Technical view by Nooresh » 1

Stock Specific Updates

nooresh — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 07:20:16 +0000

Attached below are the Technical Charts for some of the stocks looking good in the near term.

Click on the link below to see Technical Charts with Targets and Stoplosses.

http://www.analyseindia.com/analyseindia/readPost.jsp?postid=153

Interesting Technical Chart— Aarti Inds, Ambuja Cements , GoodYear India

nooresh — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:47:00 +0000

Aarti Inds — It was earlier discussed around 45-48 levels as an interesting stock. The breakout came and did a good 20% spurt. This confirms a turnaround in the stock and now one can buy on retracements.

Earlier discussions — Link 1 , Link 2 ,

This is the Ambuja Cements chart made yesterday when we initiated a buy at 164 to clients.

We have maintained the stance of Cements being the most defensive bet in the Large caps !! and bang on all of them are hitting 52 week highs.

Earlier view on cement stocks — Cements — the next sector to watchout for

We recently bought into Grasim at 2550-2590 ( cmp 2660 ) and holding on. Posted the chart here

Even Ultra Tech Cements, Shree Cements remain a favorite which have performed well.

BF utility —– The stock was posted at 320 levels has done the target of 390. Book profits — Check post here.

Couple of chakri stocks being rigged — DAZZEL CONFINDIVE LTD. and Confidence Petro. Though the stock can just continue to runaway one can only look for entertainment.

One more stock Indian Infotech & enterprises seems going the Avance technology and Market Manipulation Way

If you would like to analyse the way we do it in a simple and honest manner and be consistent do join one of your training programs.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION ———

MUMBAI FEBRUARY 4-5

DELHI 18 –19.

BANGALORE February

If you dont have the inclination to learn and would like to Work on our Exclusive Advise then subscribe to one of our plans which suit you

www.analyseindia.com

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

CEO – Analyse India Market Solutions Private Limited.

Volume Analysis on Nifty- Short Term Divergence and Long term Confirmations.

nooresh — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 18:36:21 +0000

Nifty Futures —

There were huge volumes in the downtrend.

The current rise has not seen any rise in volumes.

There can be two ways to look at it:

The bullish Way

- > There is no speculative buying.

-> Huge shorts were created in the fall and will now lead to scampering of shorts.

The Bearish Way

-> The rise is not supported with volumes. Not enough conviction.

-> The fall can be sharp any time when this move stops.

Nifty Spot

There has been a significant rise in volumes in the current rally.

Today is the highest volumes ( but we had some big change of hands so cannot be considered )

But overall the rise has been supported by Cash volumes.

Interpretations

-> The rise is supported with volumes which give conviction in the rise.

-> Although previous rise did come with volumes but this is after a sharp drop in volumes.

-> This is a classical trend change indicator.

So on the volume analysis it clearly tells us the trend has changed but on RSI and other indicators it also tells us this is stretching a bit too much

The recent top at 5217 and todays high which is at 5244 shows a lower RSI value. So any further highs to

5300-5400 will definitely be RSI divergence.

In such a case the upside could get capped in near term but it is not necessary that we may correct sharply.

Also we are reaching a highly overbought stage but its also a breakout beyond 70 which never happened at previous channel tops !

So near term rise to 5300-5400 is a risky one to buy into .

Bottomline :

-> The clear change in trend spotted at 4600 for 4900/5100 was very well picked by us and benefitted all the readers i suppose.

-> We did get stopped out on the Nifty short but it was a small hit of 50 points but the heavy stock longs compensated it.

-> The most important point is TREND REMAINS positive but its showing divergence signals.

-> STOCK Specific moves get big in this last leg and we may continue to see sharp rises in broader markets.

-> But on the Nifty it seems we might be in the last 100 points and its better to be very Cautious here!!!

-> Keep very strict stop losses in trading positions

-> Avoid Leverage ( We were pretty much leveraged till yesterday )

-> On the sentiment side when we initiated a strong buy at 4600 nobody was interested and now suddenly there are a lot of BUY CALLS/TIPS/NEWS and analysts have slowly started talking of 5700 etc. Waiting to read more reports like BULLS are BACK , BEARS are Killed etc etc headings. So when the street consensus develops to be positive the markets tend to take a breather.

-> Am i sure of 5400 first or 5000 first — the answer is NO !! So what do we do is just sit back be stock specific and be very light. Investment buying paused ( we were very much invested at 4700-4500 as disclosed many times till now, still holding quite a lot but will reduce tomorrow )

-> But yes we firmly believe we have seen a major long term bottom at 4530 and 15100 as mentioned before. The strategy earlier since August was — Buy the Panics, Short the Rise has now clearly shifted to Buy the Dips and Hold on!! ( example NESCO bought at 550-500 need not be sold for a couple of years )

Yes Yet Again

Every Bull Market starts with a BEAR RALLY !

If you would like to analyse the way we do it in a simple and honest manner and be consistent do join one of your training programs.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION ———

MUMBAI FEBRUARY 4-5

BANGALORE/DELHI planned for February.

If you dont have the inclination to learn and would like to Work on our Exclusive Advise then subscribe to one of our plans which suit you

www.analyseindia.com

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

CEO – Analyse India Market Solutions Private Limited.

SENSEX and NIFTY ————– Setting up for a False Breakout – Be Cautious

nooresh — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 18:35:02 +0000

SENSEX and NIFTY ————– Setting up for a False Breakout – Be Cautious

- > RSI has touched above 70 and Index has corrected generally after doing so in this channel. Although it has even moved to 80 in sharp rises.

-> This is the 3rd attempt to cross 200 day simple moving average and after such a sharp rise it cannot get into a runaway rally.

-> The first breakout out of a downward sloping channel is generally a false breakout followed by a consolidation.

We may expect 5230-5250 and 17500 as critical levels for near term and any sharp spike in case of short covering can get next resistance at 5400 and 17900. Such a new high will show negative divergence and lead to sharp cuts. One may be cautious at every rise from here.

On the longer term picture we have seen a major long term bottom made at 4530 as the pullback crossed previous high of 5100 with good broader market activity. Also S&P CNX Defty did a complete 61.8% retracement.

Major supports are now placed at 5000 for short term.

Although for us we did initiate a short at 5120/5180 with a stoploss of 5230 booked half at 5130 odd levels. We might get stopped out if Nifty closes above 5230. But on the whole we remain very long on specific stocks and the last 1 month has been one of the best gains !! Hope people did act on our view of a short term Rally posted in start of January.

Stock Specific updates:

Adhunik metals, Electro Steel Castings, Prakash Inds and small cap steel companies seeing a lot of buying interest. Speculators can pick their own bet.

Keep watch on Cement sector stocks can see some explosive moves in February

Balaji Amines, Berger Paints, Elecon Engg, Hexaware, Kaveri Seed are some interesting midcaps which can give good returns over the short term.

For more of our exclusive services do checkout www.analyseindia.com

Meanwhile here is a online copy of the Economic Times Article where some of my comments have been posted —-

http://www.analyseindia.com/analyseindia/readPost.jsp?postid=149

Happy Investing

Nooresh Merani

Grasim —- Setting up for a breakout.

nooresh — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 05:56:55 +0000

Grasim — Waiting for a sharp move to 2800.

Disclosure: Have a buy initiated between 2550-2590.

Meanwhile some comments from Nooresh Merani – Analyse India has been published in this Economic Times Article on ‘What to look out for while choosing a course on stock market investments’

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Nifty Technical Update and more.

nooresh — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 19:38:38 +0000

Having picked this turnaround in such a timely manner by gods grace it has kept me way too busy with the stock picking , momentum trades ( obviously on long side ) so have not been able to update the blog. At so many points of time over the last 3 weeks we have had 10-12 open positions on trading side.

On the Nifty side as being mentioned the rally could surprise big time to be frank the move beyond 5100-5150 has come as a surprise to me as well.

The view remains we may see a short term top out at the higher end of the channel. Even if it crosses 5230 levels meaningfully we would expect it to be a failure as its the first breakout. Also considering the fact not many have participated into the rally ( coz of the 4400/4000 Nifty surety and confidence ) the dip may not come fast as there will remain a lot of left out feeling and short covering.

Although we do have a short view initiated at 5120/5180 with a stoploss of 5230 on spot levels the Midcap sector now remains a favorite as we see a lot of turnarounds here and can see sharp jump of 15-20%

Some of the stocks have been discussed below. Disclosure : We have initiated fresh buying in the same in last couple of sessions.

Many other stocks like BHEL( mentioned in this post ) Larsen & Toubro ( check post here ) , Reliance Inds ( check post here ) good moves as expected but mind you its a long term bet.

Some other charts Tata Motors and SBI ( check post here ), BF Utility

Had clearly mentioned exactly a week back at 4650 levels on January 3rd 2012 that Nifty is setting up for a short term rally is the Bearish consensus had become very high. Also the technical reasons were specified in this post — Short Term Rally

People can also start following me on https://twitter.com/nooreshtech for some snippets.

Also for the good response for Master Blaster scheme here is the quick performance review. For more about our Advisory Services check www.analyseindia.com

If you are a High Networth Investor/Trader/Broker or Corporate Institutions and looking for customized services on Advisory , Training can sms me on 09819225396 will get back to you post market hours or drop in a mail to nooreshtech@analyseindia.com .

Also if you like the posts here do share it with your friends and colleagues. Pass the word around. Share, Facebook it , tweet it , IM etc

Every Bull Market starts with a Bear Market Rally.

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

Few Technical Charts – Union Bank of India, Yes Bank and Larsen & Toubro. Some more updates on Nesco, Jayant Agro, IFGL Refractories, Bombay Burmah.

nooresh — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 18:13:59 +0000

Yes Bank — Risky traders may look at shorts on spike to 320. Seems getting into strong resistance.

Union Bank of India —- The preference for PSU banks is what remains. This seems the best of the lot on technicals. Already have a buy view initiated at 193.

Larsen & Toubro — This stock seems to bottom out whenever i have initiated a view of pyramiding

Recent view posted around 1000 recently – http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2011/12/larsen-toubro-nearing-2008-oversold-levels-watch-for-sharp-panics-only-to-buy-very-very-staggered.html

Had earlier initiated such a view at 550 levels in March 2009.

The stock has jumped from 1000 to 1300 in this period i.e 30 % from the lows. Although partial booking was suggested at 1150 whatever left should now be forgotten for long term or review at 1450-1500.

Certain midcap stocsk —

Jayant Agro and IFGL refractories seem interesting for 10-20% jump and can be bought on dips but please do your own research.

NESCO has jumped to 670 levels from the recent lows of 500. Continue to maintain the bullish stance for long term and buy on every dips. Working on a detailed post will update soon as its a stock to be kept for a 2-3 years.

Meanwhile we are still not getting any research or comments done on this post http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2012/01/midcap-and-small-cap-stock-ideas.html about small cap ideas.

Bombay Burmah seems an interesting bet at 400-350 with a defensive approach and patience.

For more of our services — www.analyseindia.com

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Sensex and THE Channel !!

nooresh — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 08:48:04 +0000

Sensex and the Channel —

Every technical analyst or even a fundamental analysts or anyone related to markets have now started talking about this channel

But what everyone forgets is its a 2500-3000 point channel !!!

So if i were to buy on a breakout above 17500 or 5200 it would imply from the lows of 15100 and 4530 i would be buying 15% higher from the lows in a market which has not moved beyond 20% in one direction since the last 15 months almost now.

It just does not make mathematical sense to buy a breakout above 5200

So what have we been doing ?

We like to keep it simple and actionable. Have been buying all the dips ever since we hit sub 16k in Sensex ( this is the Panic bottom http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2011/10/fear-hit-a-10-year-high-around-the-world.html )

Its simpler to buy on the lower end of the channel and keep booking partially on rise to the higher end and wait for a trend change signal. If at all that happens then stick on to the portfolio although there would still be a good percentage in cash.

Also one needs to see this chart on Time Cycles — http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/FinalCycles.jpg

Another observation is this is the first time Midcaps/Smallcaps and broader markets have outperformed by a big margin to the benchmark Index.

The most important observation is this is the first pullback from lows which has gone beyond 73.6% retracement and is coming close to previous top.

This i believe is giving a positive signal or at least stopping us from going short and keep trailing stoploss in our long position till we do not see a down day breaking previous days lows.

With majority of the consensus still expecting a correction can Nifty surprise towards 5150/5250 ? I dont really know but i would now wait for a turnaround signal to short then to do a pre-emptive shorts like previous pullbacks.

Stock Specific Updates :

There have been a few updates on NESCO mentioned by a few bloggers — You can read neeraj marathe’s post here and some more links in it. Well i would be posting on a few catalysts to NESCO giving a different perspective soon once the action reduces on the indices. Maintain my super bullish view on NESCO. ( one the personal favorites for next 1-3 yrs ). Have advised accumulation on every level below 580.

Smartlink remains an excellent bet and one can expect more clarity over the next 3 months.

Disclosure: As mentioned in our previous updates that we are pretty much invested at 4700-4500 levels we continue to have very low cash on hand but focus on more defensives. The short term leverage longs ( On January 1st week we had 10-15 long trading positions open ) have been cut down big time with profit booking. Recently the focus has been PSU Banks like KTK Bank, Oriental Bank and Union Bank bought at lower levels. Will increase cash if at all we see a big spike in specific stocks but fresh investment buying put on a hold from here.

Midcap and Small Cap Stock Ideas

nooresh — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 17:04:27 +0000

Though the title says it to be ideas but the post below is not about Stock Ideas but about stocks which are worth a look for researching. Not at all a buy or sell recommendation.

So readers who track the stocks below and have a much detailed view or data on the stock below can put it in the comment box or mail it to me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

As always the focus remains on studying midcaps and smallcaps and currently it seems a good time as the activity has started in the segment finally after a year !!

I would just be putting a stock Name a couple of Cues and would leave it to the readers to add more research. Mind you these are not buy or sell recommendations so we dont need price targets or criticism about the stock/management etc. This is an exercise to inculcate the idea of Researching before Investing as majority of Investors first buy a stock and then research on it.

1) 3i Infotech ——- CMP 16.2

Market Cap of 310 crores. Revenues of 2500 odd crores. But the major concern is debts of 2000-2500 crores. Will it turnaround with CDR or die a slow death?

2) Aarti Inds —- CMP 48.85

Div yield of 5%. Book Value of 65 +. P – E of 6. Debts of 550 cr. Looks pretty interesting on the numbers but does the business have that potential.

3) Allsec Technologies — CMP 11.15

Current Market Cap of 17 cr.

At one point of time First Carlyle Ventures had an open offer to buy at 260. The stock also went to 370 + levels in 2007. Marquee names in the shareholding pattern have 48% holding:). Ashish Dhawan is one with 7% holding. Will the company ever revive ? its quoting at less then 5% of its peak value.

Even if its not an Investment it definitely is a great study of Where not to INVEST

4) B L Kashyap & Sons —- CMP 11.6

Market Cap of 246 crores. A provident fund evasion led to a suit of 590 crores . Good enough debts, promoter holding pledged and the concerns just continue. But there seems to be an entry of some domestic funds like ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund and an exit of many of the funds which bought the stock at superbly high levels

5) Balmer Lawrie — CMP 507

Majority of the fundamental analysts love this company as a defensive bet at particular price levels. Currently it quotes at a div yield of 5% and p-e of less then 7.

I would personally suggest this stock at 500-420 levels to be accumulated but please do your own research.

6)Balrampur Chini — CMP 40.2

This could be the most interesting bet to play if one is looking at the sugar cycle. Read this well written post by Neeraj –

One of the reasons to look into the stock is the company did a buy back of 9% of equity at a price of 71 rs in July 2011. Maybe they got the timing wrong with Mayawati and the government. But is definitely worth a watch as in the next cycle this would be very well placed.

7) Bartonics

Not at all a buy call. This was one of the example shown to me by a good fundamental analyst as to how companies keep showing great profit nos on accounting but hiding them in the sundry debtors. A must case study for all

BF Utility — CMP 364

The NICE corridor had P-E arms waiting to dole out a lot of cash and still the potential remains it seems. ( I have not looked into details but have a technical buy call initiated fro 315 levels for 380 + targets and we have been initiating day calls on the stock for last few days. Technically the stock seems to have turned around for long term. )

9) BOC India —- CMP 309

This is yet another defensive pick which can be a good delisting candidate. Disclosure: Have had a buy view since long at 310-270 levels:) waiting patiently. Expect delisting offer at 400-450 whenever it comes. Also the shareholding suggests the offer can go ahead this time.

10) Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation — CMP 396

Had earlier covered at 400-450 and saw a 50% jump quickly. The holding value is huge check detailed post here. With yesterdays runup in Bombay Dyeing the stock looks pretty interesting. If somebody has a view of 3-5 years one may definitely look into this stock. Holding value should be 1500-2000 crores. Current market cap at 550 crores. So downside could be limited over the long run.

In the same breadth i would mention about Bombay Dyeing — where insiders have been continously buying at 330-360 levels and has given a technical breakout yesterday.

So today we have covered stocks with the alphabets A-B and we still have space till Z. Definitely we do have a lot of work and opportunities.

For more of our services — www.analyseindia.com

Meanwhile the New Year Gift offer at Rs 2999 for a year may not stay for long — For more call Asif 09833666151

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

The Mad Bull Rally in MMTC, Hind Copper, Dredging Corporation, STC India and other PSUs a Manipulation ?

nooresh — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 06:36:39 +0000

One of the most recent events was a mad run in PSU stocks like MMTC, Hind Copper, Dredging Corporation etc ( Disclosure: We did have intra day buy calls on hind copper and dredging corporation to be part of this run though booked on the first 2-3 days )

Now let us look at this stock — MMTC – It doubled in less than 2 weeks !

- > The stock has only 0.66 % shareholding with the public and rest with president of india. So out of the 66 lakh shares which there are hardly 12-15 lakh are individual shareholders and rest must be with corporate bodies.

-> So the stock is bound to such manipulations.

-> Until end of december the stock would trade only 2000-5000 shares. Suddenly this rocketed to 1000 levels from 450 thats a rise of 100% in extreme short time with volumes of 5-20 lakh shares. This is like 100 – 500 times the average volumes.

-> I had tweeted that there is something fishy about this PSU run and now during the weekend got time to look into the details.

- > On one of the days in this run MMTC had a volume of 27 lakh shares. The company hardly has that much floating stock.

This made me look into the delivery percentage to total volumes.

Date	Price	Volume	Delivery	Delivery Percentage
12/26/2011	496.4	4382	713	16.27%
12/27/2011	490.4	3530	925	26.20%
12/28/2011	477.75	1387	740	53.35%
12/29/2011	469.65	1363	520	38.15%
12/30/2011	537.9	329990	9755	2.96%
01-02-2012	519	154440	6194	4.01%
01-03-2012	619.75	740284	14203	1.92%
01-04-2012	729.8	2702927	23602	0.87%
01-05-2012	779.3	1517691	21192	1.40%
01-06-2012	826.7	1546722	22608	1.46%
01-07-2012	895.65	572392	22095	3.86%
01-09-2012	968	1766792	35092	1.99%
01-10-2012	981.65	836839	20997	2.51%
01-11-2012	951.5	452258	21234	4.70%
01-12-2012	947.65	703626	22898	3.25%
01/13/2012	952.6	231395	12945	5.59%

- > Now this data of delivery percentage some really revealing statistics. On one of the days only 0.87% of total volumes was market for delivery. Total Volume was 27 lakh shares on that day.

-> Implies that 99% of the trades were squared in the day.

-> The question now comes is the stock doubled in 15 sessions with less than 2 lakh shares of delivery marking.

- > The delivery data is very similar for stocks like Hind Copper, STC India and Dredging Corporation.

- > None of these stocks have Free Float enough to trade such high volumes. So basically what we saw is a mob who just kept buying and selling these stocks or there was some concerted effort to manipulate these stocks.

We had a buy trade on Hind Copper at 180-200 and STC India at 140-160 roughly for a couple of days ( technical entry at start then could not accept the manipulation) and then once even had a short trade which gave a small stop hit if i remember well.

So whatever be it one needs to understand that Hind Copper, STC India, Dredging Corporation and MMTC will be susceptible to such sharp manipulations and above all for investors the stocks may well be avoided unless they have done a detailed study. I have no fundamental views on the above apart from reading STC India and Dredging corporation having good assets.

But this move definitely was a motivated one and is worth a look from Regulatory Authorities.

For more of our services — www.analyseindia.com

Meanwhile the New Year Gift offer at Rs 2999 for a year may not stay for long — For more call Asif 09833666151

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com