Technical view by Nooresh


Nifty – Trend remains Positive. Stop Searching for a Top !!

Over the last few sessions all of us market-men have been trying to search a TOP in Nifty. Also the last few months index has been in a nice rally on expected lines which quite a lot of people missed. Readers who would have followed our detailed presentation in August would have capitalized this move from 5100-5200 to 6000 and still riding on it.

Analyse India – Forget the Past


There is no belief in the current move with many people believing that the fundamentals still not being in place, government, CAD, Inflation, RBI  etc and lots of jargons used on TV. But nobody realizes that every global index is on a 3 year high so we are doing nothing different. Market moves ahead than fundamentals and for us at Analyse India we would be looking at getting cautious when fundamentals improve πŸ˜›


Let us look at the current Technical picture.


Nifty Channel


Nifty Technical View:


Like Newtons law of motion. A trend remains in motion till there is evidence of otherwise. This is the belief which a Technical Analyst believes in but at times difficult to follow.


All market-men have this habit of trying to call a Top or Bottom. Had written an extensive article in October 2011 mentioning to stop searching for a bottom and invest and followed it with another article mentioning how one will be left guessing a bottom as Fear had a hit a 10 year high around the world.


Right now there is no point finding a top till we see definite signals. We may keep seeing a lot of Technical Reports mentioning about it. A simpler strategy is to keep booking partial profits and use strict stoplosses and enjoy the ride which still has a lot to go.


Technically Nifty is in a higher top higher bottom in a nice ascending channel. The next logical resistance for the channel comes at 6250-6330.


Now some technical analyst would be calling the current volatile pattern in Nifty to be a rising wedge. Its too early to call it because we generally see big swings and 3-4 attempts on higher end of the wedge and a nice breakout too.

So for now it does not look distribution but possibly a lot of shakeouts to remove weaker hands.




The simpler strategy is to now wait for recent bottoms to be broken for any turnaround signal. No point finding a top but its better to raise your stops. The recent bottoms are 5940/5850.




MUMBAI – February 2-3


For more details call Ankit 09899899989 Nooresh 09819225396  or mail





Nooresh Merani


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Article by Nooresh Merani

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{ 23 comments… add one }
  • Gandhe srinivas January 19, 2013, 21:13

    Dear Sir

    Please share your view on Reliance capital holding the future @ 503

    • Nooresh January 21, 2013, 21:22

      Suggest to hold on for 550 in medium term.

  • Saif January 20, 2013, 09:30

    Nooresh wat is ur view on hcl infosystems for medium to long term? It is a very good dividend paying co.

    • Nooresh January 21, 2013, 21:22

      Well the growth has been a concern for the stock. Stock was good div paying at 60 also and is now 40

  • pintu January 20, 2013, 11:48

    dear nooreshji,

    i agree with u that nifty is closing with positive momentum, but i think so its a last stop of bullish journey, as per my view one can sell here with stoploss @ 6105 with a target of 5985 – 5870- 5740.

    • Nooresh January 21, 2013, 21:21

      Exactly my point !! Stop searching for a top. Maybe your stops may take u out in this process a couple of times.

  • rashmi January 21, 2013, 20:33

    dear sir,i wud be grateful to u if u wud give r views on balrampur chini fr investment purpose.regds rashmi

    • Nooresh January 21, 2013, 21:20

      Hi Rashmi,

      One will need to have a lot of patience with this stock.

      • rashmi January 22, 2013, 12:09

        thnks sir

  • bhanu January 22, 2013, 09:24

    Dear Nooresh,
    Your view on Cent Text. and Bengal Assam, for next few months. both seems to be stuck. Appreciate if you can provide me some long term target as you gave for ABN and Godrej etc.


    • Nooresh January 23, 2013, 11:39

      Century Textiles has somehow not been able to move neyond 440 levels. Stoploss of 380 for long term and upside of 600.
      Bengal and Assam one may review at 400.
      ABNuvo 1500 + and Godrej 450 in long term.

  • Santosh January 22, 2013, 10:51

    Nooresh sir,
    your view on Reliance Power and Tata Power for trading & investment.


    • Nooresh January 23, 2013, 11:38

      Reliance Power seems good for a trading punt. Tata Power above 115 will review

  • rashmi January 22, 2013, 12:10

    sir,ur views on hin uni lever with a view to investment will be welcome.
    regds rashmi

    • Nooresh January 23, 2013, 11:37

      Hindustan Unilever we had a very strong recommendation at 300-330 for a target of 450 which went much beyond.
      For now i would prefer to avoid the stock unless a pullback trade from 430-450 zone.

  • sathiya January 23, 2013, 10:03

    Dear Sir,
    What is your view on Unitech, on long term?

    • Nooresh January 23, 2013, 11:37

      Hi Sathiya.
      Very difficult to take a long term view on Unitech for me. Will prefer other stocks

  • Saif January 23, 2013, 12:17

    Nooresh wats wrong with clariant chemicals? Hit a new 52 week low today. Still a hold for long term?

    • Nooresh January 23, 2013, 19:02

      The recent deal is very negative

  • prodyut das January 28, 2013, 00:30

    dear sir
    what is the lower buying range level and how much time i wait for dlf, rpower, jpasso, bhel for 1 to 2 year

    • Nooresh January 28, 2013, 14:28

      BHEL and JP look good

  • sanjay January 29, 2013, 15:16

    Hi Nooresh,

    Would like to know your views on 3 stocks:
    1. Sakthi sugar (since it is a cyclic stock) for 2 years as it is near bottom.
    2. FSL (taken over by CESC promoters and this year EPS looks to be reaching around Rs2 so at current rate P/E multiple is at 6)
    3. IOB (2 yrs; should i accumulate)

    All the above stocks i have small holding.

    Thanks in advance and keep up the good work with your detailed and informative blogs. I generally stay in touch with markets by reading your blog.


    • Nooresh February 3, 2013, 22:48

      1) No views on the sugar sector. Only pick i like is triveni

      2) FSL – Not tracking at all.

      3) IOB – Its good for investment.


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