Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Alert – INDIA VIX at 33-34 levels . ATM Vols also at 31 and OTM vols 35-38 % – Panic indicator at high buy staggered or in sharp declines.

IndiaVix

 

 

The VIX made a high of 36-37 in previous panics as shown in chart.

 

ATM vols of 4900 around 31%

OTM vols  put 4600-4700 at 36-37 %

OTM Vols of calls at 28-29%

 

The markets are pricing in sharp moves to the extent of 5-7% indicating lot of fear and hedging taking place on back of possible global announcements or RBI hit.

 

The last two two times INDIA VIX was above 32 was on 09/08/2011 – Nifty was 4950-500 it bounced to 5195 and next on 26/08/2011 it traded at 32 – Nifty was at 4720-4750 it bounce back to 5150 +.

 

So panic is at high watch if there is a sharp correction one can look for stock specific buying. Nifty support points 4850/4720 in panics.

 

Possible bounce back candidates if there is further drop of 3-5% in following stocks  SBI, M& M , Maruti, LnT , Metals like – Hindalco/Sterlite/Tata Steel and Infrastructure stocks.

 

Buying staggered or on declines should be with a view to exit on bounces.

Only time Index has traded above 38-40 vols has been in 2008 Lehmann collapse period.

Haapy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2556 articles.

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{ 3 comments… add one }
  • hesh September 14, 2011, 18:42

    dear sir,
    as per my technical knowledge rajesh expo is one of thebest for now regarding breakout. above 115 it will reach 124-135 check at ur end & confirm.

    Thanks,
    He$H. . .

    Reply
    • nooresh September 15, 2011, 10:21

      yes Hesh good pick on tech but funda for the stock is odd

      Reply
  • Rohit Agarwal September 24, 2011, 15:43

    I was trying to find more info on India VIX but was unable to find a good website – then I came across http://www.niftyvix.com – it’s quite useful website

    Reply

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