Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Ambanization of Nifty50 !! Nifty Calculator

Government will find it difficult to raise 2 lakh crores through Privatization but Mukesh Ambani of Reliance has raised that number in the lockdown.

Reliance is now 14% of Nifty50 .

Interesting Observations

  • Top 20 Stocks are 79.26% of the Index. Lower than the peak of 80.4% .
  • Top 10 Stocks are 62.6% of the Index. All time High Concentration.
  • Banking and Financials continues to see weight drop from 40% to 33.16% .
  • Reliance is the largest weight at 14%. Last 23 stocks weight combined now lesser than Reliance.
  • Top 2 stocks 23.56% of the Nifty. Top 3 equal to 31.12% and Top 5 equal to 42.83%.
  • 28 out of the Nifty50 stocks have a weight of less than 1%
  • HDFC and HDFC Bank at 16.15% and 14% Reliance makes it a combined 30% !!

Interesting Sectoral Observations

Sectoral Nifty

  • Financial Services down from 40.39% to 33.16%
  • IT at 16.11% and Reliance at 14% + Bharti Airtel at 2.85%  is now equal to Financial Services.
  • Pharma has gone up from 2.15% to 3.18%

Guess where the Nifty should be 12000 or 10000 ?

Click to Download the Nifty Calculator

What is Nifty Calculator ?

-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.

-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly

-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–

Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )

Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)

Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )

Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.

How to Guess?

  • Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
  • Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 80% weight.
  • Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
  • Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
  • Do send me the Excel Sheet if you get beyond 5000 or 12000 !!  ( Mail me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com or 9819225396 )

 

 

    Article by Nooresh Merani

    Nooresh has written 2774 articles.

    You can follow Nooresh Tech on Facebook and Twitter here.


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