Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

August 2013 & May 2015 comparisons. Midcap and Smallcap Indices – Go stock specific.

Nifty has been doing volatile moves and will continue to do so while making a bottom. Giving good trading opportunities.

 

These are some charts I had made on the August 2013 and May 2015 similarities. It is possible to see a whipsaw similar to previous Head and Shoulder breakdowns. But i do not expect a V shape rally.

 

These are quick charts just for observation !! No two moves are exactly similar.

 

Head and Shoulders Whipsaws

 

August 2013 – Nifty at 5100 –

HNS big whips

 

May 2005 – Nifty at 2000 before getting into a big bull market.

 

2005

 

December 2011 – 4500 Nifty -  ( I had written a lot of posts back then on the bullish reasoning )

hns 2011

 

Now look at the range of Nifty back in August 2013 and now in May 2015.

 

 

August 2013 – Nifty at 5100

August 2013

 

A much deeper correction and much bigger swings also it had broken multiple important lows.

 

 May 2015

 

Currently our moves are half of it. We are basically not used to volatility given the nice run in last 1 yr.

 

Sentimentally we are nowhere close to August 2013. Remember USD INR at 68, Liquidity tightening, US, Europe etc 🙂

So do not expect moves to be similar and also bounces and falls to be smaller in size.

 

Nifty View

 

Continue to stick with the view of buying in steps and bottoming out is a process and can take its own time.

We got a good bounce from buy zones of 8080 and could book part at 8300. Re-entered the same at 8150. Will now add on another low with positive divergence or wait for a bounce to book again is the trading strategy. So have good buffer to the strategy and risk management is in place. No over leverage and keeping open to add.

Check this recent post sent to Technical Traders Club right on the day Nifty made a low of 8000.

 

http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2015/05/nifty-technical-view-bottoming-out-is-a-process.html 

 

The major focus now is to look for stock specific opportunities.

 

One more reason to be stock specific is the good strength in Midcap and Smallcap Indices which tells you a lot of selling is index based.

 

Midcap Index

 

Smallcap Index

 

There should be a lot of trading and investment opportunities in smallcaps/midcaps going ahead.

 

Disclosure – It is safe to assume that i would have vested interests in all stocks discussed. Please do your own research and risk management. Take above post as educational or timepass.

 

 

There are few interesting stuff in store for readers this month !!

 

1) Free Webinar – May 16th 2015

 

http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2015/04/free-webinar-trading-technically-and-long-term-technical-view.html 

 

2) The Investing Lab – Delhi May 30-31st ( A must attend program for investors)

 

http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2015/04/the-investing-lab-bridging-theory-and-practicetraining-program-delhi-30-31st-may-2015.html 

 

Planning for a session in Chennai as a few queries. If interested mail nooreshtech@analyseindia.com and may need volunteers to help.

 

 

DISCLOSURE

Nooresh Merani

Securities covered above: Alstom India, DCB Bank, KRBL, Welspun, Nesco, Avanti Feeds

SEBI Registration disclosure – Registration for RIA under Process

Financial Interest:

Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts do have exposure in the securities mentioned in the above report/article.

Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts do not have any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst.

Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts have not received any compensation from the company/third party covered in the above report/article ever.

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The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly and believed to be true. Investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision

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Article by Nooresh Merani

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{ 2 comments… add one }
  • rashmi May 13, 2015, 20:07

    plz post a few selected midcaps for the short term,regds

    Reply
  • rajesh May 15, 2015, 01:24

    Good of your view thanks

    Reply

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