Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

Most Interesting Nifty Chart–Nifty50 USD and BSE Dollex 30.

Following up on our previous post -  Nifty50– 12800-13000 a Pause or a Top ?

We try to cover an Index which nobody looks at but gives very interesting insights.

Another reason to look at this data is that we have seen a 40k cr inflows in November 2020 till date. The big question now is whether the FII flows are just temporary due to MSCI reblance, US Elections, Dollar Index drop, EEM allocations or a structural change in coming years ? ( will try to cover this in future.)

Nifty50 USD

Nifty 50 USD

  • 3 new highs in 2018-2020 on Nifty50 but almost same highs in Nifty50 USD.
  • 2010 highs and 2015 highs were same. ( 2015 was a year of smallcaps outperforming.)
  • The Bottom of 20202 same as 2016 lows.

Dollex 30 which is Sensex in Dollar terms also has a similar formation.

Dollex 30

Conclusion

  • A short term flip flop around the 12800-13000 zone.
  • A consolidation with stock specific action to continue in midcaps/smallcaps.
  • But longer term breakout could happen eventually if one looks at a 1-3 year view.
  • We looked at DII flows closely in 2014-2020 and now we may have to start looking at FII flows.
  • A trend as per the data - We have seen over the years is DIIs tend to be buyers on dips and provide supports. FIIs tend to drive momentum.
  • For the extreme short term would watch for FII daily flows to turn negative as first indication of pause in flows.

 

 

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Article by Nooresh Merani

Nooresh has written 2788 articles.

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