NAV Prop Up to ETF selling. Bharti Airtel – Contrarian Bounce ?

There was a time many years back when we would see a jump up in last 30 minutes of a Quarter End or Year End in Nifty or in certain illiquid stocks with high institutional holding. This was to prop up the NAV.

The current structure of the market has changed to automated ETF Flows and we are now starting to see high volumes in last 30 mins on the last day of the month.

Will keep this a small post with a few charts.

 

FII Figures

-8300 cr on 26th Feb

-5930 Cr on 29th Jan

+7700 cr on 27th Nov

-3395 cr on 31st Aug

Lets look at the price action in last 30 mins on last 2 instances.

Nifty - A 100 point down tick in 3-5 mins and 200 points in last 20-30 mins on 29th Jan and 26th Feb 

29th Jan 2020. - 1 day before budget 

100-200 points down between 3-3.05 pm.

200 points from 3-3.30 pm.

26th Feb 2020 - 

Down 80-100 points in 3 mins after 3 pm.

Down 200 points in last 20-30 mins.

 

What is interesting is - Not a similar downtick in any of the global indices in those 30 mins !!. That confirms its a ETF trade.

 

One interesting ETF trade which has created huge volatility - Bharti Airtel.

A counter party for most MSCI rejig is Integrated Core Strategies ( ASIA ) PTE Ltd.

Bharti Airtel - A Contrarian Bounce and Breakout? 

 

Bharti Airtel - Chart 

 

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DISCLOSURE Nooresh Merani

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