There have been a lot of targets for Nifty across the board. Some will talk about 5000-7500 and some bullish will be at 1000-12000.
In our last post we looked at how Broader Markets are very close to the pain as it had seen in 2008.
What is Nifty Calculator ?
-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.
-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly
-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–
Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )
Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)
Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )
Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.
How to Guess?
- Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
- Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 80% weight.
- Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
- Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
- Do send me the Excel Sheet if you get beyond 5000 or 12000 !! ( Mail me on firstname.lastname@example.org or 9819225396 )
- Top 20 Stocks are 80.34% of the Index. Highest Ever.
- Top 10 Stocks are 62.5% of the Index. Highest Ever.
- After a long time top 2 stocks command 20% or more weight in the Index.
- Banking and Financials have seen weight drop from a peak of 40.39% to 36.5%.
- HDFC and HDFC Bank have a weight of 18.3%
- Last 20 of Nifty have a weight of only 10%. Equivalent to a HDFC Bank or Reliance.
|OIL & GAS||12.45||15.3||14.74||14.42||13.97||14.37||14.74||15.31||15.3|
|CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS||2.22||1.5||1.57||1.56||1.69||1.74||1.76||1.77||1.61|
|FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES||0.5||0.67||0.7||0.69||0.72||0.72||0.76||0.75||0.75|
|MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT||0.32||0.33||0.35||0.49||0.48||0.42||0.41||0.51||0.53|
Did a Small Chat with ET Markets - India lockdown: This Mumbai investor is doing exactly what he did in 2008