Technically we start liking a sector whenever the almost all the stocks in the sector start making 52 week highs and All Time Highs with volumes.
It gets much more convincing when such a move happens when the Benchmark Indices – Nifty and Sensex are in a consolidaton or in a downtrend.
A relative outperformance of such magnitude is a strong signal. Also such moves get much more stronger when fundamental drivers for the sector are also in place which I think is happening for the sector in terms of good monsoons, subsidy , debt reduction etc.
The same process helped us find Chemicals as a sector with picks like Atul/Aarti Inds and others as well as Textiles Sector – Kpr Mills, Vardhman Textiles, Welspun India , Himatsingka Seide and others. Both the sectors are still in strong long term uptrends.
Technically a strong formation of multi-year highs and huge jump in volumes is seen in the fertilizer stocks. The breakout suggests it could be a lasting trend and the first move from our initiation has been strong. Also we have been long on the sector before the breakout as well and added on to the position. Do note not all our sector calls go right The last one we came out was on Pharma Sector which got stopped out in 2 weeks. Learnt a lesson its tougher to catch bottoming out and one should wait for confirmation instead of pre-empting a trend change from a downtrend. Report here –
So please do your own research and risk management. Do read the Disclosure and Disclaimer .
This is our recent report on Fertilizer Sector focusing only on the better names fundamentally –
Deepak Fertilizers , GSFC , Coromandel , Chambal Fertilizers.
Disclosure – Deepak Fertilizers has been recommended at various prices from 190-220 in , Coromandel from 240-305, GSFC at 75-80 and 103 , Chambal at 72-73 Big Value 3.0 and Technical Traders Club . We are close to our partial booking targets in most of them.
Good follow up volumes and price action in all the stocks.
P.S – Author and his family/associates/analysts do have exposure in the stock. So it’s a biased view !!! Do your own research.
Technical Traders Club – Fertilizer Sector Report released on Jan 4th at 10.30 am.
Another interesting sector is rice.
Apart from this we can see similar breakouts in smaller fertilizer plays as well.
There is an age old assumption that Fertilizers tend to move in a pre-budget rally but last 5-7 years data of price moves does not co-relate to that assumption.
National Fertilizers – NFL
RCF – Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers.
Securities covered above:: Deepak Fertilizers, GSFC , Coromandel, Chambal , NFL, RCF , Fact
SEBI Registration disclosure – Investment Adviser ( INA000002991)
Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts do have exposure in the securities mentioned in the above report/article.
Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts do not have any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst.
Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts have not received any compensation from the company/third party covered in the above report/article ever.
Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered in the report/article and has not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the report/article.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly and believed to be true. Investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision