Technical view by Nooresh

Sensex at 21k – Cautious doesnt mean Bearish

The previous view at 18k which was presented in August 2010 which gave a target of 20500 in next 2-3 quarters and as always targets have been achieved in a quicker manner !

As i had mentioned that i would come out with a detailed view as and when we touch 20500. So here i am with a fresh view which is cautious but not Bearish at all in the medium term.

Well the presentation i suppose would be simpler to understand. Click on link below to download.


Sensex at 21k - Cautious doesnt mean Bearish


i would suggest readers to pass the link to this website which is updated for last 4 years regularly with almost a post every day ! and providing honest/ precise views on Stocks/Sensex/Commodities and lots of gyaan be referred to their friends/colleagues and whomsoever who can benefit from the views posted here.

At the same time would urge readers to comment on the views posted for a healthy discussion.

Also tomorrow would be posting another Small Cap Coverage Pick - H.. .... which has been recommended to Delivery Gains clients recently.





Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2532 articles.

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{ 15 comments… add one }
  • Mihir Mehta October 4, 2010, 00:28

    Hi, Nooresh,

    I think India is in a very good bull market and we will see higher levels in
    the market. My presumption is on below points.

    – India’s own consumption theme
    – The way we handled the credit crisis.. no major company got effected
    very badly except for a normal slowdown
    – We didnt take more than a year to recover what we lost (be it index
    level, growth, corporate profitability etc.)
    – No major growing market in world
    – indian people are still underinvested to a very large extent
    – currently everyone is just waiting for the correction to happen and it
    may turnout to be the main reason why a meaningful correction is difficult

    I would like your views on the same. The reasons i have mentioned are broad
    reason and i have purposefully excluded the valuation bec no one can tell me
    what is the fair value of the market and how many years in past market have
    traded on fair value basis!!!

    I would like you to give me your expert comment on the following stocks

    – Godfrey Philips: second largest tobacco player. small equity and
    smaller float. product includes from bidi to cigar.. retail stores and
    chewing tobacco. trading at appx 20 time past earnings
    – Hikal ltd: a chemical company, good track record and management.
    Available at very reasonable valuations
    – Jyothy lab: all brokerage now covers it but the major shoot up may come
    if the company gets the contract for the DRDO product which will change the
    – Precision wires: A company whose products are used in the white goods
    segment. very good management and dividend history.

    In case you want we can discuss at length abt any of these company and find
    out the true potential.

  • UB October 4, 2010, 01:30

    Hi Nooresh
    Excellent posting as always.I suppose the short term uptrend will continue for 2-3 weeks more, after that we can expect healthy correction.Although stock specific action to continue.Dlf is a good bet like you said.Another stock i would like to bring to your attention is Essar Oil.Some cyclicals are pointing better times.


    • nooresh October 4, 2010, 16:45

      Hi UB ,

      DLF was discussed at 340s :) for 400.
      Essar Oil i dont understand

  • Rakesh October 4, 2010, 09:32


    Excellent Analysis, keep up the good work.


  • Ramprasad October 4, 2010, 10:26

    Hi Nooresh,

    Very good analysis as always.Hats off !

    Recent/swift upmove from 18K to 20.5K which happened on Sensex does not seem to have much impact on midcap/small caps as I don’t see much of price action in those counters.Any thoughts on that ?

  • Mihir October 4, 2010, 14:29

    Nooresh bhai,

    once again…you rock man..excellent analysis and presentation.

    Thanks again!!

    • nooresh October 4, 2010, 16:43

      Hi Mihir,

      Thanks. Btw training session in Bangalore on October 16-17

  • Mohit October 4, 2010, 15:43

    Dear Sir,


  • kunal October 4, 2010, 15:56

    hi nooresh……you are great great analyst….i hold time techno as u suggested as strong technical pick 1month whats ur view now on it….

    • nooresh October 4, 2010, 16:43

      Hi Kunal,

      Market is great :) and supreme no one else is.

      Time Techno stopped out

  • Sachin October 4, 2010, 21:31

    Hi Nooresh,

    Any chance of training session in Pune?


  • robert October 5, 2010, 09:14

    I can’t open the file. Isn’t there a summary easier to read?

  • ct veerappan October 6, 2010, 17:33

    nf is going to crack dear… 5700-5489 possible in coming days…take care

    • nooresh October 7, 2010, 13:03

      Hi Veerapan,

      Thx for ur warning


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