Technical view by Nooresh

L&T Finance Derivatives inclusion and OFS, Sensex churn at 50% , Spicejet Holi Dance & Goldman Sachs Nifty Target 7600

There have been some interesting articles which i read in the last few days.


We had covered how L&T Finance inclusion into OFS was a bit fishy few days back -

L&T Finance Holdings – Inclusion into Futures and OFS – Something fishy ?


Here are articles by moneycontrol and economic times questioning the move.


Over the last few years we have been mentioning the importance of weightages of Nifty/Sensex. How RCOM at 4.2% was 7th highest in 2008 is no more in the index and ITC is up from 2.2% to almost 9-10%. All indices are survivorship biased and bad stocks continue to go out because of free float market cap considerations.

Couple of my older articles ( there are many ) where we used Nifty calculator to understand possible downsides/upsides.

In December 2011-

What is Nifty and What is your Target for Nifty ?

In August 2012

Nifty 50 Index – Weightages and Free Float Market-Cap


In this article CEO of Ambit Capital comes out with an excellent analysis on how the Sensex churn is 50% and over a 10 year period only 15 companies survive out of the 30 in the index.


Recently Spicejet had conducted eight flights on which there was a dance to celebrate Holi.

One of the youtube videos i saw online 

The DGCA did not like this and has sent a show cause notice


Recently goldman sachs upgraded India to marketweight and increased target of Nifty to 7600. On the same day Goldman Sachs also launched the PSU ETF .


Couple of articles by Deepak Shenoy of Capital Mind on 7600 target and PSU ETF -

Goldman Sachs’ Nifty 7600 “Target” is Just a Load of Bull


The Low-Down on the PSU- ETF Where The Govt “Quasi” Divests Its Holdings


My view – There are 10 foreign brokers and 10 different targets and generally none of them come on the target date :)


This is my article on some foreign brokers who went bearish in December 2011 and markets bottomed out in the next days and never seen that price again ( did fall 300 points in those 10 days )


CLSA Drops A Bomb; Forecasts Sensex at 14000, Credit Suisse sees Sensex at 13,200; Re at 55 by June –— When will they get it right !! 


Another article in December 2012. 


They had recently gone very bearish in August 2013 too and we are now at new highs.

Foreign brokers turn bearish on markets, downgrade Indian stocks


Generally foreign brokers or any broker is pretty bullish its only when they get bearish in a herd its a good signal for investment.


Do read and post your comments.


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Thanks and Regards,

Nooresh Merani

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Article by Nooresh Merani

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