Midcaps/Smallcaps will remain in focus for medium term. Be selective

Sensex Technical View :

The view remains the same 17300/17000 and 17800 on upside.

Stocks to watchout for :

Modison does a good move look to book at 32/35.Ratnamani and Aarti may give a dip first and then pull up.

KOVAI MEDICAL rocks from 100 to 170 !! … Time to book profits if not done yet. Will revisit this post soon.

AVT NATURAL PRODUCTS :

Although i am yet to completely do the research on this stock to cover it but the technical indications makes me write a little brief on it.

Good 30% div and a yield of 2.5-3%.

Curr mkt cap of 85 crores.

Book Value of 60.

Exciting business – Check company  site -

Small and Midcap Steel Stocks also look good technically for extreme short term.

Facor Alloys , National Steel and Agro, Tata Metaliks could do a move of 10-15%.

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Sensex 17680/17450 important support – Small caps may continue

Sensex Technical View:

Sensex 17680 and 17450 are important supports for the near term. Till we dont see a sustained move below these levels the broader markets could continue with the current momentum.

sensexchannel

Stocks to watchout for :

Small Banking stocks are making nice pattern on charts – Watchout for DCB, Bank of Maharashtra look good.

Few pharma stocks like Amar Remedies and Vivimed Labs. Traders can keep a watch.

Few more stocks which are closing in on breakout. Not much time to make charts. Also please do your research and adequate risk management as right now one should be strict with stoplosses. Momentum is never permanent !! Discipline should be !!

KEI INDS --  Need to see volume support for price move

Kemrock Inds --- If it stays above 490 the stock can do a quick move to 550

Vivimed Labs – Above 160 the stock can give a sharp move

Ruchi Infra – Above 60

Two Interesting Stocks which i would like to research on and maybe if some body could help me out.

SHARON BIO:

Dunno whether its actually a bio story or not.

AVT Natural Products –

Interesting business in food ingredients. What looks more interesting is the rise in volumes.

People who can do a bit of research please put in their comments.

Sensex 13500 support for now……. Relax and Research!!

Sensex Technical View :

Lets have a few observations :
-- > The Head and Shoulders Pattern seems obvious but only issue is it can also see a test to neckline before achieving full tgts which point to 12k-12.7k. So next few sessions could be confusing with lot of volatility.
-- > Momentum line is broken so markets could well be set for a full retracement of the current move which comes to 13700/12700/11600 which are 23.6/38.2/50 % levels. The trend would not be smooth with relief rallies coming all through. Index could get ranged also.
-- > Short term support is now placed at 13500-13700 from where there could be some pullback rally possibility. Gap Support at 13500 and 23.6% at 13700.
-- > On the medium term as we had discussed before after a move to 14.5 k + ( mentioned at 9.5k-10k ) the index should get into a retracement of the entire leg. Ideally the retracement is generally in the range of 38/50% and an extra stretch may even go till 61% .
-- > Such a correction would be healthy consolidation and one wave of consolidation would be over. Sooner we do this better it is :)... Investors can again look to start pyramiding from 13.5k. Keeping in mind a possibility of 10700 also. So 13.5k/12.7k/11.6k would be levels to look for pyramiding. Simple pyramiding would be 100-200-300-500-800 and so on to accumulate.
-- > Traders can watch for relief rallies from 13500 to trade a bit here and there. A move below 13400 could lead to 12700 levels in extreme short term.
ABOVE ALL -- In FEBRUARY MARCH had mentioned about studying fundamentally sound stocks discussed a lot of them !! but did not get response and people were averse to taking investments and were left out. Yet again i believe July/August is yet a time to get back to some research and make strategies like pyramiding as per personal requirements.
Ever since 15.5k i kept on getting queries what to BUY etc etc ... I am tired saying WAIT so take your time lot many people might have actually bought more at 15.5k when i was suggesting generating cash and wait ! So be disciplined and now get back to work - Research and evaluate.
Stocks to watchout for :
Investment picks- But take only 25-40% exposure and keep positions open to add on further declines.
GTL Infra
One of my favorite stocks in the previous run which was recommended at 30 and went up to 100 + . Yet again around 32-28 partial exposure can be taken and keep position to add further. Short term bounce to 38 could also give trading gains.
ELECON ENGG
The stock could provide a good entry point at 60 and 50 to take 20% and another 20% exposure with long term view. The stock can go back to 90-100 levels in next 6mths to 1 yr. Fundamentally very well placed.
Please do your own research. Fundamentally sound stocks though further research should be done !
Charts for trading levels were posted yesterday.Take your own call on stocks discussed below. My strategy is still to wait and watch.
DLF has broken below 290 and could see some support around 270 levels.
Maruti is the only positive looking chart for now. Keeping a stop of 1050 one can buy for 1150-1200 also. Even Hero Honda looks positive
Ind Bull Realty has cracked and could now be headed to 175-179 last support below which it could even go to 150.
Lanco and IVRCL have maintained strength all through but could be ripe for correction. So watchout for long side traders.

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Sensex chart ….

Dint get time to post the chart.

Keep this chart as a reference similar to one we did about 14.5k/15.5k as levels to sell.
Similarly retracement levels are mentioned. Will write in more details in the evening.
Regards,
Nooresh

DLF,SBI and Tata Steel … Tae




4 charts and view on them . CLICK TO ENLARGE !!!

Take your own call as per market conditions. Can take trades on short side only if stocks stay below breakdown levels for some time. Keep strict stops.
Nothings changed on Sensex so view remains same
Sensex Technical View :

Sensex Technical View :
Sensex has broken below the short term trendline of 14550 which was a stoploss level for all short term speculative longs. Now the index might be in a possible Head and Shoulders pattern but would still wait for a few sessions below the neckline of 14200 to confirm.
We may also see a re-test of the neckline and a possible move about it also before confirming the pattern as the current drop is a knee jerk reaction so next few sessions would clear up the noise on charts.
13900-14200 is a band which if broken will lead to a more deeper correction to 13500/12700 or lower . Would pull a detailed view after 2-3 sessions till then strategy is to wait and watch.
Cash is also a trading position !!!

MARICO discussed some days back as a defensive pick has moved up 10-12% !! ... The strategy to focus on defensives in the portfolio is doing gr8 wonders ... Hope people like discipline and stability.
Dabur, HUL , Cadilla, Cipla , ITC , Nestle.
Investors can similar look towards Britannia as a defensive bet to give stability to portfolio.

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TEAM ANALYSE INDIA

Budget … the reason…Cash is also a trading position

Sensex falls by 800-900 points - --

My speculation was tilting on positive side 🙂 oops... But was not convinced enough ... So what does one do...
Simple - When confused -- Do Nothing !!! --- When in doubt stay out...
So last 1 week or so its been more relaxed with not much of updates and all chat etc answers are wait... Nothing forces us to trade every move but the lowest risk and confident move. Maybe would prefer to watch a little more 🙂
Now lets get back to technicals as i am not an economist to talk on the budget.
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex has broken below the short term trendline of 14550 which was a stoploss level for all short term speculative longs. Now the index might be in a possible Head and Shoulders pattern but would still wait for a few sessions below the neckline of 14200 to confirm.
We may also see a re-test of the neckline and a possible move about it also before confirming the pattern as the current drop is a knee jerk reaction so next few sessions would clear up the noise on charts.
13900-14200 is a band which if broken will lead to a more deeper correction to 13500/12700 or lower . Would pull a detailed view after 2-3 sessions till then strategy is to wait and watch.
Cash is also a trading position !!!
This is an important line which many traders love to forget and end up over trading/lose discipline. All our readers/clients had a great time from 9.5k to 15.5k with super trades and took a rightful position to increase cash at 15.5k.
Got in a lil at 14k-14.2k did get a decent bounce and back to square one. If still holding on stops would be 13.9k for fresh entries.
Sometimes doing Nothing is also good. We would be back in full force after a few sessions be it on either side up or down.
Stocks to watchout for :
Tata Steel 380-415 , DLF 305 -345 and many such ranges were discussed before. Now after a sharp move of 10-15% from our support levels many stocks are back to similar levels or just below it. So all we had was a full circle !! and back to nothing. Many HNS , trendline breakouts seen. So after 2-3 sessions of clarity or confirmatory selling days would give good trading opportunities on either side.
Discussed below are stocks with their supports and recent lows. The lows are equivalent to 14k Sensex and 4100 Nifty levels.
Major stocks and sustaining below these levels for 2-3 sessions would confirm trend change or selling pressure. Holding them could see a small bounce to the extent of 5-8 %. Decide ur trade accordingly.Rounded levels for guidance.
Bank Of India 14k/recent lows -- 309 cmp 327 todays low 315
Bank of Baroda 400 407 398
BHEL 2008 2100 2062
DLF 309 303 305
HDFC Bank 1350 1427 1400
HDFC 2215 2350 2307
ICICI Bank 675 678 665
Larsen and Toubro 1408 1467 1448
Reliance 1900 1893 1865
Reliance Infra 1098 1131 1108
So of the major stocks a large section of stocks are very close to 14k levels which gives a possibility of a small bounce even if they have to crack deeper. Stoplosses are difficult to place on short side unless there is more selling pressure built up and momentum fall.
Trading a bounce should be with a 3-4% stop below 14k lows. Shorts should be below 5% of lows or on rise of 8-10%. Just a rough technical indication rest traders can trust their instincts 🙂
Personal view is to wait on sidelines and yet again start researching on mid cap stocks. Look for pyramiding strategy but slow and little early this time !!
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Sensex trend remains up. … Wait and Watch.


Sensex Technical View :

The index has done nothing in last few days but technical analysts have started pondering widely on different possibilities or patterns which have still not formed .....
In the extreme short term as i have always said REACT RATHER THEN PREDICT ...
So starting of with explaining the notations on the chart and also the observations in the line below.
Few of the notations on Charts with focus on ELECTION time and BUDGET TIME
1) Ellipse showing the pattern at Elections and Budget -- Blue
Bit of similarity but a lesser range days this time
2) Momentum Trendline - Blue and Red
Just a little dip below in both cases. ( false alert )
3) Arrows for Tops
Similar tops seen around higher end it was 12300 before now 14950 ! ( Also previous ckt top at 14930 )
4) Short term Trendline -- Orange and Purple
Recent daily bottoms were seen around short term trendline which were support levels holding up !!
Observations :
-- > There are a lot of similarities in both the formations before the External events. Similar fractals.
-- > The resultant move after elections was on the upside.
-- > Of all the technical observations nothing points to a trend changing indication as of yet.
-- > Short term trendline holding up is an indication of not many market participants taking a bet towards a negative breakdown.
-- > The market has moved up a lot and upmoves are not larger in magnitude now which might be a sign of exhaustion setting in.
-- > If the index has to break down there would be enough opportunities to react ( short ) below the short term trendline or on break of 14200 which is still 700 points away now.
-- > The trend remains positive but not strong as before. A move beyond 15500 may open up to 16050-16200 also.
-- > Only a conclusive move below 14200-14k confirms a trend change which can lead to further retracement to 38% .
Possible HnS ??
There is a lot of buzz around amongst lot of analysts , trackers about a possible Head and Shoulders ( HNS ) being formed on the indices. Similar pattern seen on Dow and SnP as well as other indices.
BUT --
Head and Shoulders is a pattern which gets completed only when the neckline breaks ( may even be followed by a re-test of line ).
Its not a predictive pattern. One needs to wait for lot of confirmations. Otherwise every other move on the index can be assumed to be a possible HNS or Inverted HNS.
So as of now till the neckline is not broken its not into consideration. If it breaks ideally every trader would get opportunity to utilize it so why WORRY now.
Conclusion :
TREND still remains up and many signifcant observations still remain positive. Probability of a further stretch to 15500/16050 remains high. Strategy should be to keep a stop of 14200 or short term trendline at 14550 for longs which should not be heavy !! .

"" If you are not in the market all you can lose is an opportunity Not Money""

Continue to adopt the wait and watch approach .... Detailed view and strategies again after tomorrows move which can also be a NO -EVENT.
Above analysis and work on site/schemes and lot lot more may keep me busy for the week so stock specific updates woud be lesser ( none today )
DO CHECK THE NEW SCHEMES AND OUR SITE --- Details posted below.
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Best Regards,
Nooresh
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Stay light relax … Fresh view after budget ..

Nothing seems to have changed today so just go through the last 2 days Sensex view :

Stocks to watchout for :
Bank of Baroda after giving a false breakout at 460 a day back is now back to testing 410-430 support levels. Many stocks have not seen follow up buying or selling.
So would prefer to take no stock calls for next 2 sessions. If taking short term trades take lesser volumes and keep strict stoplosses.
WEIRD ObSERVATION :
BSE supposed to have one of the very good and robust system had another technical snag after the one noticed on ckt day !
Suddenly all A - B group stocks had a circuit filter of 20% instead of 5% ... T2T stocks Z grp stocks all had a field day with 20% freeze which might have trapped a few traders in the morning. By mid -day the snag was rectified with filters being re-imposed !! .....
Could there have been another solution ? Simply put the exchange needs to pull up their systems and improve !!
Making no efforts to post the details ...
A small article posted by Palak Shah on Business Standard describes what happened.
Nearly 80 stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) today witnessed an unusual price movement of up to 20 per cent. Belonging to ‘S’ and ‘Z’ categories and the trade-to-trade group, these scrips normally attract 5 per cent circuit breakers.

Similarly, Transcrop International Ltd, a ‘B’ group scrip, fell 30.14 per cent today to close at Rs 33.15. Stocks in the ‘B’ group normally attract a maximum circuit breaker of 20 per cent on BSE. Even an ‘A’ group stock, Hindustan Copper, which generated a massive volume of 1.56 lakh shares today, recorded a high of Rs 278 against its upper circuit of Rs 245.95.

Apart from this, the counter of Assam Tea Company, a ‘B’ group stock, witnessed a 1.38-crore block deal at Rs 77 even though the share was being traded at around Rs 16. The block deal was later reversed by BSE.

Gramac Infrastructure Equipment and Projects, Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd, National Fertilizers Ltd, Ahluwalia Contractors and Asian Oil were other ‘B’ group stocks that recorded prices higher than the circuit breakers on huge volumes.

According to market players, BSE did not issue any clarification during the day, nor did the exchange halt trading in these counters to examine the problem.

Lesser known stocks such as Empower Industries India Ltd, Bhagyashree Leasing & Finance, Sturdy Industries, Rama Phosphates, RAS Extrusions, United Drilling, Women Networks and Integra Capital Ltd emerged as the top gainers today with a 20 per cent rise. Strangely, the volume in some of these stocks was as low as 100 shares.

When contacted, a senior BSE official said there was a ‘technical snag’ and trading would resume tomorrow with normal circuit breakers. BSE, however, did not answer an email query asking it about the technical error and how it happened.

Market sources said that some brokers were planning to approach legal experts to present a case before market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). Out of the 80 scrips, 30 rose over 10 per cent and 12 fell more than 10 per cent, triggering stop-loss of share traders. Brokers were also asking for additional margins from clients as these erroneous trades had caused them huge losses.

The problem, say experts, is that when the exchange does not reverse ‘illogical or artificial trades’, the price of a particular stock, which is part of this error, remains at a level that it could have never touched in the near future. Proper action and withdrawal of all such trades are necessary, they say.

https://www.business-standard.com/india/news/80-stocks-witness-unusual-spike-bse-blames-\technical-snag\/362759/

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION MUMBAI

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Nooresh

Nothing conclusive on either side …. Keep positions light and Watch

HP some speculative buying took place in futures at 2 pm it seems. even BPCL moved up from 425 to 460 in the day with volumes inching up in the end ... Just an observation can be totally wrong and stocks might have been seeing such moves usually !

Sensex Technical View :

Nothing conclusive is happening in the index. Although the small range bound moves are moving as per technical levels on extreme short term charts - hourly or daily. A small parallel channel support was not broken and we saw an intra day recovery.
The doji star formation seen a day back is not seeing follow up selling so the pattern is still not effected.
Simpler analysis tells us to remain on lighter positions in short term as external reasons like budget may impact more.
14200-14000 is an important support which if broken could lead to follow up selling. So traders should keep a stoploss of 14k for all short term positions and stay on lighter side.
On the upside 14900-15100 remains an important resistance. Earlier we did take long positions before the election in specific stocks and reaped gains !! but this time i would prefer to wait and watch !!
Stocks to watchout for :
yesterday had mentioned about support and ranges for DLF , TATa Steel
DLF low 305 ! Tata Steel 381. So the range has still been maintained !
DLF 345 resistance on upside and Tata Steel resistance at 415. only a sustained move on above levels could take it higher or may stay range bound.
Many index based stocks are placed similarly .
SBI if stays above 1790-1800 can go upto 1840/1900.Support around 1720-1730 zone.
MARICO
Another defensive stock on the radar after excellent moves on colgate ( was sent to clients ), Cipla, HUL , Dabur , Cadilla ,ITC , Nestle all gave excellent returns in the short term.
Partial exposure can be taken at 72 with a stop of 68 tgt 79-85 +. Only to give stability to portfolio and shift some part of high risk stocks to this one !! ... Not a traders pick
GSPL
Another range bound move 47-52.5 . Buy above 52.5 stop of 51.6 tgt 55 /58 and sell below 47.

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