Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Nifty 50, Nifty 100, Nifty 200, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 100, Nifty Small 100 and BSE Smallcap–Deja Vu 2013 ?

A quick look at the various benchmark indices.

A very interesting setup.

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 highs

  • Has made 3 new highs since the top in January 2018.
  • From 11500 to 12100.
  • Now testing the resistance at previous top of 12000-12100

Nifty 100

Nifty 100

  • Has made 2 new highs since the top in January 2018.
  • From 11550 to 12200. Similar to Nifty
  • Yet to test the highs.

Nifty 200

Nifty 200

  • Has made 1 new high since the top in January 2018.
  • From 6078 to 6268. the 3rd top is equal to the 2nd highs.
  • Yet to test the highs.

Nifty 500

Nifty 500

  • Has made 1 new high since the top in January 2018.
  • From 9900 to 10050. The 3rd highs are much lower than the 2nd highs.
  • Yet to test the highs.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty

  • Has made 3 new highs since the top in January 2018 and each one is much higher.
  • From 27650 to 31750. Has outperformed the Nifty 50.
  • Bank Nifty has been one of the reasons for Nifty 50 outperformance with Nifty 100, 200, 500.
  • Its yet to test the highs.

Nifty Mid 100

Nifty Midcap 100

  • Nifty Midcap 100 has actually made 3 lower highs since the top in January 2018.
  • Every time the Nifty bounces the Midcaps have bounced but not able to catch much momentum.
  • Did cross short term highs in April 2019 but could not continue the momentum.
  • Again making an attempt to make higher highs.
  • Testing the downward trendline resistance.
  • Sustaining above the trendline 17000-17500 will be an indication of midcaps catching momentum and broad based performance.

Nifty Small 100

Nifty Small 100

  • Nifty Small 100 has been on a consistent downtrend with lower highs and lower bottoms.
  • 4 lower highs.
  • Yet to cross the shorter term highs.
  • Did a breakdown in 2019 but did not sustain.
  • A move above the highs 5800-6000 will indicate smallcaps catching favor.
  • That would imply a lot of stock specific action.
  • Time to watch closely if Smallcaps show outperformance to Nifty50.

BSE Smallcap

BSE Smallcap

  • Almost the same as Nifty small 100 even though one has 100 stocks and other 715 stocks and very different weights.

Conclusions

  • Over the last 18-22 months the markets have become narrower by every passing quarter in terms of performance.
  • Starting with Smallcaps, Midcaps and now even the Nifty 500,Nifty 200 and Nifty 100 underperforming after every bounce.
  • Even in the Nifty it has become the top 20 names which have done better.
  • The broader indices are now back to attempting the resistances.
  • Sustaining the short term highs in coming weeks will be an indication of the narrowing trend changing.
  • Time to watch the price action in coming weeks.
  • Whenever such trends change the moves have been faster than expected as when most have given up the rally can start. ( We expected the broader markets to have bottomed in end of 2018 and the bounce was sharp but the 2019 crack took it to new lows.Been wrong for a year now Sad smile )
  • There are a few buckets – Top 20 large names , The top 250 names as per Sebi, The top 250-400 names. The rest of the universe has performed much more worse. This creates a lot of interesting bets in microcaps and smallcaps.
  • The microcaps were laggards for all of 2011-2013 but in 2014 it was back to 2010 highs 

BSe Smallcap 2013

  • 4-5 new lower highs
  • The recovery in 2012 almost looked like things had turned.
  • Newer lows in 2013.
  • Strong recovery from end of 2013.

Its not necessary that 2020-2021 could be similar but its time to watch for price action and triggers from the government , RBI etc.

In 2013 – Fed Taper in May 2013 , Fed Taper to depend on Data , 28th August 2013 India markets bottom USD INR top, FCNR bonds on 4th September, 13th September Modi nomination, Fed Taper delayed – 18th September 2013, Fed taper december 2013.

Apart from price action would be time to watch for a lot of triggers – Privatization, Tax Rate Cuts, Land Reforms, Labour Reforms, Personal Income Tax, LTCG, Budget etc.

Time to be optimistic and be ready to increase conviction on price action and triggers.

Technical Analysis Training Mumbai November 30th – 1st December

Date:
November 30th & 1st December
Timings:
9.30 am to 6 pm

Venue :

Hotel Karl Residency

36, Lallubhai Park Road
Andheri (W), Mumbai, 400058
Maharashtra – (India)

Fees

Rs 16520 ( 14000 + 9% CGST and 9% SGST ) ( No Discounts )

Registration and Payment Link

https://www.instamojo.com/analyseindia/technical-analysis-training-mumbai-november--cc303/

More details on Content - http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/technical-analysis-training/classroom-training

THE COMPLETE INVESTING CONCLAVE 2019

I will be presenting at 'The Complete Investing Conclave' (TCIC - 2019) scheduled on 23-NOV-2019 (Saturday) at TAJ M G Road, Bangalore from 10am onwards.

I will be sharing stage with some of the best industry veterans and all of us will be joining hands to support Social causes undertaken by Shrimad Rajchandra Aatma Tatva Research Centre (SRATRC, Rajnagar, Khopoli, Maharashtra).

We look forward to your support too!!

EARLY REGISTRATION discounts of upto 40% is available (2 Days Left) - so please register soon at https://www.tcicindia.com

Let's Join Hands to Learn Together and Support the Society!

TCIC

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2755 articles.

You can follow Nooresh Tech on Facebook and Twitter here.


{ 0 comments… add one }

Leave a Comment