Technical view by Nooresh

Can Mphasis do a Tech Mahindra in coming months ??

We at Analyse India came out with a report called “ Happy New Financial Year – Five stock picks for FY13 ” on 1st April 2012 in which the 3rd stock out of the five stocks we mentioned was Tech Mahindra and the following is an excerpt from that report: 



3. Tech Mahindra

As you see in this chart the stock has broken out of 5 year old Red Trendline on weekly closing basis and that too with huge vols ( highest in last 12 months) giving first signs of trend change. Stock has also been in a green parallel channel of 300 points range since last 2 years. The confirmation of trend change comes above 770-800 range if stock breaks out of this parallel channel then it can head to 1100-1150 in
medium term
Investors can Buy Techm EITHER on dips to 650-670 range with stoploss
of 580 on closing basis OR wait for confirmation above 770-800 range for
targets 1100-1150 in medium term





The stock was recommended at 650-670 levels,  yesterday it made a high around 1040 levels and is heading towards 1100-1150 targets given in the report. Investors can look to book part profit at current levels of 1030-1050 and keep trailing their stoploss for final targets 1100-1150.





Mphasis is trading in a huge symmetrical triangle after the fall in Feb 2011. The stock is in a consolidation phase for last 15 months. It can give a big move if it sustains & closes above 415-420 range. Mphasis after the breakout can head to 480-500 levels in medium term whereas long term targets around 600 are also possible in this move.


Buy Mphasis only if sustains/closes above 415-420 range with stoploss of 380 on
closing basis and targets 480-500 in medium term.



Mphasis - Report



Now we feel Mphasis is giving same signs of breakout that Tech Mahindra did and this is the comparison of both the stocks:



Comparison – Tech Mahindra vs Mphasis 






    Tech Mahindra   Mphasis
1. Topped Out At 1150 level in Jan 2010 At 700 level in Jan 2011
2. The Big Fall Corrected 46% from the highs Corrected 47% from the highs
3. Consolidation Period 22 months 15 months
4. Breakout Confirmation Above 780-800 range Above 415-420 range
5. Targets Achieved at 1030-1050 levels Expected at 550-600 levels
6. Sector Information Technology Information Technology






Ankit Chaudhary

Technical Analyst & Derivatives’ Strategist

Analyse India



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Article by Ankit Chaudhary

Ankit has written 5 articles.

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{ 12 comments… add one }
  • bhanu October 3, 2012, 11:46

    Dear Nooresh,

    As usual your targets are spot on. Hinduja did move today 10%, i am holding BGR, Benga Asam, Andrew yule (your old fev since last 2 years) Nesco. please advice entry/exit targets for these stocks.

    I know you have many fans, i am one among them, Will stay for long.

    appreaciate a bunch.

    • Nooresh October 3, 2012, 14:14

      Hinduja keep for some time as it has broken out on long term charts finally. 500-550 to book partially, Bengal and Assam keep holding patiently, Andrew Yule can wait for a couple of months if does not participate shift. NESCO is a must hold for next 2 years. :) ( Core portfolio pick )

  • Saif October 4, 2012, 02:22

    Hi Nooresh
    wats ur view on mcnally bharat for long term?

    • Nooresh October 6, 2012, 01:26

      Looks good for long term . Basing out buy on dips to 100

  • saif October 4, 2012, 09:33

    hi Nooresh
    wats ur view on mcnally bharat for long term?

  • TEJAS October 5, 2012, 21:42


    • Nooresh October 6, 2012, 01:25

      Keep a stoploss below 380 for medium term view. Short term stoploss of 395 on closing basis.

      Stock got impacted by bad results declared by HP

  • Umesh Kamath October 6, 2012, 11:59

    Hi Nooresh,
    Whats your view on Jayshreetea i have 500 shares booked for 92 what do i do?

  • meghraj mane October 15, 2012, 15:22


  • Raghavendra H Nayak October 16, 2012, 07:43

    hi Nooresh,

    yesterday mphasis closed at 394.5, still can we hold the stock the stock….

    • Nooresh October 16, 2012, 10:05

      Hold with a closing stoploss of 380-385.

      Disclosure. adding to position bought at 410-415 at 395.


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