Technical view by Nooresh

BEML for the week, Venus Remedies for Medium term

nooresh — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:05:57 +0000

BEML:

Strong breakout seen above 1040 levels The stock should move upto 1160 in extreme short term. Buy with a stoploss of 1020.

Venus Remedies:

Strong Breakout on weekly charts at 290 levels. Accumulate at 295-300 and on dips with a stoploss of 275. The stock should do a target of 335/400 in medium term.

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Sensex bounces back from 17800 – Be Disciplined

nooresh — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 20:22:09 +0000

Sensex Technical View:

As expected we saw a nice bounce from the levels of 17800. For now it seems the range of 17800-18500 is being maintained. Till we dont see a breakout above the upper channel or a break below 17800 one should continue the disciplined approach. Though index traders can get a lot of buy and sell trades which we do get in our Nifty Day Trades.

Stocks to watchout for :

GAIL has given a breakout and is headed to 490.

ACC has given a breakout at 885 should head to 920-940 in short term.

Disclosure recommended both the above stocks for short term trades.

Day traders can buy Ranbaxy with a stoploss of 496 and target 510.

Dish Tv seems all set for 58 in near term

Ramsarup Inds looks interesting for bounce back traders.

Stocks being researched for Small Cap Analysis – Sirpur Paper, Salora International, Nitta Gelatin, TCi finance — Please mail in your views to me at noorrock2002@gmail.com

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Sept 4th Saturday

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Venue :

Reliance Inds – Option Strategy

nooresh — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 18:55:48 +0000

Please read the whole post before taking a position. Also be ready with the risks involved.

Option Strategy

Short Strangle: Reliance September 960 call, 880 put

Recommended Strategy:

Sell Reliance Sept 960 call @ 14-15, also Sell Reliance Sept 880 put @ 14-15

Currently, September 960 Call and 880 Put options of NIFTY are

Hovering around Rs 15 and Rs 15 respectively, giving a total premium

inflow of Rs 30.

We recommend profit booking when total premium falls drastically to almost zero levels , with a stop

loss of Rs 45. The expected ROI (not annualized) from the strategy

is 10%, with an investment of Rs 75000 per lot (both sides

combined).

As per our derivative proprietary models, we expect Reliance to trade in

the zone of Rs 850 and Rs 990 during the September series.

Moreover, the profit zone for the above mentioned strategy is Rs

880 to Rs 960.

Pay off Matrix:

P/l = Profit or Loss

Expiry Price	Call P/l	Put P/l	Net P/l	P/l per lot
1020	(45)	15	(30)	-7500
990	(15)	15	0	0
960	15	15	30	7500
920	15	15	30	7500
850	15	(15)	0	0
820	15	(45)	(30)	-7500

Sensex back from 18300-18500/ Nifty from 5500-5550 Channel Resistance

nooresh — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 18:39:16 +0000

Sensex Technical View:

In my posts for quite some time that to short roughly in the range of 18300-18600. Check this post at 18500 Article at 18500. So index traders may have got 100-150 points on Nifty.

The support levels mentioned were 18100/17800 in near term. Todays low at 17820 and subsequent recovery suggests the importance of the level. Last 3-4 bottoms have been in that range. So we can expect some pullback from these levels.

If we break 17800 would imply the markets enter a 50% retracement to 17200 levels also.

Nifty Technical View:

Similarly for Nifty had mentioned about 5550 being a stiff resistance.

For now the recent bottoms have been around 5350 which is still holding up.

A break below the same opens up to the 50% retracement to 5150-5170 levels.

For this time around we booked profits a bit early at 5450 as we took a 40 point upswing trade also.

BottomLine:

Increase cash in the portfolio.

Continue to hold cash in portfolio – ( roughly 20-40% depending on investment style)

Wait for more clarity in coming 2 weeks. Be ready to re-enter at 17000-17500 if it comes or as when markets give turnaround signals.

One has to realize that at some point of time one can go wrong in the market and its only discipline which keeps us long enough in the markets. So as advised continue to avoid leverage totally at this levels.

We will have a re-look at 17200 or as and when we see a turnaround.

Stocks to watchout for :

Have had a few bad picks in last couple of weeks but that have been down 5-10% but we as investors/traders have started finding a 10% hit difficult to digest suggests that people are going on leverage or not diversiffying.

For example Kaveri Seeds is down 10-14% suppose if its 10-15% of my 10 lakh portfolio that would mean a hit of 1-2% max on the portfolio which should be digestable if it is not then one needs to look into diversification and strategy.

GAIL looks strong and interesting. Buy with a stoploss of 440 or on sustaining above 472 with a strict stop of 460. Target Price 490-515

Cipla looks weak and if closes below 300 can go all the way to 275/260.

Reliance Inds as had mentioned could see some weakness below 960 has cracked to 915 levels. In near term the stock could do 910/860 also. Investors only with long term can buy part quantity now wait for 860 if comes.

Some of the Must Read Posts on NooreshTech

nooresh — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 20:42:31 +0000

In the last few months the no of new readers on the website keeps increasing and as per the statistics on the site stats not many seem to have searched through the blog to see previous articles. So today with yet another sluggish market day giving a lot of stuff to read to all of you

Although there are just too many instances of posts which would have been of great help to readers.

Listing down a few important ones and will keep adding more to this post. ( Old readers can comment and suggest on which ones to add:)

The list below is compiled of one of the presentations we had made in 2009 !! – You can also download a PDF if u want a shorter view of the same –

Best Blog Posts of 2009.

Click on the links below to go to the selected post.

1) Increase cash at 21k in January 2008 – Warning Given

2) Sell Call on Crude at 145 calling for a Massive Correction

3) Sensex Video Analysis calling an exit below 16k in 2008 May

4) Sensex Time Analysis in February calling for a bottom around March and big move therafter.

5) April 07 – 2009 – Tripple treat – Hang Seng/Nikkei and India – Major trend change !!

6) May 27 – Statistics can be deceptive

7) Sensex time to increase cash at 16k

May 04 2009 – The next big move is in crude

9) Crude Follow up article June 25 2009

10) Sensex rising wedge suggesting 17k tgt

11) Sensex rising wedge target was given as 15500

12) Sensex 15300-15500 should hold up – VIDEO ANALYSIS

I would advise New Readers/Old Loyal followers to go through the above posts to understand the effectiveness of Technical Analysis. Also can pass this link to people interested in Stock Markets/Technical Analysis

Very soon will try to make such a compilation of 2006/2007/2008 and 2010 . Yes for the record i started writing regularly on this Blog from October 2006 before which i used to write on orkut community and forums.

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Sensex at 20,500 or 14,500 in next 6-9 months —- Time to be Cautiously Optimistic.

nooresh — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 05:12:48 +0000

The last time we gave a detailed presentation on our website was on May 21 2010. In our ARTICLE we had shown a chart with a view that Index would turnaround from 16000-16400.The title of the article was – Time to be Optimistic not scared. We were the only few who were bullish for 18k to be crossed in JulyJ and the low made was 15960 very close to our view !!! And now we are at 18000-18500.

Recently in our free seminar in Mumbai we had mentioned about a huge resistance around 18400-18600 and we are continuously seeing a dip coming from that zone.

Also we had discussed the possibilities for the Sensex in next 2-3 quarters. After almost a year of range bound move we expect the markets will see a major directional move which should ideally take the markets towards 20500 or 14500. So investors need to be ready to face the big move possibility. Below,I would discuss the all three possibilities and the one which we favor.

Sensex possibility one We favor this one )

Sensex dips to 17800-17200 zone and turns around totally to head towards 18600/20500 over the next 2-3 quarters.

Strategy: As being mentioned to keep increasing cash at 18400 and avoiding leverage should now look to deploy the same at 17200-17800 range slowly with a stoploss of 16900 on closing basis.

Sensex possibility Two:

Sensex dips to 17100-17400 and bounces back sharply by a few hundred points and then starts the major decline towards 16500/14500.

Strategy: Sell only when after the bounce back of a few hundred points or on break of 16900.

Sensex possibility Three :

Sensex maintains the range of last 1 year and dips to 16300-16500 over the next 1-2 months and then back to 18900.

Strategy: Wait for a drop to 16300-16500 to build long positions. And we have been perfectly timing this range so nothing to worry at all J

We will review the above scenarios in our weekly posts as and when we reach 17800/17200.

False Starts ! Time to reduce volumes

nooresh — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 20:15:37 +0000

In the last few weeks have seen that Large cap stocks have not seen follow up buying as there is not much of index support. But many of such moves have first dipped and then zoomed up.

So many a times stock give a breakout jump a 5% and then dip back to lower levels testing and even breaking breakout levels before starting on the real move.

Learn the same after missing out on the big trades in following stocks.

Bhushan Steel got a good 50-80 bucks but missed out on the 250 pointer trade

Opto Circuits booked at nominal gains and stock ended up 10-15% higher.

Some Stocks that look bullish after giving False Starts ….

Piramal Healthcare after giving a quick move from 512 to 532 the stock is back to 500 giving a false start. The stock could now test patience for next few sessions. If holds 490-495 then could expect a recovery.

If sustains below 493 for 10-15 mins one could take a chance of selling and re-entering at 470-475.

After a few sessions would expect the stock to be back on its way to a target of 540/580 in 1-2 mths time frame.

ACC after a sharp move from 855 to 885 has dipped. Can start a new move in next few sessions.

Aditya Birla Nuvo another false mover. Luckily here we bought at 830 and sold at 850. Looks interesting if dips to 810.

A possible false start could be seen in the stocks below

Some Stocks which are giving weak signals but i doubt the efficacy of the breakdowns …

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Nooresh

Profit-Booking or Selling? – 17800/18100 levels could give the answer

nooresh — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 19:36:45 +0000

SENSEX TECHNICAL VIEW:

After quite a few sessions of sluggish moves we got some bit of broad based selling seen in the markets today.

For near term the trendline support comes around 18100 and the next important level is 17800.

Once we break 17800 then only can we look at lower targets.

On the upside the channel at 18400-18600 continues to be a strong resistance.

NIFTY TECHNICAL VIEW:

Similarly on the Nifty after hitting the higher end of the channel has been correcting. Lower end trendline comes to 5430.

The major trend decider lies at 5350.

For now we have covered half our shorts at 5480 and next will either do at 5430 or sell again at higher levels with a stop of 5570.

We have started with a Intra Day/Short term Nifty Trading calls- For more details you can mail us on analyseindia@gmail.com

Strong Technical Buy – Rico Auto

nooresh — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 20:23:11 +0000

In the last few months we have been selectively picking Auto Ancillary Stocks and shifting after making good gains. The last 3 good trades were Autoline Inds 140 to 180/200. Motherson 155 to 185 , Auto Corp Goa 320 to 390 the next pick we have come down to is Rico Auto which looks interesting with medium term outlook.

The stock should ideally target 40 levels in medium term.

Disclosure:

Recommended in Delivery Gains/QuickGains at 29/27 . Intended purchase over.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION MUMBAI scheduled for Sept 4-5. For more details get in touch with Kazim 09821237002 to confirm your seat.

NEW OFFERING : Please look into the document below to get our ADVISORY SERVICES AT ABSOLUTELY ZERO COST !!!

Will put a post on it soon..Click below to know the details.

VALUE FOR MONEy !!! VFM

Cheers,

Nooresh

JBF Inds , Nicholas Piramal, Sirpur Paper, Lakshmi Machine Works

nooresh — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 20:15:08 +0000

Yet again i am back with a new set of stockcharts.Due to the time constraints wont be able to give follow ups so stick to the stoploss as well as targets to book profits. Lakshmi Vilas has for example done the move from 98 to 125 !!

JBF Inds:

The stock has given a fresh breakout at 146 and should head to 165++ levels in short term. Earlier the stock was recommended at 100-110 on the blog.

Fundamentals are pretty interesting so risk is low and high returns.

Disclosure:

Recommended in Delivery Gains/Short Term Delivery at 140-144 ( got 6 rs dividend too ).

Maintaining hold for 165+

Nicholas Piramal:

Another stock which can surprise possibly wth a favorable announcement.

A good technical trade on sustaining 512 levels. Target price of 540/580 + in short term. Downside risk is low.

SIRPUR PAPER :

The stock looks excellent on the Enterprise Valuation but the volumes dissuaded me to look into small cap coverage. But will surely have a re-look after the current move to 75 subsides.

At 100 crores market cap it seems to be one of the cheaper stocks in paper segment in comparison to the huge capacities they have built up though performance has been bad on earnings.

In near term the stock should head to 75+.

Disclosure:

Recommended in QuickGains Premium Service at 63.

Laskhmi Machine Works:

The stock has been in a tight range for last 6-8 months. Has given a breakout and will catch more power on crossing 2250 levels. Expect a move to 2500 +

For more of our services check http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/services or speak to Asif 09833666151 to help you out

Cheers,

Nooresh 09819225396 ( After Market Hours in case you are looking for personalized services or more details)