Technical view by Nooresh

Sensex headed to 18800-19000 ? Medium Term 20500 !!

Find attached below the Presentation done at Thane.


Has a few additional stock recommendations :)





Sensex Technical View:


Sensex hit a new high for the year today and suddenly people on the street are not ready to believe it :). Well i had mentioned about the way broader indices have already given a breakout in July ---

Small- Cap and Mid-Caps Rallied – Were you left looking at the Sensex !!!


Many of the people have been eagerly waiting for the update on Sensex after todays move --- Everyone has the question Market Kya Lagta Hai ?


Answer :

Market accha hi lagta hai. As i have been mentioning my favored scenario is 20500 being reached in the next 6-9 months. Downsides to 17800/17200 were mentioned. We did see a dip to 17800 confirming the minimum dip needed.



Now let us look into Sensex Technical Observations :


1) Price Analysis suggested a topping out scenario around the higher end of the channel at 18400. We did see a top around 18475 but the dip only retraced to 23.6% which came around 17800. The expectation was anywhere between 17800/17200. Sustaining above 18600 will suggest a good breakout situation !

Price Analysis


2) Time Analysis

In the last moves between 15500-18000 the upmoves were for 40-45 sessions and downmove for 20-25 sessions roughly. This basis made us time the markets exactly last few times.

This time around Sensex has already surpassed 75 sessions which clearly indicates the Pattern of Flip Flop is no more and we will have a big Directional Move in coming months.


3) Classical Pattern Analysis

In the last 1 year market has been in Parallel Channels. As of now we can confirm a breakout for the index once it starts closing above 18600 levels. The Channel size has roughly been 2500 points.So if we consider the breakout then Sensex should go towards 21000 over the medium term on confirmation.

In the near term we have a solid bottom base at 17800 which makes a simple stoploss for medium term :)

As of now its a higher top higher bottom formation.

Till we dont get a drop below 17800 we may continue to go with the trend :)



Many of us may feel valuations look stretched !! - Is it because they were highly suppressed a year back at 8-10k levels ? Or is it the hangover of the big drop in 2008 which is keeping everyone cautious and fuelling the current rally?

Well as a Technical Analyst i am not supposed to answer the above questions :) and stick to what the Charts Tell. So till i dont get a negative signal from them will continue to stick to the Bullish View.

Will review around 18800-19000 which remains a short term resistance. Previous top after the fall of Jan 2008 is around 18900. Short term trendlines around those levels.

Ideally a time wise review comes around Sept end.Till then Enjoy the ride :)

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2531 articles.

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{ 6 comments… add one }
  • Mahesh September 6, 2010, 23:32

    Hi Nooresh

    The link for Seminar Presentation is not working.

    • nooresh September 7, 2010, 01:11

      Check Now … Editted

  • amit September 7, 2010, 00:09

    presentation not opening…………………..

  • sanjay September 7, 2010, 11:09

    Excellent presentation.. Thanks nooresh.

    I think you should forward this to Mr.Sharma.
    Pathetically pessimist and a fraud i suppose..

  • shivaji September 10, 2010, 16:27

    hi nooresh in one of your 3 possibilities scenario you had expected a pullback to 17200 and deploy cash around those levels keeping 16900 as SL. now we are at 18900 resistance zone and it does not make sense to make fresh positions. what is your view on making fresh position in market. i am waiting for 17200 level to enter rather than now. when can we expect 17200 levels as september-october months would yield drops in equity.. You have also mentioned ” i expect a dip and euphoria to continue later” when r you seeing that dip ??? pl share your views… : )

  • sanjay September 10, 2010, 19:31

    Mr shivaji, i guess nooresh in his all the articles has made it clear that there would be stock specific moves.
    Sensex up or down doesnt matter what matters is the individual technical performance of stocks.. So look out for stock specific moves and even if sensex reaches 20K there would be opportunities in market.. but risk increases.


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