Technical view by Nooresh

Why is it easier to predict a Crash !! — Is it a time to get Ready for the next Big Rally in the next few years ??

We have recently started seeing a lot of broking firms, financial advisors, analysts and everyone on the street is calling for a major crash and a worse then 2008 scenario.

Many even going to the extent of calling it a systemic crisis, catastrophe, currency failures, sovereign failures and every thing which can lead to panic.

One good saying – One Big Predictions is what makes an analyst :) a Guru -----





For example there are just too many books on the Great Crash Ahead !!


The same writers who supposedly predicted 36000 or 40000 on Dow Jones and kept repeating it.  Now they are back with a new book and  a new view of 3000 Dow Jones.

 The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down


Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market



So right now we are seeing a spate of such books calling for a Big Bear Market. We did see a lot of such books and articles coming in the end of 2008. Why do such books not come at in end of 2007 or end of 2010. ( Simple investors pyschology – Fear and Greed Rules. So right now its time to capitalize the fear )


So lets look at a modus operandi to be a Market Guru.


1) Come out with a very strong recommendation a 500 % rally in Index or a drop of 90 % on the index.

2) Go with the Market – Release the report / book when markets are highly depressed or in euphoria :).

3) If you go right SHOUT and release another a book else be happy with gains of one :) !!!


With the markets going in a Bull and Bear Cycles you may go right at least once :) ---- And there you are a Guru and meanwhile even if you are not a Guru your book will definitely SELL :)


Lets c maybe even we have been trying to do the same :) but we do it at the wrong time --------- :) as we would like investors to profit from the opportunities available.

We have been predicting a long term bull market since 2005 which will last till 2018 and go up to 44k-77k in that period. Also expecting 27-32k till 2013-2015.


We have been presenting the above long term cycle presentations at a time when investors could profit from investing in equities :). But thats the time not many are interested in Investing – Like right now :)


We did our 1st seminar in September 2005 for a broking firm when index first hit 8000 giving a target of 25k-44k-77k in next few years. ( We did touch 21k in 2008 thats 3 times )

Check the powerpoint presentation here ------

Post 8000 Boom or Doom – September 2005


( reproduced as it was presented by Mr N S Fidai my partner and mentor at Analyse India – the presentation uses our Newsletter name – QuickGains we still use the same name for our newsletters )


The next we did was starting in July –August 2009 and till mid of 2010 in various citiies like Mumbai, Pune, Banglore, Chennai, Delhi , Banglore, Ahmedabad and so on.


Sensex the next Multibagger – August 2009 and so on.


Again we feel is the right time to start investing for long term slowly and we will be back with these seminars in your city very soon starting October. Those who would like to get it in their city and volunteer may mail me on


For some more good reads look at what i wrote on Elliot Wave Analysis in April 2009 ---- ( i still am not a believer of it but people like jargon so had to write in that wave to convince people to buy )   - April 14 2009  - April 4 2009



Happy Investing ,


Nooresh Merani

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2531 articles.

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