USD-INR is showing signs of a possible major trend reversal after a long period of rupee weakness.
The chart has formed a potential double top and is now approaching its long-term rising trendline. This trendline has provided support on several occasions, making the current zone important.
Levels to Watch
The last two to three interim bottoms are around 94–94.20.
A decisive break below this support zone and the rising trendline would strengthen the case for a trend reversal. Until then, the double top remains a developing setup rather than a confirmed reversal.
The bearish view would weaken if USD-INR holds above support and moves beyond its recent highs.
FCNR Flow Context
Forex inflows reportedly increased from $72.8 billion on August 21 to $136.4 billion by August 31—approximately $63.5 billion in ten days. FCNR(B) accounted for a large part of these flows.
These inflows may help explain the recent pressure on USD-INR, but the chart still needs to confirm the change in trend. The 94–94.20 zone is the key level to track.
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