Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

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Analyse India – Forget the Past ..

 

 

Hi Please find attached a detailed presentation on

 

Indices trend ( Sensex, Nifty and Bank Nifty ) in the past 2 years/ 5 years.

Global Indices trends.

The co-relation of Indian and Global Indices.

Nifty and India Vix co-relation.

Volumes on Nifty in recent Rallies and Crashes.

Impact Makers of Nifty 50.

8 and 13 year cycles on Sensex.

 

Click on link below.

 

Analyse India - Forget the Past.ppsx

 

We expect a major structural change in Markets in coming few weeks/months. Strategy is very simple buy on dips and be stock specific.

 

Will soon be conducting a webinar to explain it in details.

 

 

 

Regards,

Nooresh

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2571 articles.

You can follow Nooresh Tech on Facebook and Twitter here.


{ 51 comments… add one }
  • Dinesh Varma August 14, 2012, 15:00

    Sir,

    Really great presentation. Very helpful and amazing work done by you and your team. Thank you so much.

    One point I want to mention here Sir is that FII has pumped in so much of money in to Indian equtiy post 2008 and if they decide to exit then it will be very hard time for us. Short term I agree to your point because retail has not entered in market in this rally from Jan this year, so FII will keep creating faith in Indian equity. But I always think when this heavy FII inflow take U turn from our market irrespective of fundamentals will bleed and right now all fundamentals are pointing for downside in equity but things are moving is very range πŸ™‚

    I like reading your research. Great work Sir and thank you once again.

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 16, 2012, 15:39

      Thanks Dinesh .. fingers crossed πŸ™‚

      Reply
  • Bhanu August 14, 2012, 20:21

    hi nooresh,

    Thanks for bring some hope back into investments otherwise it was getting routine. You have not covered your fev. like Godrej, NESCO, ABN, etc. where do they stand? becoz i have put my money in those stocks, hope they participate too.

    thanks
    Bhanu

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 16, 2012, 15:39

      Hi Bhanu,

      I continue to maintain my stance on nesco, godrej , ab nuvo ( good at current levels)

      Have added a couple of more stocks in this segment will mention soon om blog.

      Reply
  • damodhar batheja August 15, 2012, 00:02

    Dear,
    I would like to express my appreciation for the remarkable services rendered by you as an active and dynamic Technical Analyst. The contributions you made to on your website over the past years have indeed been very valuable and are worthy to be followed by others…With you all the best!
    Warm Regards,
    Damodar Batheja, A’Nagar.

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 16, 2012, 15:38

      Thanks for your kind words damodar.

      Reply
  • nannu August 16, 2012, 19:56

    Very good presentation!! Thanks for sharing with us πŸ™‚

    Reply
  • bhanu August 16, 2012, 21:42

    Hi Nooresh,

    Could you please post your views on Dishman pharama, Clariant chem, and fairefield atlas pls.
    Also just curious , where will RIL stop, will it cross 1000?

    -:) you make investment so simple that i feel like sir. Jhunjhunwala !!

    thanks
    -Bhanu

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 16, 2012, 23:05

      Dishman is one stock which was a bad miss technically and fundamentally.

      Clariant will test patience to the hilt though downside is limited.

      Fairfield Atlas is a play purely on delisting.

      Reliance Inds technical targets at 900-950.

      Reply
  • Ramesh August 19, 2012, 07:26

    I have posted an article on Nifty Future trade setup and i would like greatly appreciate your review comments.
    http://tradingniftyoptions.blogspot.in/2012/08/decision-point-nifty-future-trading.html

    Reply
  • Hemal sheth August 19, 2012, 16:24

    Dear sir, can you please give us recent n.a.v of some holding companies ? What level to buy ? Aditya birla nuvo, godrej ind, bajaj holding, bengal & assam, jsw holding, nalwa sons, bombay burmah,etc please suggest level to buy and what targets to expect in long term say 5-10yrs. Thanks, hemal sheth

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 19, 2012, 17:37

      I like Ab Nuvo, Beng Assam , Bombay Burmah on current prices and dips of 10%

      Reply
  • adil khan August 19, 2012, 19:40

    NOORESH SIR U ROCK !!!

    Reply
  • shree August 19, 2012, 20:11

    Great analysis nooresh. You always have a unique way of looking at things compared to most of the analyst who report ” india has won independence” under breaking news section!!

    Reply
  • Sekhar Krishnan August 20, 2012, 11:40

    Your article on Nifty weightage makes interesting reading.

    I feel its time we had a Nifty index 50/100 based on equal weightage of stocks. We can thus overcome the problem of a few stocks moving the Nifty that may not be truly representative of the overall market. By having an equal wighted index you need to have a move in more than 50 % of a stock for an up move and above 80 to 85 % of the stocks for a meaningful upmove to be seen in markets across the board.
    An equal weighted index will be truly representaive of the markets and may further filter out false breakouts seen in the current Nifty.
    Sekhar K

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 20, 2012, 21:46

      Hi Sekhar,

      What you want is not possible πŸ™‚ . Anyways but we got to adapt to the current structure of Nifty

      Reply
      • Sekhar Krishnan August 21, 2012, 12:40

        I dont agree to your comments “What you want is not possible”.
        I feel it is possible but not available at this point of time. You had written a PROBLEM in the composition of Nifty which is heavily skewed to a few scrips and hence not representative of the stock market movement. In fact it is an eye opener and should be sent by you to the NSE (index composition dept) (with your permission I can forward it giving you credit).
        I was only providing a SOLUTION. If users and market leaders like your good self write to NSE on this email id ‘iisl@nse.co.in’ it would be a matter of time before we have an equal weighted index . This will also be useful to technical analyst to have a better reading of market moves and help avoid false breakouts.
        I have done my part by writing to NSE twice and will continue to do so in future.
        Warm Regards
        Sekhar Krishnan

        Reply
        • Nooresh August 21, 2012, 12:51

          Hi Sekhar,

          It requires a total overhaul of the system world wide which i believe is not possible. For instance Russia or even brazil have almost 50% weightage to just 1 sector.
          So max we can get is another index made but the benchmarks like Nifty and Sensex will remain the traded quantities.

          Reply
          • Sekhar Krishnan August 21, 2012, 13:15

            Ok
            Sekhar Krishnan

  • bijay August 20, 2012, 16:40

    Nice presentation, boosts and recharged the spirit of investment with slightly longer term view. Any fresh input on NESCO ?

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 20, 2012, 21:45

      NESCO – Well the current input is it will take time to lease out the IT Park 3 and one will need to wait for a little longer time. The stock has a base at 580-600.
      It will catch market attention any time. Only for a long term investor.

      Reply
      • bijay August 22, 2012, 15:52

        thanx

        Reply
  • bhanu August 21, 2012, 08:22

    hi Nooresh,

    do you adivce to book out of HUL and move into godrej? what are the targets for HUL and Godrej , for year end time frame.

    thanks
    Bhanu

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 21, 2012, 12:51

      Hi Bhanu,

      Would suggest to hold on to HUL and review at 550 but part of it can be shifted to Aditya Birla Nuvo or Forbes and COmpany

      Reply
  • Jitesh August 22, 2012, 10:59

    Dear Nooresh, some technical analysts have mentioned that this move in the market is Wave C which is going to last very long and take the Nifty all the way upto 14000 !!!! Do u think this target is possible and by when ? What can we expect returns from individual smll cap stocks then ??

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 22, 2012, 14:23

      Hi Jitesh,

      Our long term targets remain pretty huge but thats a call for 2016-2018.

      For now take one step at a time.

      Reply
  • manoj mahadev August 23, 2012, 10:44

    Sir,

    Your view on DISA from current 2600 levels

    regards

    Reply
  • Gandhe srinivas August 23, 2012, 21:17

    Dear Sir

    Any particular reason for fall in Skumar Please advise Holding big chunk……..

    Thanks in advance

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 24, 2012, 10:19

      Seems like pledge selling or major unwinding. Fundamentally looks good but price action has killed all hopes.

      Reply
  • Bhanu August 23, 2012, 21:40

    Hi Nooresh,

    What is your current position on Ranbaxy? it was initated in may/Aug . It seems it has achieved its target. do you see further up from there?

    thanks
    Bhanu

    Reply
    • Nooresh August 24, 2012, 10:19

      Hi Bhanu,

      We initiated a fresh trading call at 515 and have booked part at 550 and revised long term targets to 600-630

      Range had been 470-525 which has been broken so looks a good buy on dips. Can book part

      Reply
  • vivek August 27, 2012, 01:09

    Hi Nooresh,
    I have bought 1000 shares of Sangam India @ 60. Can you tell me technically & fundamentally Whether it can go to Rs.100 . I can wait for 1 year.

    Reply
  • shiv August 27, 2012, 14:22

    Your fav 3 stocks at the current market level.?

    Reply
  • Pranav August 30, 2012, 19:57

    Hello Nooresh,

    Your blog is really helpful. Could you please share your views on the following stocks?

    1. JP Associates – short term & long term
    2. HCL Technologies – Off late, everyone is giving a Buy call with HCL due to its strong q-o-q performance. Is it worth buying at the current levels?
    3. Tata Motors – what should be the entry point considering a 1 yr horizon.

    Thanks, Pranav.

    Reply
    • Nooresh September 3, 2012, 11:31

      Jp associates is a high risk high return play, Every time it dips to 60-55 it bounces back.

      HCL tech is a buy for long term on dips to 530

      Tata Motors 200-225 an entry point.

      Reply
  • Gandhe srinivas August 31, 2012, 21:22

    Hi sir

    Whats your View on reliance……….

    Reply
    • Nooresh September 3, 2012, 11:30

      Reliance seems a buy at 740-760 stoploss of 730.

      Reply
  • bijay September 3, 2012, 13:45

    Dear Nooresh, I like Tata Motor DVR, plz help me the broader range to trade as i am a pure investor cum trader.

    Reply
    • Nooresh September 10, 2012, 01:27

      Hi Bijay,

      I remain very bullish on Tata Motors and if you are a long term investor its better to buy the DVR. Will suggest to hold. 230-210 a good buy area for tata motors.

      Reply
      • bijay September 10, 2012, 10:48

        Thanx…Nooresh

        Reply
  • vivek September 3, 2012, 16:00

    Hi Nooresh,
    I have bought 1000 shares of Sangam India @ 60. Can you tell me technically & fundamentally Whether it can go to Rs.100 . I can wait for 1 year.

    Reply
    • Nooresh September 10, 2012, 01:26

      Seems strong technically. if you have patience for a year can hold.

      Reply
  • Balvinder September 15, 2012, 02:20

    Thank you Nooresh ji!!!
    Excellent presentation…Great effort.
    Very kind of you to share…:-)

    Reply
  • prashant September 27, 2012, 13:25

    hi am holding laopala glass ,wimplast, nahar capital whats ur opinion on these

    Reply
    • Nooresh September 28, 2012, 00:24

      like la opala and wimplast as consumer stories. No idea on nahar capital.

      Reply
  • Dinesh Mishra October 4, 2012, 16:38

    Hi Sir,

    I have NO WORDS other than SIMPLY SUPERB………..

    Reply
    • Nooresh October 6, 2012, 01:26

      Thanks Dinesh for your kind words

      Reply
  • Avinash December 5, 2012, 07:01

    once I wrote you about USL when it was languishing at 900 or so.Now what do you see. With Diageo in command and the great consumption story can it be a 5 bagger from here on by 2020.Also what will be target for Godrej Ind &Godrej Prop both your favourites by 2020 Thanks

    Reply
    • Nooresh December 5, 2012, 12:39

      Hi Avinash,

      Yes never understood the stock USL coz of the management and erratic moves.

      Godrej Inds and Godrej Properties difficult to put a target but keeping it for 5 years is fine.

      Reply

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