Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

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Hindustan Unilever – Strong Buy. Stock Specific Momentum to continue

Sensex Technical View:

As of now everyone has been trying to go short on the index in the hopes of a turnaround. But that is a sort of taking a wild shot at possibilities.

Technically near term resistance is 18900 - Reason it was the top made after the correction in Jan 2008.

I still dont see any negative signs so will stick with the current momentum and follow discipline of putting in strict stoplosses !!!!!!!!!

Some Basic Rules and Gyaan to follow in coming months ( I do expect a dip and then maybe euphoric move so need to put discipline in place first)  :

STOPLOSS - Will become an important word in days to come as some day the momentum can subside in specific stocks till then enjoy the RIDE πŸ™‚

 

PENNY STOCKS-  Quick Money is not the thing to go for now. Avoid dabba,chakry stocks. As soon we could see lots of unsolicited SMS/Mails πŸ™‚

 

MOMENTUM : Riding the momentum trades requires lots of discipline. If you are not tracking markets closely dont jump into momentum stocks. If you do so put a system stoploss in place.

 

RISK MANAGEMENT: With lots of internal news working out superbly as sentiments are good people tend to get over exposed to one stock. Stick to diversification at current levels as not all stocks are very cheaply priced. Concentrated portfolio with high weightage to one stock is good in suppressed markets.

 

LEVERAGE: Although as of now going leveraged on stocks like HUL is fine as volatility is low but going for huge Derivative positions can make you lose out on the gains accumulated till now. If using leverage keep a stoploss on entire portfolio. Also exitting partial positions is also fine - There is no rule to exit at one go ( Partial Loss booking to i have never heard )

 

RESEARCH : In good sentiments quality of research goes down badly. Dont compromise on your stock selection process. Rather become more conservative !

 

Stocks to watchout for :

 

Hindustan Unilever - A personal favorite is a must for every trading and investment portfolio - Buy and keep for 1-3 months and then join us. Technical View posted - http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2010/09/strong-technical-pick-hindustan-unilever.html 

 

GMDC has given a strong breakout and is headed to 145-150 in short term. Recommended at 132 to clients.

Noida Toll Bridge buy on dips for a target of 40.

JBF Inds - Finally a strong breakout should head to 180 in extreme short term. Recommended at 140 in Delivery Gains. Time for some momentum

INDO rama synthetics posted some days back has given a breakout shud tgt 48-52.

Shree Ashta Vinayak is moving up on the back of Dabangg release it seems. Good time to book profits ! or exit. Highly overvalued

 

National Steel, Hatsun Agro, Provogue,Sangam India look interesting on charts

    S...
              

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Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2596 articles.

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{ 22 comments… add one }
  • Pritesh Palan September 9, 2010, 06:32

    Hi Nooresh,

    any views on Piramal Health?

    Reply
  • Mihir September 9, 2010, 09:23

    Hello,

    boss – what to do with accentia? its zooming everyday..
    what is the range for fresh buy? now ? or wait for sometime

    thanks!

    Reply
  • bhavin September 9, 2010, 14:16

    sir pls throw light on indramasyn your recent recomandation?

    Reply
  • Himanshu Gupta September 9, 2010, 16:18

    wats the SL on Indo Rama Synthetics (India) Ltd ….bought @ 42 today

    Regards
    Himanshu

    Reply
  • Manish September 9, 2010, 17:24

    Nooreshji ,
    Can u kindly interpret the postponement of the AGM of Indo Rama Synthetics and the downturn in share price today ? Ive bought the same @ 42 anticipating the breakout . Wonder if i shud retain the same or exit . Thanks

    Reply
  • xyz September 10, 2010, 01:39

    Should I book profits in following stocks .. Delta corp @ 42 nila @ 2 and rishi laser @ 45 .. Currently booked camlin@54 n entered noida toll bridge … I can keep them all for 2-3 yrs

    Reply
  • rochak September 10, 2010, 14:05

    Hello friends

    EID mubarak to all my muslim friends over here

    EID GIFT FROM MY SIDE

    EID SONGS POSTED ON MY BLOG

    http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/09/10000-carrying-on.html

    CHAAND RAAT MUBARAK

    EID MUBARAK

    Reply
  • rochak September 10, 2010, 14:07

    NOORESH BHAI & TEAM MATES

    CHAAND RAAT MUBARAK

    EID MUBARAK TO ALL YOU

    ALLAH KHAIR KARE

    Reply
  • shivaji September 10, 2010, 16:31

    hi nooresh in one of your 3 possibilities scenario you had expected a pullback to 17200 and deploy cash around those levels keeping 16900 as SL. now we are at 18900 resistance zone and it does not make sense to make fresh positions. what is your view on making fresh position in market. i am waiting for 17200 level to enter rather than now. when can we expect 17200 levels as september-october months would yield drops in equity.. You have also mentioned ” i expect a dip and euphoria to continue later” when r you seeing that dip ??? pl share your views… : )

    Reply
    • nooresh September 12, 2010, 23:13

      Hi Shivaji,

      In one my recent updates at 17800 have mentioned to buy at 17800-17200. But as of now difficult to say 17200 would come as we have already broken out. Testing of 18400-18000 is the next bet after this first upmove. But as of now its a stock specific market. But as of now no signals to go short.

      Reply
  • Rakesh September 11, 2010, 00:11

    Nooresh,

    Here’s wishing you and your team at Analyse India a Very Happy Eid.

    Rakesh

    Reply
    • nooresh September 12, 2010, 23:12

      Hi Rakesh,

      Thanks πŸ™‚

      Reply
  • Nirmal September 11, 2010, 01:12

    Nooresh,

    You analysis looks excellent !

    I have been catching out the similarites between 1929-1930 crash for the past 2 months and the current 2010 seems to be similar. As it is obvious every tom, dick and harry seems to be bullish across the globe, only few are bearish…as Market only rewards 10% of the population and rest 90% of the population must have to loose and thats the truth of the market.

    I do find few points well explained by Walter Zimmerman

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1587945152&play=1

    Could you please share your views about the 1929-30 pattern and the current one.

    Thanks
    Nirmal

    Reply
    • nooresh September 12, 2010, 23:10

      Hi Nirmal ,

      Do go through the archives to get more details on the analysis posted in last few years.

      Well there have been just too many Depression callers looking for a similarity to justify a negative view which is biased. So there is someone with a possible Head and Shoulders and Right Shoulder still in making which is crap technicals. Well if you go around there are more of cautious people as of now with good cash on hand. Also the above depression fellas did call for major correction for last 1 yr.

      For the record my view point on the Dow Depression in precise technical setup was discussed in April 2009. Hope this seems precise as markets did that Superb Opportunity.

      http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2009/04/sensex-elliot-wave-with-dow-depression.html

      Do check and revert

      Reply
  • jayanthi September 11, 2010, 09:34

    sir,
    what is view about IDBI bank. I bought it at 119. can i hold , what is the target. please suggest if i can hold or book profit.

    thanks

    Reply
    • nooresh September 12, 2010, 22:51

      Hi Jayanthi,

      Its been an underperformer for long but it seems finally it will catch up with the huge move in Banks. So hold on

      Reply
  • SIVA PRAKASH September 12, 2010, 17:01

    Sir,
    I have a doubt for the last 3 years, if u can pls let me know ur view
    ” Why US can’t print more dollers to get out of financial crisis?”
    People say it will lead to inflation. But if a country is in deflation, can it print more currency? Currently US has a huge debt, and US$ is an international currency, so i think it can print more dollers and sell it to countries like China. US want China to reduse exchange rate of Chinees currency to bring trade balance between US and China. If US print more dollers then it naturally lead to devaluing US $ , by which US can reduse current a/c defficit . Bt Why it can’t do this…..?

    pls help me to clarify my doubt

    regards
    Siva

    Reply
    • nooresh September 12, 2010, 22:47

      Hi Siva,

      I consider myself a novice in economics and global scenarios πŸ™‚

      The logic of printing money and selling it to China is not the way it goes. Its a complex economical proceedure. But only thing i know is what US did was necessary to keep it floating in the recession.

      Reply
  • PRATIK MORE September 12, 2010, 20:48

    sir i hv bght rico auto as per ur rcmndtn @30 lvl. wat should 2 do hold or exit. pls reply.

    regards
    pratik
    9830336464.

    Reply
  • PRATIK MORE September 12, 2010, 20:50

    sir i hv also bgth tanla soltn 500 shares @ 64 lv. wat shuld 2 do rite nw . pls advice me. hold or book loss.

    regards
    pratik
    8013713195.

    Reply
    • nooresh September 12, 2010, 22:44

      Hi Pratik,

      Maintain hold for 1-3 months.

      Cheers,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  • rochak September 12, 2010, 22:41

    Hello friends

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    OM SAI RAM

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    Reply

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