Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Sensex at 19650 is a crucial position

Sensex19650

Sensex Technical View:

 

Negatives:

1) 19650 on Sensex is a crucial level on closing basis.

2) Sustaining below 19650 on closing basis could take index to 19200/18700 also.

3) Recent bottoms at 19750 has been broken in the day.

 

Positives:

1) Any long term trend change is shown by faster retracement. Upmove from 19750 TOOK 6 SESSIONS.

the downmove has already taken 8 sessions. ( the same theory was used to buy a buy call at 9700 in March 2009)

2) Till we dont see a faster retrcement we cannot term any move as a long term trend changer so any downmoves till then are supposed to be corrective moves.

 

The current selling for today is more of Marging selling. Sustaining below 5925 and 19650 on closing basis would make us change the view. Also todays low is going to be very important for days to come.

 

Bottomline : Investors will need to bear the pain for next 1-2 sessions and be ready to see weird prices on small cap stocks due to panic selling. Also be ready to exit a lot of positions if we close below 19650. Also if index holds on to current levels wont be surprised to see 21k being tested ! I stick to my view of holding Nifty bees and Nifty futures stoploss being 19650 on closing basis and time period 3-4 weeks.

 

Will be posting a detailed technical powerpoint presentation by tomorrow morning for possible

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2613 articles.

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{ 21 comments… add one }
  • chetan November 18, 2010, 12:03

    sirji i have registered for free trail on mobile since last 15 days but i am not getting any calls till yet.

    so i kindly request u to do the same as soon as possible.
    my mobile number-9819114169

    Thanks
    chetan

    Reply
  • bhanu November 18, 2010, 12:14

    hi Nooresh,

    Has Bajaj hindustan broken down? What is the call now Nooresh, Do you still hold bulissh view on Sugar?

    bhanu

    Reply
    • nooresh November 18, 2010, 13:24

      Hi Bhanu,

      Remain bullish on sugars but it will take quite some time to turn up

      Reply
  • Himanshu Gupta November 18, 2010, 12:17

    well said nooresh ….. i agree with you on price rigging in small stocks, but i feel that its gud opprtunity for investors to accumulate small cap scripts @ nice discounts on this panic selling…..plz give us a few small stocks to accumulate in this panic 🙂

    best regards
    Himanshu

    Reply
    • nooresh November 18, 2010, 13:19

      Hi Himanshu,

      As of now many good midcap and large caps are available at attractive levels. Raj Oils is a good buy

      Reply
  • Satbir Kangar November 18, 2010, 13:08

    Thanks Nooresh, as always supporting and guiding on crucial situations.
    we all small investor & trader need your guidance always, thanks.
    what you think about kemrock and makers lab

    Reply
    • nooresh November 18, 2010, 13:15

      Hi Satbir,

      Kemrock is a good buy but long term. Makers Lab no idea on the stock

      Reply
  • Manish November 18, 2010, 13:16

    Nooresh why not replying to my query(did few days back 2 times) 🙁
    it s on Aarvee Denims & Marksans.

    Reply
    • nooresh November 18, 2010, 14:56

      Hi Manish,

      Seems missed it. Aarve above 95. Marksans more speculative

      Reply
  • SANGRAM November 18, 2010, 16:04

    SIR HOLDING HIND OIL EXPO @275 AND EASUN REYRL @ 141. CAN THESE STOCK BE HOLDED FOR 1 YEAR WHAT WOULD BE THE TARGETS?

    Reply
  • Mihir November 18, 2010, 16:26

    Hi Nooresh,

    thanks for the great view and most importantly as usual it worked!!

    so again analyseindia rocks!!

    i have few positions on below stocks and they are happening. need your expert view please

    – astra micro – recently they announced bonus share…
    – kalpena – sebi moved it to T2 segment becasue of not able to comply the electronic share regulation

    – yes bank – its currently corrected a lot …or do you suggest shift to another stock may be some psu banks

    – city union – it has not yet hit the SL…but not showing up move as well..

    thanks for all your help!
    cheers!
    Mihir

    Reply
  • xyz November 18, 2010, 22:26

    Holding 1000 bilt @ 40 , 5000 nila infra @ 2, and 1000 indo bonito @ 11 … Whts ur view on these stocks and some view on network18 they run so many good tv channels with good and successful shows .. Can it be a multibagger

    Reply
    • nooresh November 21, 2010, 10:50

      Hi xyz,

      I remain bullish on Bilt rest i am not so keen on.

      Reply
  • Anupam November 19, 2010, 01:34

    Hi, Nooresh, can I buy SKS MICROFINANCE after todays crash or stay away?

    Reply
    • nooresh November 21, 2010, 10:50

      Hi,

      i see no technical or fundamental reason to buy the stock

      Reply
  • farida November 19, 2010, 10:38

    hi,nooresh
    can we buy lokesh now ?or not?and reliance pl tell me

    Reply
    • nooresh November 21, 2010, 10:50

      Hi,

      Can buy both the stocks slowly for long term

      Reply
  • bhanu November 19, 2010, 12:32

    hi Nooresh,

    do you see any value in Ricoh India?

    bhanu

    Reply
    • nooresh November 21, 2010, 10:48

      Hi Bhanu,

      The liquidty is a concern in Ricoh India.

      Reply
  • Vivek November 23, 2010, 11:53

    Hi Nooresh,

    Have been holding Malu Paper and Prism Cement for quite some time now. What do you suggest?Do you advice booking losses on these?

    Reply
    • nooresh November 24, 2010, 12:02

      Hi Vivek,

      I l;ike Prism for long term. No view on Malu Paper

      Reply

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