What is Nifty Calculator ?
-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.
-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly
-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–
Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )
Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)
Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )
Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.
How to Guess?
- Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
- Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
- Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
- Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
- Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, Infosys, HDFC, ICICI Bank = 41.43% of Nifty. (Nifty at an all time high but none of the top 5 stocks have hit a new all time high !! )
- Top 10 stocks constitutes 58.92% of Nifty ( some drift lower )
- Top 20 stocks constitutes 76.64% of Nifty ( around the same for last few months.)
- Reliance is the top weight at 10.36%, followed by HDFC Bank at 9.79% . 20.15% of the Index.
- Reliance + HDFC Twins = 27% of Nifty ( Hope you get it why Nifty does not depict GDP. 27% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
- HDFC Twins together constitutes 16.61% of Nifty ( same for some time)
- Bottom 26 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 19.07%
- Banks and Financials now steady at 38% for last few months. From a bottom of 33.165 in July 2020.
- Oil and Gas from 16.18% in July 2020 to 12% ( Reliance relative underperformance.)
- Power at just 1.64%. After a long time Media at 0. Metals from 2.15 to 3.63%
|OIL & GAS||12.04||11.79||11.99||12.49||16.18||14.29||13.92||12.45||15.30||14.74||14.42||13.97||14.37||14.74|
|CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS||2.53||2.59||2.27||2.15||2.17||2.41||2.12||2.22||1.50||1.57||1.56||1.69||1.74||1.76|
|FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES||0.67||0.53||0.52||0.43||0.56||0.56||0.56||0.50||0.67||0.70||0.69||0.72||0.72||0.76|
|MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT||0||0||0||0.00||0.27||0.42||0.35||0.32||0.33||0.35||0.49||0.48||0.42||0.41|
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