Sensex Technical View:
The view remains as before.
Sensex continues to hold on to the 200 dema at 18800 by making a couple of bottoms there in near term.The 200 dema is placed at 18800.
But we need to see a sustaining move above 19150-19200 and followed by that a move above 19600 to get back into the strong uptrend in short term. Till now markets are not able to sustain above 19200 so we will continue to wait and watch
On the downside the supports are as follows.
- > Previous breakout took placed at 18500 and 5550.
- > Long Term Parallel channel is closer to 18000 levels
- >Previous Major Bottom at 17800.
Continue to wait and watch – Focus on stock specific opportunities as Index may get into a consolidation in that case there would be certain big movers and certain laggards.
Just a few thoughts.
The market has been doing nothing over the last few weeks. The earlier view was to get on to high cash on break of 19900 and 19000 levels as a part of precaution and be ready for any drops or sluggish periods.
For the market the basic possibility is a test of 18500 or lower also or sluggish moves before it starts the next directional move. A weaker assumption would be a breakdown below 18000. An optimistic case would be a slow and steady rally from 18500/18800 levels.
In all these case the most obvious possibility is consolidation in a tighter range of 18500-19500 for quite some time.
The major problem with such range bound moves is good trades are very few and not regular. For a trader/investor there is an urge to trade or find a conclusion for the direction.
Sometimes doing Nothing can also be good:) and Cash is also a trading position.
I would consider this period to be a time to learn, read and get ready with better discipline for the next trending move.
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