Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Nifty at 11000 or 9000 – Take your Guess . Banks and Financials down to 33% weight from 40.

 

In our last post on the calculator Nifty at 5000 or 7500 on downside or 10000 or 12000 on Upside –Take Your Guess.

Now we are at 10k. Now another time to take a guess where to 9000 or 11000. You can try going beyond this range too.

 Nifty Calculator – Click to Download

What is Nifty Calculator ?

-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.

-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly

-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–

Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )

Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)

Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )

Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.

How to Guess?

  • Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
  • Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 80% weight.
  • Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
  • Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
  • Do send me the Excel Sheet if you get beyond 5000 or 12000 !!  ( Mail me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com or 9819225396 )

Interesting Observations

  • Top 20 Stocks are 78.86% of the Index. Lower than the peak of 80.4% .
  • Top 10 Stocks are 61.58% of the Index. Some reduction from 62.5%
  • After a long time top 2 stocks command 20% or more weight in the Index. 22.22% to be precise.
  • Banking and Financials continues to see weight drop from 40% to 33.4% .
  • HDFC and HDFC Bank have a weight of 17.54%
  • Last 20 of Nifty have a weight of only 11.5%. Equivalent to a Reliance.
  May-20 Apr-20 Mar-20 Oct-19 Sep-19 Aug-19 Jul-19
Sector Weight(%) Weight(%) Weight(%) Weight(%) Weight(%) Weight(%) Weight(%)
FINANCIAL SERVICES 33.34 36.19 36.51 39.48 39.29 39.48 40.25
IT 14.66 14.48 15.04 13.01 13.88 15.36 14.8
CONSUMER GOODS 13.41 13.08 14.46 12.39 12.35 11.04 11
OIL & GAS 14.29 13.92 12.45 15.3 14.74 14.42 13.97
AUTOMOBILE 5.55 5 4.54 6.11 5.52 5.42 5.16
TELECOM 3.59 3.16 3.13 1.78 1.94 1.94 1.87
CONSTRUCTION 2.89 2.7 2.79 3.72 3.86 3.65 3.78
PHARMA 3.35 3.11 2.72 2.15 2.07 2.33 2.31
METALS 2.7 2.62 2.52 2.93 3.03 2.96 3.29
POWER 2.2 2.13 2.26        
CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS 2.41 2.12 2.22 1.5 1.57 1.56 1.69
SERVICES 0.63 0.55 0.54 0.64 0.69 0.64 0.66
FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES 0.56 0.56 0.5 0.67 0.7 0.69 0.72
MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT 0.42 0.35 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.49 0.48

 

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For any queries or payment confirmation mail to nooreshtech@analyseindia.com or whatsapp on 7977801488

Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2741 articles.

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