for good gains till 1st july. I expect whatever markets makes low today will not seen atleast before 1 july. Markets shall give gap-up opening on Monday. Beware markets can go negative intraday on 30 june which shall be false signal. During 30 June/1 July IFCI shall cross 60+.
    I would like to ask Mr. Nooresh whether charts of IFCI still giving any breakout signal so that I could confidently purchase shares today .

    Reply
    • nooresh June 28, 2010, 14:31

      Ankur,
      Lets hope the bull move u expect comes in 🙂

      Reply

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