Technical view by Nooresh

RBI Hikes rates by 25 bps or 50 bps and effect on Nifty



Well i have just tried to do a quick plot of RBI hikes and subsequent market movements. Statistically not a very clear co-relation but Index does give a nice directional move over the next few weeks.


Of the things seen major hikes do not come back to back as there is a lag effect to any policy action. So in that case if RBI does want to hike rates sharply it may do with one 0.25 bps for now.


So it does not really matter what happens if RBI does 0.25 bps or says hawkish on the technical side if it holds 4850 then we may expect 5200 also to be tested.


With the volatilities being at 30 + the market seems to be pricing in a lot of panic so we may not see a sharp drop in short term post RBI.


Bottomline – Cracks if any coz of RBI should be used to buy into quality stocks as in every rally we have seen many sectors/stocks move up 15% irrespective of the index.


For example around 4700-4800 Nifty and Sensex 15800 on 29 August we came out with a detailed powerpoint – Short Term Bottom in Sight – Bounce Back on Cards we covered the possibility of a rise to 5100-5200 and 16800-17300 with certain stocks mentioned.

Many of the stocks like GSFC, HUL, Bajaj auto , M&M . Atul ended up close to 52 wk highs and others also gave sharp bounce backs and are still holding strong even in current dip.


So it will be stock selection which will make a difference rather then looking at the index !!! HUL one of my favorites is up from 310 to 350 whereas index is at the same place.



ALSO for all the readers its a good opportunity to get free gifts from Analyse India !!!!!


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Happy Investing ,



Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2531 articles.

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{ 10 comments… add one }
  • rahul toshniwal September 15, 2011, 00:06

    Sir would you like to share your views regarding ongc fpo.

    • nooresh September 15, 2011, 10:21

      Hi Rahul,

      As i said 2-3 yrs ONGC is good but FPO/IPO and short term no view

  • rahul toshniwal September 15, 2011, 00:08

    Sir would you please share your views regarding ongc fpo.

  • SWAROOP KALE September 15, 2011, 16:47


  • Rahul Toshniwal September 15, 2011, 20:34

    I have some doubts regarding application of technical analysis at breakouts.
    For example :
    1} When does a stock take support/resistance and when does it break it.
    [E.g : Bajaj Auto was resisted at 1500 but last time it broke it.]
    2} How is a support/resistance or triangle breakout confirmed.
    [E.g : Hdil was in symmetrical triangle from 07/04/11 to 26/07/11. In between it a gave a false breakout on 08/07/11.]

    Sir last question taking basics of technicals into account Nifty Future had given a triangle breakout last month in monthly charts at 5252. Height of triangle is around 1400 points. So should the index ultimately land up around 3900.

    Eagerly looking forward to your reply.

    • nooresh September 16, 2011, 10:06

      Hi Rahul,

      Technical Analysis is not a strict science but an art so one cannot just take direct projections and expect them to come quickly. Also counter trend breakouts will never achieve targets.

      1) Regarding supports/resistance its a market behaviour and we also need to look into volumes.
      2) For Bajaj Auto if u look at it the volumes picking up was an indication.
      3) HDIL is in a downtrend so one needs to be very cautious.
      4) For Nifty you have just looked into one observation — Look at my earlier posts where we have looked into a channel support Also look into this post it has more detailed views on Nifty/Sensex

  • Mayank Gupta September 16, 2011, 00:35

    Hi Nooresh,

    Can we expect the Sensex to be at 33000-35000 odd levels by 2015 end as a investor or you feel the long term supports have broken???

    • nooresh September 16, 2011, 10:01

      Hi Mayank,

      My long term view remains super bullish and the near term is a tough time where index may bottom out at 14500 in worst case of 15400-15800 n ideal case. None of
      it changes the long term view.

      My targets are placed at 27-32k in next 2-3 years.

  • Rahul Toshniwal September 16, 2011, 10:42

    Thank You Sir.
    But sir if possible can you explain volume and price relation in a little more detail.

    • nooresh September 16, 2011, 13:36

      Hi Rahul,

      Very difficult to explain that 😛 but you can go through all the previous posts and u will get better idea.

      Also if you are based in india and have an interest to learn can join our training programs


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