Sensex Technical View :
Few days back the view was clear that its time to book profits at 15500-15800. Although markets could not go to the 15800 tgt it reached 15580 before dipping back. The current dip should come down till the fibonacci levels of 14400/14050/13700. Technically would prefer a dip in the zone of 38/50 % from where a bounceback can be seen. As discussed before the correction phase from 12500 could last 50 odd sessions in the corrective and upsides are 15800 -16400 and 13700 on lower side. So expect a range bound moves inside the above zones.
For a detailed technical view check the presentation -
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Stocks to watchout for :
Ansal Infra seems to be staging a bounce back and can tgt 120 + .
Insecticides India seems to have given a breaout on charts. Sustaining 60 levels could see a move to 75 + and the sector seems to be in demand. Can be bought arnd 55 stop of 51.
Sunday Thoughts :
In the last few months the move up from 12500 to 15500 has caught lot of people on the wrong side of it or totally missed the action. Although people may term it Bear Rally ! and ya it is but everyoone out here is a trader/investor so what matters the returns a rally or a fall can generate. So in that case the move up is almost 25 % from the lows on the INDEX.
As being a techie and with a bias to statistical obervations just checked out the current 25 % rise was one of the fastest ever scene on the index in arnd 18-20 sessions. Many people consider Oct to Jan was a good time i suppose but it too 3 mths for index to rise 25 % ... Only a fed move , Bounce after Jan crash were as fast as this one.
Although we have just seen Index lets have a look on some of the best performers from lows to high and many of them were our favourite picks in the correction !
RCAP - 50-55 %
LIC Housing 60-63%
BOI 55-58 %
SBI 60-63 %
TAta Chemicals 65-70 %
Well this kind of returns in large cap stocs takes arnd 3-6 or more months. So even if one has done gradual buying and partial bookings every stock above gave a minimum return of 30 % !. Thats a decent performance 😉 .Even others like RPL , Reliance in large caps bounced 20 % +. IFCI 50% , Praj 25 % all were recommended in client calls for investment. Tata Steel,IDFC were laggards.
Statistically it means even if this is a BEAR RALLY if one goes for good researched stock picking at the current time such a move could give much better returns then a secular bull run.
Well its easier said then done coz it does require patience and a clear view to go buying at value and panic levels or go staggered in a drifting market when the world around is shouting 9-10k !!! . But i believe thats what investing is all about patience and belief ! .
We had a clear view at 14100 to 12.5k to go for staggered buying into stock specific picks which turned out to be the best performers !! . And as part of discipline the profits booked partially according to stock specific gains and rest at 15100( 50-70 % ) and 15500 ( rest totally) .
Yet again i believe lots of investors are undecided . There is a section which is which missed 12k levels wanting it back and other expecting 16-17k to exit the stock stuck at 21k ! ...
But one thing that i have observed and heard from seniors which will end the topic is
" If Markets start following the consensus of the normal marketmen/investor/trader then it would no more be an exciting place to do BUSINESS ! "
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