Technical view by Nooresh

Stock Specific Updates

nooresh — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 07:20:16 +0000

Attached below are the Technical Charts for some of the stocks looking good in the near term.

Click on the link below to see Technical Charts with Targets and Stoplosses.

http://www.analyseindia.com/analyseindia/readPost.jsp?postid=153

Interesting Technical Chart— Aarti Inds, Ambuja Cements , GoodYear India

nooresh — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:47:00 +0000

Aarti Inds — It was earlier discussed around 45-48 levels as an interesting stock. The breakout came and did a good 20% spurt. This confirms a turnaround in the stock and now one can buy on retracements.

Earlier discussions — Link 1 , Link 2 ,

This is the Ambuja Cements chart made yesterday when we initiated a buy at 164 to clients.

We have maintained the stance of Cements being the most defensive bet in the Large caps !! and bang on all of them are hitting 52 week highs.

Earlier view on cement stocks — Cements — the next sector to watchout for

We recently bought into Grasim at 2550-2590 ( cmp 2660 ) and holding on. Posted the chart here

Even Ultra Tech Cements, Shree Cements remain a favorite which have performed well.

BF utility —– The stock was posted at 320 levels has done the target of 390. Book profits — Check post here.

Couple of chakri stocks being rigged — DAZZEL CONFINDIVE LTD. and Confidence Petro. Though the stock can just continue to runaway one can only look for entertainment.

One more stock Indian Infotech & enterprises seems going the Avance technology and Market Manipulation Way

If you would like to analyse the way we do it in a simple and honest manner and be consistent do join one of your training programs.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION ———

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DELHI 18 –19.

BANGALORE February

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Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

CEO – Analyse India Market Solutions Private Limited.

Volume Analysis on Nifty- Short Term Divergence and Long term Confirmations.

nooresh — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 18:36:21 +0000

Nifty Futures —

There were huge volumes in the downtrend.

The current rise has not seen any rise in volumes.

There can be two ways to look at it:

The bullish Way

- > There is no speculative buying.

-> Huge shorts were created in the fall and will now lead to scampering of shorts.

The Bearish Way

-> The rise is not supported with volumes. Not enough conviction.

-> The fall can be sharp any time when this move stops.

Nifty Spot

There has been a significant rise in volumes in the current rally.

Today is the highest volumes ( but we had some big change of hands so cannot be considered )

But overall the rise has been supported by Cash volumes.

Interpretations

-> The rise is supported with volumes which give conviction in the rise.

-> Although previous rise did come with volumes but this is after a sharp drop in volumes.

-> This is a classical trend change indicator.

So on the volume analysis it clearly tells us the trend has changed but on RSI and other indicators it also tells us this is stretching a bit too much

The recent top at 5217 and todays high which is at 5244 shows a lower RSI value. So any further highs to

5300-5400 will definitely be RSI divergence.

In such a case the upside could get capped in near term but it is not necessary that we may correct sharply.

Also we are reaching a highly overbought stage but its also a breakout beyond 70 which never happened at previous channel tops !

So near term rise to 5300-5400 is a risky one to buy into .

Bottomline :

-> The clear change in trend spotted at 4600 for 4900/5100 was very well picked by us and benefitted all the readers i suppose.

-> We did get stopped out on the Nifty short but it was a small hit of 50 points but the heavy stock longs compensated it.

-> The most important point is TREND REMAINS positive but its showing divergence signals.

-> STOCK Specific moves get big in this last leg and we may continue to see sharp rises in broader markets.

-> But on the Nifty it seems we might be in the last 100 points and its better to be very Cautious here!!!

-> Keep very strict stop losses in trading positions

-> Avoid Leverage ( We were pretty much leveraged till yesterday )

-> On the sentiment side when we initiated a strong buy at 4600 nobody was interested and now suddenly there are a lot of BUY CALLS/TIPS/NEWS and analysts have slowly started talking of 5700 etc. Waiting to read more reports like BULLS are BACK , BEARS are Killed etc etc headings. So when the street consensus develops to be positive the markets tend to take a breather.

-> Am i sure of 5400 first or 5000 first — the answer is NO !! So what do we do is just sit back be stock specific and be very light. Investment buying paused ( we were very much invested at 4700-4500 as disclosed many times till now, still holding quite a lot but will reduce tomorrow )

-> But yes we firmly believe we have seen a major long term bottom at 4530 and 15100 as mentioned before. The strategy earlier since August was — Buy the Panics, Short the Rise has now clearly shifted to Buy the Dips and Hold on!! ( example NESCO bought at 550-500 need not be sold for a couple of years )

Yes Yet Again

Every Bull Market starts with a BEAR RALLY !

If you would like to analyse the way we do it in a simple and honest manner and be consistent do join one of your training programs.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION ———

MUMBAI FEBRUARY 4-5

BANGALORE/DELHI planned for February.

If you dont have the inclination to learn and would like to Work on our Exclusive Advise then subscribe to one of our plans which suit you

www.analyseindia.com

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

CEO – Analyse India Market Solutions Private Limited.

Bank Nifty – Technical View

nooresh — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 07:20:11 +0000

Bank Nifty is facing a resistance around the 9900 – 10000 level.

It may make a false move above this level. Traders can look to short around resistance levels.

A quick fall may take place below 9500.

Click to See Chart

http://www.analyseindia.com/analyseindia/readPost.jsp?postid=151

SENSEX and NIFTY ————– Setting up for a False Breakout – Be Cautious

nooresh — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 18:35:02 +0000

SENSEX and NIFTY ————– Setting up for a False Breakout – Be Cautious

- > RSI has touched above 70 and Index has corrected generally after doing so in this channel. Although it has even moved to 80 in sharp rises.

-> This is the 3rd attempt to cross 200 day simple moving average and after such a sharp rise it cannot get into a runaway rally.

-> The first breakout out of a downward sloping channel is generally a false breakout followed by a consolidation.

We may expect 5230-5250 and 17500 as critical levels for near term and any sharp spike in case of short covering can get next resistance at 5400 and 17900. Such a new high will show negative divergence and lead to sharp cuts. One may be cautious at every rise from here.

On the longer term picture we have seen a major long term bottom made at 4530 as the pullback crossed previous high of 5100 with good broader market activity. Also S&P CNX Defty did a complete 61.8% retracement.

Major supports are now placed at 5000 for short term.

Although for us we did initiate a short at 5120/5180 with a stoploss of 5230 booked half at 5130 odd levels. We might get stopped out if Nifty closes above 5230. But on the whole we remain very long on specific stocks and the last 1 month has been one of the best gains !! Hope people did act on our view of a short term Rally posted in start of January.

Stock Specific updates:

Adhunik metals, Electro Steel Castings, Prakash Inds and small cap steel companies seeing a lot of buying interest. Speculators can pick their own bet.

Keep watch on Cement sector stocks can see some explosive moves in February

Balaji Amines, Berger Paints, Elecon Engg, Hexaware, Kaveri Seed are some interesting midcaps which can give good returns over the short term.

For more of our exclusive services do checkout www.analyseindia.com

Meanwhile here is a online copy of the Economic Times Article where some of my comments have been posted —-

http://www.analyseindia.com/analyseindia/readPost.jsp?postid=149

Happy Investing

Nooresh Merani

Stock Specific Updates

nooresh — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 11:07:19 +0000

Attached below are the Technical Charts for some of the stocks looking good in the near term.

Click on the link below to see Targets and Stoplosses, along with the charts.

http://www.analyseindia.com/analyseindia/readPost.jsp?postid=150

Grasim —- Setting up for a breakout.

nooresh — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 05:56:55 +0000

Grasim — Waiting for a sharp move to 2800.

Disclosure: Have a buy initiated between 2550-2590.

Meanwhile some comments from Nooresh Merani – Analyse India has been published in this Economic Times Article on ‘What to look out for while choosing a course on stock market investments’

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Nifty Technical Update and more.

nooresh — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 19:38:38 +0000

Having picked this turnaround in such a timely manner by gods grace it has kept me way too busy with the stock picking , momentum trades ( obviously on long side ) so have not been able to update the blog. At so many points of time over the last 3 weeks we have had 10-12 open positions on trading side.

On the Nifty side as being mentioned the rally could surprise big time to be frank the move beyond 5100-5150 has come as a surprise to me as well.

The view remains we may see a short term top out at the higher end of the channel. Even if it crosses 5230 levels meaningfully we would expect it to be a failure as its the first breakout. Also considering the fact not many have participated into the rally ( coz of the 4400/4000 Nifty surety and confidence ) the dip may not come fast as there will remain a lot of left out feeling and short covering.

Although we do have a short view initiated at 5120/5180 with a stoploss of 5230 on spot levels the Midcap sector now remains a favorite as we see a lot of turnarounds here and can see sharp jump of 15-20%

Some of the stocks have been discussed below. Disclosure : We have initiated fresh buying in the same in last couple of sessions.

Many other stocks like BHEL( mentioned in this post ) Larsen & Toubro ( check post here ) , Reliance Inds ( check post here ) good moves as expected but mind you its a long term bet.

Some other charts Tata Motors and SBI ( check post here ), BF Utility

Had clearly mentioned exactly a week back at 4650 levels on January 3rd 2012 that Nifty is setting up for a short term rally is the Bearish consensus had become very high. Also the technical reasons were specified in this post — Short Term Rally

People can also start following me on https://twitter.com/nooreshtech for some snippets.

Also for the good response for Master Blaster scheme here is the quick performance review. For more about our Advisory Services check www.analyseindia.com

If you are a High Networth Investor/Trader/Broker or Corporate Institutions and looking for customized services on Advisory , Training can sms me on 09819225396 will get back to you post market hours or drop in a mail to nooreshtech@analyseindia.com .

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Every Bull Market starts with a Bear Market Rally.

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

Few Technical Charts – Union Bank of India, Yes Bank and Larsen & Toubro. Some more updates on Nesco, Jayant Agro, IFGL Refractories, Bombay Burmah.

nooresh — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 18:13:59 +0000

Yes Bank — Risky traders may look at shorts on spike to 320. Seems getting into strong resistance.

Union Bank of India —- The preference for PSU banks is what remains. This seems the best of the lot on technicals. Already have a buy view initiated at 193.

Larsen & Toubro — This stock seems to bottom out whenever i have initiated a view of pyramiding

Recent view posted around 1000 recently – http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2011/12/larsen-toubro-nearing-2008-oversold-levels-watch-for-sharp-panics-only-to-buy-very-very-staggered.html

Had earlier initiated such a view at 550 levels in March 2009.

The stock has jumped from 1000 to 1300 in this period i.e 30 % from the lows. Although partial booking was suggested at 1150 whatever left should now be forgotten for long term or review at 1450-1500.

Certain midcap stocsk —

Jayant Agro and IFGL refractories seem interesting for 10-20% jump and can be bought on dips but please do your own research.

NESCO has jumped to 670 levels from the recent lows of 500. Continue to maintain the bullish stance for long term and buy on every dips. Working on a detailed post will update soon as its a stock to be kept for a 2-3 years.

Meanwhile we are still not getting any research or comments done on this post http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2012/01/midcap-and-small-cap-stock-ideas.html about small cap ideas.

Bombay Burmah seems an interesting bet at 400-350 with a defensive approach and patience.

For more of our services — www.analyseindia.com

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Sensex and THE Channel !!

nooresh — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 08:48:04 +0000

Sensex and the Channel —

Every technical analyst or even a fundamental analysts or anyone related to markets have now started talking about this channel

But what everyone forgets is its a 2500-3000 point channel !!!

So if i were to buy on a breakout above 17500 or 5200 it would imply from the lows of 15100 and 4530 i would be buying 15% higher from the lows in a market which has not moved beyond 20% in one direction since the last 15 months almost now.

It just does not make mathematical sense to buy a breakout above 5200

So what have we been doing ?

We like to keep it simple and actionable. Have been buying all the dips ever since we hit sub 16k in Sensex ( this is the Panic bottom http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2011/10/fear-hit-a-10-year-high-around-the-world.html )

Its simpler to buy on the lower end of the channel and keep booking partially on rise to the higher end and wait for a trend change signal. If at all that happens then stick on to the portfolio although there would still be a good percentage in cash.

Also one needs to see this chart on Time Cycles — http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/FinalCycles.jpg

Another observation is this is the first time Midcaps/Smallcaps and broader markets have outperformed by a big margin to the benchmark Index.

The most important observation is this is the first pullback from lows which has gone beyond 73.6% retracement and is coming close to previous top.

This i believe is giving a positive signal or at least stopping us from going short and keep trailing stoploss in our long position till we do not see a down day breaking previous days lows.

With majority of the consensus still expecting a correction can Nifty surprise towards 5150/5250 ? I dont really know but i would now wait for a turnaround signal to short then to do a pre-emptive shorts like previous pullbacks.

Stock Specific Updates :

There have been a few updates on NESCO mentioned by a few bloggers — You can read neeraj marathe’s post here and some more links in it. Well i would be posting on a few catalysts to NESCO giving a different perspective soon once the action reduces on the indices. Maintain my super bullish view on NESCO. ( one the personal favorites for next 1-3 yrs ). Have advised accumulation on every level below 580.

Smartlink remains an excellent bet and one can expect more clarity over the next 3 months.

Disclosure: As mentioned in our previous updates that we are pretty much invested at 4700-4500 levels we continue to have very low cash on hand but focus on more defensives. The short term leverage longs ( On January 1st week we had 10-15 long trading positions open ) have been cut down big time with profit booking. Recently the focus has been PSU Banks like KTK Bank, Oriental Bank and Union Bank bought at lower levels. Will increase cash if at all we see a big spike in specific stocks but fresh investment buying put on a hold from here.