Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

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Scam/Bribe and Timing !

Although i might not be well qualified for the view on the current Scam or bribery announcement. But there are serious questions which can be raised which have not been answered.

- > Is the current scandal a scam for fake loans or is it a bribery scandal. If its scam is it going to turn into NPAs for Banks or is it just a case where bribes were taken to expedite the process πŸ™‚ ( Corruption is a way of life in government run institutions)

- > Which are the companies involved and whether loans are backed by assets or is the money been siphoned off which doesnt seem to be the case.

 

Now some questions which came in an evening discussions and not all are my views

- > Money Matters Financial was recently quoting at a market cap of 2000 + crores and had become a leader in the Debt Market. For the record ENAM was taken over at 2100 crores. Motilal is valued at 2400 crores.

- > So was it a case of too quick too fast for a company of such scale ? Also company could raise 465 crores recently in a QIP. Could it also be some rivalry or a market correction πŸ™‚ for business share!

- > Also the timing of the inquiry is very unusual a day before expiry at 2.30 pm. Will we see a huge cost of carry this expiry too !

- > Banking Stocks have already corrected 20% from the peaks before the scam.

- > Sensex has dropped 10% from the peak already on back of a stream of bad news.

 

One thing that struck my mind – Before January 2008  ! we saw a Participatory Note announcement and a 10% lower circuit making a low of 17k and ending up at 21k in next 3 months. Uncanny resemblance/ wishful thinking – Time will Tell !

 

The questions keep going and going but one thing which is certain is this will bring in good governance and Markets have never topped out with a scam ! but bottomed out with one.

 

Maintain the long term view on index. Best case we bottom around 19200/19350 or go to 18500-18800 ( only if there is some more forced news ). Investors can continue to start dipping into their cash reserves and keep buying till 18500-18800 or on move above 20100. Review the situation in end of December.

 

I havent been able to update much in the last week due to technical problem with my system. So will be back on track from next week.

 

Regards,

Nooresh

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2555 articles.

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{ 14 comments… add one }
  • Manish November 25, 2010, 11:23

    Power grid should we hold or sell the FPO allotment.
    what you see Power grids in short & medium term.

    Reply
  • bhanu November 25, 2010, 11:29

    Missed you, when you are not around and no updates, it seems little scarry out there,
    Can apollo be averaged now has it come down enough to put more money?

    Also I am holding following stocks with good returns, should i hold or exit.

    Sical Logistics
    Rohit ferrow
    Hunung toys

    thanks
    bhanu

    Reply
  • JP November 25, 2010, 11:45

    Hi Nooresh,
    Thanks for excellanct suggestion. I am following your suggestion and comments. Do you think its a right time to inverse money on Banks? Can you suggest which bank share we can buy now with margin?

    Reply
  • Gaurav November 25, 2010, 12:30

    Hey Nooresh,

    Nice Article!!!
    You still think Vimta Labs is a doubler in 12 to 18 months?
    I’ll buy on your confirmation.

    Best Regards
    Gaurav

    Reply
  • mayur November 25, 2010, 13:04

    hey nooresh bhai
    good day sir i had asked a query regarding kesar terminals listing date ,

    and also i would like to know wether you use elliot wave analysis in your analysis

    because according to that analysis navneet and camlin are in a correction phase so what levels can be expected for reentry

    Reply
    • xu November 26, 2010, 00:10

      Its not eliiot its ell(id)iot wave

      Reply
      • mayur November 28, 2010, 16:43

        pls have ur vision corrected before commenting

        Reply
  • mayur November 25, 2010, 13:08

    hi sir mayur here again

    what can be done to the citi union bank call in case of a mkt fall add more at lower levels or
    if stop is hit get out

    thank you

    Reply
  • sandeep November 25, 2010, 13:51

    Yesterday (24/NOV/2010) I had registered for Free Trial (For Free 1 week Trial of Intra Day) on mobile.
    Since then I have not received any free Intra day info on my cell phone (my cell : 9004438839).

    I have been following your posts regularly for quite some time and I am interested in avail your services.

    Regards,
    Sandeep

    Reply
  • Brij November 25, 2010, 17:07

    HI Nooresh,

    Your view on JK Lakshmi Cement please, Stocke creating new lows but fundamentals seems good and intact.

    Brij

    Reply
  • Zulfikarali November 25, 2010, 21:36

    Hi nooresh,
    what’s ur view on modison metals and jmc over the next 2-3 months

    Reply
  • Anubhav November 25, 2010, 21:58

    Nice post Nooresh πŸ™‚

    Plz advice 1-2 stocks as best pick in this falling market, thanks.

    Reply
  • vivek November 26, 2010, 00:17

    Hi Nooresh,
    Today I bought 2000 shares of Sangam India Ltd. @Rs.60 . Please tell me can it go to Rs 70 in short term tenically .

    Reply
  • SATBIR May 18, 2011, 07:37

    SIR , SUPPORT 5440 TAKEN OFF, CAN WE NOW GOING TO 5170-5220 OR STILL ANY BOUNCE EXPECTED, DUE TO SHORT COVERING , WHAT CHARTS SUGGEST
    ON WEEKLY CHARTS HINDALCO FORMING H&S CAN WE SELL NOW OR WAIT TO BREAK 189, SECOND ORCHID BUY NOW WITH SL 302 OR BUY AFTER 320 , WHAT U SUGGEST.

    IT IS CRUSIAL TIME — YOUR COMMENT SIR….

    Reply

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