Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

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Will Midcaps follow the Sensex Move – Lets Wait and Watch

Sensex Technical View:

 

The current move in Sensex is a clear example of what happens on a Technical Breakout !! I had been discussing this possibility of 20500 for a long time now and within 2 weeks of breakout its at 20k.

When we see a 30-40% move up in stocks its easy to digest but a similar 10% move in Sensex is difficult πŸ™‚ thats how markets are and one should never go against the trend.

Me made a mistake of taking a high risk short at 5825-5840 stoploss of 5865. Luckily part booking was done at 5785 in dips so a 30 point loss but the discipline kept us out. As of now will wait for a trend change or any technical signal to short till then just wait and watch.

Short term range should now shift to 19500-20500 band. Fresh Index entry can only be done closer to 18500 on technicals.

Be stock specific. As i had mentioned before that Small Caps/Midcaps had rallied much before then the index - http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2010/08/small-cap-and-mid-caps-rallied-were-you-left-looking-at-the-sensex.html 

 

For now in the last 2 weeks of breakout the midcaps/smallcaps have not performed. Will we again see that Sensex consolidates and Midcaps start moving up. This is just a thought but will need to observe the next few days to get clarity.

TRENDSensex

 

STRONG TECHNICAL PICK -

Moderate Risk - High Returns :

 

Reliance Capital - Buy at 825-835 stoploss 805 target 875/930 in 1-2 months.

 

The stock has given a strong technical breakout today with decent volumes.

Take a position only where you can digest the stoploss of 805 which is 4%. If you cannot digest then you are taking a position larger then your risk. Technically its a clean breakout but the history of the stock shows its highly volatile thats why its been mentioned to be moderate risk else its a low risk high return trade possibly similar to HUL !

Disclosure: Recommended to clients at 828-835 today.

RCAP

IDBI :

The stock has been a laggard in the banking space but has recently given indications of a breakout. Buying can be done at current with a closing stoploss of 138. If that breaks we could see 132. Upside target 160 + in next 1-2 months.

Disclosure:  RECOMMMENDED AT 144 to clients and free Newsletter Subscribers ( Fill the form u get on the blog)

 

SUN PHARMA

Another nice trade we had from 1830 to 1910-1940. The stock should even head to 1990-2050 in near term. Was advised to clients at 1830 and Blog readers who subscribed to the newsletters at 1860

SUNzoom

Hindustan Unilever- hope people made tons of money in this strong technical pick suggested at 275.

HULzoom

 

Stocks to watchout for :

Weird Small Cap Pick - Malu Paper Mills - Risk 10% Reward 30% in short term. Siemens look set for 800-820 in near term. High risk buy on dips for 1 week.

 

 

Cheers,

 

Nooresh

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2596 articles.

You can follow Nooresh Tech on Facebook and Twitter here.


{ 17 comments… add one }
  • Amit September 22, 2010, 12:50

    Sir in RCAP Stop Loss is on closing basis or its intraday basis?

    Reply
  • hesh September 22, 2010, 15:36

    As always ur research help us a lot.
    malu paper & rel.capital nice on chart will breakout shortly!!!

    He$H…

    Reply
  • hesh September 22, 2010, 15:58

    I forget to write that time techno i bought as per ur call but not move as expected!!!
    Bought @55
    Reply soon…
    Also check icici bank chart mail u on gmail id.

    He$H…

    Reply
    • nooresh September 22, 2010, 22:40

      GOT STOPPED out in Time

      Reply
      • hesh soni September 23, 2010, 10:36

        so i have 2 exit from time techno!!!

        Reply
  • PRATIK MORE September 22, 2010, 20:46

    DEAR NOORESH JI,

    I M PRATIK FROM KOLKATA,

    AS PER UR RCMNDTN (NOT BLAMNG TO U SIR EVEN THOUGH I HV EARNED MONEY FROM UR RCMNDTN LIKE IN KSCL, ARVIND, ALPHAGEO, AKSH OPTIFIBRE & HUL ETS. SIR, THANKS FOR THIS).

    I HV BOUGHT RICO AUTO @30 * 1000 SHRS & INDO RAMA @43 *1000 SHRS. WHAT SHULD TO DO RITE NW.

    WILL WAIT FOR THE UPWARD MOMENT OR CAN AVG AT THIS LVL.

    I ALWAYS BELIVE IN UR VIEWS & WAIT EAGERLY AT MORNING 4 UR NEWSLETTERS IN MU E-MAILS SIR, IF U RCMND ANY STCKS, G8 FOLLOWER OF U.

    I NVR CHCKS ITS FUNDAMENTALS, BCOZ U HV RCMND SIR. I ALYS REQ U 2 TK SEMINAR AT KOLKATA. I WL TK D RESPNSBLTY 4 ALL ARNGMNT SIR.

    PLS PLS PLS HELP ME OUT.

    REGARDS
    PRATIK MORE
    KOLKATA.

    Reply
    • nooresh September 22, 2010, 22:40

      Hi Pratik,

      Rico Auto has been testing patience. Stoploss is 26.5. Indo Rama Synthetics stoploss 38 on closing bsis.

      Dhunseri TEa looks interesting

      Reply
      • Sunayana September 27, 2010, 14:37

        Hi Nooresh,

        Rico Auto has been really testing patience. Very close to your stop loss. Do you still maintain a 1-3 mths wait as suggested earlier?
        Kindly let me know. I bought a chunk at 29.5 on seeing your reco.

        Regards.
        Sunayana.

        Reply
        • Sunayana September 30, 2010, 10:58

          Hi Nooresh,

          Are you stopped out on Rico Auto??

          Regards.
          Sunayana.

          Reply
          • nooresh September 30, 2010, 20:32

            Yes got stopped our at 26 odd πŸ™ Bad trade

  • Prasanoracle September 22, 2010, 20:46

    Nooresh,
    Few more feather(s) to your crown today:
    SunPharma touched 1983.75 today. Your clients with this stock would have celebrated πŸ™‚
    HUL strong move today (low – 289 and LTP-298). Great TA done. Keep it going.

    Looking forward to meet you / your team on the Bangalore TA session on Oct’10.

    Thanks,
    Prasan.

    Reply
    • nooresh September 22, 2010, 22:39

      Hi Prasana,

      The reasons for the same were given on the blog πŸ™‚ Good if u made some money on it.

      Yes will soon meet people in bangalore

      Cheers,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  • shivaji September 22, 2010, 22:58

    Dear Nooresh i have been observing your momentum line since october 2009 and it worked really well and we had 10% fall atleast but this time when ever momentum line broken market went higher and went above line even after breaking and it has happened 4 times in this rally.. how one should read such situation… has the momentum line failed this time?????

    Also pl post ur view on crude πŸ™‚

    Reply
  • swamy September 23, 2010, 07:13

    be careful ur running the virusprogram

    Reply
  • swamy September 23, 2010, 07:16

    what is the problem when i open ur site virus program running , also thefting creditcard nos,bankaaacount nos

    Reply
  • swamy September 23, 2010, 07:48

    kis11.0.10400en.exe.part running ur site

    Reply
    • nooresh September 24, 2010, 01:33

      Hi Swamy,

      I havent got a similar prob from any other reader but will get it checked

      Reply

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