Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Everyone who was searching for the Bottom missed the Rally !!

All through the last 3 months or in the end of December majority of the people were searching for where is the Bottom.

There were bets as to whether it will do 3800 or 4000 or 4200 or 4400.

 

Yet again i remember that in the end of December and January the bias had shifted heavily for a crack !! --- This made me bullish and the falling wedge pattern on Nifty gave it more conviction.

 

Also had clearly mentioned that we are very much invested almost totally as on January 2nd when we initiated the view of a Short Term Rally

 

Now let us look at the performance of Benchmark Indices.

 

BSE MIDCAP  --------- --------18.6%

BSE SMALL CAP INDEX ---- 21 %

SENSEX -----------------------  14.8%

BSE BANKEX ----------------- 28%

BSE 100 ------------------------17%

BSE 200 ------------------------ 17%

BSE 500 ------------------------- 17.3%

 

So if we look at it had you just bought on start of January you would be gaining 15-20% and on average so many quality stocks have jumped 25-35% in the last 1 month.

 

But what were you searching for a BOTTOM ? Will you be able to deploy 100% cash on one bottom day at whatever level you assumed where index is headed?

 

Precisely for this reason one needs to be disciplined and look for quality stocks in a consistent manner. Also it is very necessary to focus on Technical Analysis to get in at the right time.

 

Now the next question is whether we have bottomed out ? Well i would stick my neck out and speak my view --- Yes we have and 4500 and 15000 is a long term bottom in place. ( we can test 3% + – closer to it ).

 

From now we have changed the strategy from Buy in Panics to Buy Quality in dips and continue to look for breakout trades in short term.  To be clear have turned less risk-averse 🙂

 

These are some of My tweets on https://twitter.com/nooreshtech in end of December clearly giving the mood of buying 🙂 Follow us on twitter for quick snippets

 

 

 

 

The capitulation in midcaps/smallcaps tells me its the time for investors to accelerate buying in quality midcaps. Buy ABnuvo ,Nesco

19 Dec

 

Markets rarely move towards consensus. Never seen such strong bearish consensus. But need to be selective in buying and shorting as well

20 Dec

 

Todays Post Larsen & Toubro — Nearing 2008 Oversold Levels. Watch for sharp panics only to… http://goo.gl/fb/HOmkj

21 Dec

 

http://www.ndtv.com/article/profit/india-s-stock-market-loses-1-trillion-dollar-status-294445 Indian Market cap down 45-48% from peak of 2008 in dollar terms.

21 Dec

 

Todays Post US Indices – Dow and S&P 500 / US Stocks look More Bullish and interestingly… http://goo.gl/fb/OU2ta

Cement Stocks have outperformed all benchmark indices. Have been mentioning that since a long time. But we are yet to see a breakout move.

27 Dec

 

Advising strong buying in aditya birla nuvo, nesco and godrej inds. Should finish 80 percent intended buying for long term

2 Jan

 

Todays Post Reliance Inds —- Finally getting into Buy Zone.http://goo.gl/fb/dBTti

2 Jan

Its fashionable to be Bearish. Surprisingly even the retail brokers /asset mgmt companies are talking bearish.

3 Jan

Retail brokers, asset management cos are supposed to stay bullish always for their business. Who will buy MFs if fund manager is bearish.

3 Jan

 

Todays Post Master Blaster — A New Year Gift for all our Readers.http://goo.gl/fb/Stuep

In start of jan had tweeted that its a perfect setup for a short term rally with such a bearish consensus. Short coverin n midcap rally nw

10 Jan

 

France downgraded. Well now let's start something new on europe...

14 Jan

 

It would be interesting to see shareholding patterns of companies in dec qtr. Lic hiking stakes and insider buying announcements everyday.

17 Jan

 

if it gaps up it would bE thE 4th. Not going short much as majority are still short and now back with 3900-4400 tg.Longs will b cut 4 now.

20 Jan

 

Larsen and toubro came out with good results after moving from 1000 to 1300. Market is supreme estimates are never

23 Jan

My targets on the upside done on Nifty, bank nifty. Time to create some speculative shorts on index and long midcaps is the preferred trade

24 Jan

 

2011 started with majority broking firms estimate at 18000-23000 for 2012. Need to see this years projections saw one of 14500 also

27 Jan

 

For an investor/traders does it matter whether it is a Suckers rally/Bear Rally or a Bull Run ??The money you take out from market matters

28 Jan F

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2581 articles.

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{ 2 comments… add one }
  • Ravi February 7, 2012, 15:31

    Nooresh,

    Can you Please tell Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd at current price?Thx

    Reply
    • nooresh February 13, 2012, 14:20

      BHEL i think has bottomed out. Buy around 240.

      Reply

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