Nifty – Back to the 8900-9100 resistance. What next ?

Before I go into the post let me just tell you this is just one of the approach to looking at the Nifty chart as of now.

Nifty after making a top at 9100 in March 2015 and a lot of volatility in the 2 years is now back to the same highs.

The next question which comes to mind is will it cross the highs of 2015 at 9100 and start a new momentum move or not ?

So let us look at the Nifty chart

Nifty Technical Chart - Weekly

Nifty Major Move


  • It looks like a cup and handle formation on the Nifty in the last 2 years with a breakout point at 9000-9100 levels.
  • We saw a similar cup and handle formation of 3 years and 6 years in 2013 end to 2014.
  • The breakout back then was not smooth with Nifty making a breakout in end of 2013 but the real trending move started only in March 2014.
  • Also the Nifty had just recovered from a quick downmove in August 2013 with a solid crack in smallcaps/midcaps.
  • By March 2014 the trend was very clear in the Nifty as well as other broader indices. Do read this report which we came out with in March 2014 - Indian Elections - Do they Change Market Trends 
  • Right now in the current move up to 8900 we have a strong Midcaps/Smallcaps moves already. Also none of the stocks/sectors are showing clear leadership unlike 2014. ( Another post on large cap stocks on radar next)
  • My personal view is the current move does not have legs to do a move similar to 2014 yet. We may review the stance again in coming weeks/months. The markets can consolidate for quite some time before a trending move and in this period would be the time to spot out leaders in the largecaps and midcaps.
  • Believe the next few months would be confusing but the next year or two looks pretty exciting and one should be watching the developments closely.

In the next post will try to focus on Large Cap stocks of Nifty which may give us an early indication of leadership.

Nifty RSI as oversold as 2008/2011 – But Midcaps/Smallcaps No Major Correction. Bottoming Out ?

Nifty has dropped from 8950 to 7950 in the last couple of months. This may not be as sharp a drop in percentage wise as it was in 2008/2011 but the speed of the fall on relative basis makes it as oversold as those times.

Nifty RSI Oversold

Nifty - Oversold - But Bottoming out takes Time

  • The previous instances when Nifty had hit 22-25 levels was in Jan 2008/ Oct 2008 and Sept 2011.
  • In Jan 2008 after a strong bounce from 4450-4500 to 5500 it again retested the bottoms did a bounce again and finally broke down the trend.
  • In October 2008 Nifty fell from 4200-4400 to 2200-2500 in a sharp manner. The first time it hit oversold levels of 22 it was at 3200 and made a durable bottom at 2250-2500.
  • In September 2011 it hit a low of 4800 and took another 2-3 attempts in the range of 4500-4800 with positive divergences to form a durable bottom.
  • Nifty has again hit 22 ? What next ?
  • Here comes the tough part of trying to predict as its absolutely impossible to catch all cycles right and I would not try to attempt as cannot be lucky always ๐Ÿ™‚ ( February bottom i got lucky )

But lets make an attempt to look at the price action

1) Nifty lows at 8450-8550 was an intermediate bottom which has been taken out on a sustaining basis. This changes the short term trend down and will change only above 8630/8750 or when we form another swing top in coming months and that is taken out.

2) Nifty is oversold but in previous instances it has taken 1-3 months also to bottom out. If that happens it can be pretty boring and in a range.

3) Very rarely have we seen a V shape recovery after such a correction. But who says it cannot happen ?

4) 61.8% retracement of the move from 6850 to 8950 comes to around 7650-7700. Lasy time in August 2013 we reversed after doing a similar retracement.

5) Technically a good setup to enter would be when we start making Positive divergences on Nifty i.e - Nifty makes another low or two and RSI inches up higher. This old video might help in understanding it ( RSI - What happens when Oversold )

6) I would prefer to wait for a divergence with a new low or a strong reversal to take a fresh trade. I dont mind missing out on the first move or entering fresh trades at a higher price point on confirmation as a trader.

As an investor now things are a bit tougher. Majority of Investors would be focusing on the Smallcaps/Midcaps.

Lets look at the smallcap and midcap index.

I had mentioned a cautious view on Sept 21st 2016 in this post - #Smallcap Indices in All Time Highs and Outperforming Nifty!! Time to be Cautious and Selective !!

Post a little dip on Surgical Strikes Announcement the Smallcap Index went up another 10% !!

Now lets look at the Smallcap Indices again.

BSE Smallcap Index

BSE Small cap Index

  • It is down just 12-14% from the peak but if you were to compare from the day when Nifty made a top at 8950 around Sept its down only 7-8% whereas Nifty is down 10-11% !!
  • So it has been a solid outperformer to Nifty on various timeframes and seems no panic here.

Now lets even look at the BSE Midcap and NIfty Midcap Index

Nifty Mid100 -- What resilience and outperformance to Nifty. Still above the price when Nifty was at 9000 !!

Nifty Midcap 100


  • Still higher than the prices at 9000 Nifty in March April 2015 and 7900 Nifty in Jan 2016 !!
  • Down only 12% from peaks and outperforming Nifty from the time it topped at 8950 !!

BSE Midcap Index - What Resilience and Outperformance to Nifty. Still above the price when Nifty was at 9000 !!

BSE Midcap Resilience

  • Still higher than the prices at 9000 Nifty in March April 2015 and 7900 Nifty in Jan 2016 !!
  • Down only 12% from peaks and outperforming Nifty from the time it topped at 8950 !! 

    Conclusion -

    • The Midcap and Smallcaps have outperformend in last 2 years as well as over last few months even after the current correction.
    • We have not seen any panic in the smallcaps/midcaps like we saw in February/March 2016.
    • Its difficult to say whether resilience is a good sign or bad but definitely its not a time of pessimism in the Midcap/Smallcap space. .
    • Simply put the Midcaps/Smallcaps have not fallen a lot of seen in any panic. Can it panic - I dont know but it definitely is not a pessimistic time to chip in.
    • So for an investor it is this way

    You did not like a stock at 100 rs as it was overvalued 3 months back but after that stock went to 150 and is now at 110 it suddenly looks value.

    Is it because of a 25% drop from peak which is giving an illusion of value or fundamentals have changed ?

    Is it that you are scared you dont want to miss out ?

    This is a time to evaluate with a fresh perspective and not get anchored to the high and low prices as an Investor.


    • Technically the Short Term Trend is down with Nifty getting into oversold zones like 2008/2011 but unlike previous oversold zones the Midcaps/Smallcaps have not seen a panic and rather showing a lot of resilience.
    • The strategy for a trader should be to stay with the trend which is down or wait for a Positive Divergence on Nifty to start looking for long trades. There is a time to trade and there is a time to sit and wait.
    • For an Investor the strategy would entirely depend on the cash levels.

    cash Twitter

    • But if you do not have a good allocation to equity as part of networth the next few weeks/months could be a good time to deploy fresh money in parts with a view of next 2-3 years.
    • If the correction of 15-20% from peak has scared you as an investor you got to read the following.

    Real Estate Twitter

    • I would say i have a lot of clarity on the 2-3 year picture being rosy but the next few months are pretty confusing with markets. As a trader have a simple rule - When in Doubt , Stay Out !ย  - As an Investor when in doubts stay in the hunt for a good entry price !
    • Also next time would try to make a video explaining the thoughts in much more detail and also elaborate on the Chor Zabardasti Bane Mor theme.




    If you are looking out for customized Advisory -

Nifty and CNX 500 Technical View.

Nifty Technical View

Nifty Tech

  • Many bottoms at 8500.
  • Resistance at 8750-8800.
  • Can it see a move beyond this range in coming weeks.
  • As the trend is still up the assumption would be a breakout on upside till 8500 holds.

CNX 500 Technical View

CNX 500

  • CNX 500 is a stronger higher top and higher bottom.
  • As the trend is up assumption is a breakout beyond 7600-7650 resistance mark.
  • Downside 7350 remains the trend change point.

It would be interesting to watch if we see follow up action out of this range in next 2-3 weeks. A triangle consolidation is also a pattern where one can look for a long strangle.

Although the benchmark indices are consolidating and yet to breakout on the upside but the microcaps/smallcaps are seeing a strong move.

Today almost 25 stocks were on a 20% circuit on BSE.

In simpler terms.

If you have an #exit plan and #riskmanagement the momentum in #smallcaps you have to #ride. If no such #plan just #hide and stay #aside.

Be selective and manage risk.

#Smallcap Indices in All Time Highs and Outperforming Nifty!! Time to be Cautious and Selective !!


Nifty has done a solid bounce back much more than what I expected from the bullish point of view I had in February 2016. The trend continues to remain strong with higher tops and higher bottoms. The last bottom at 8540 would be a first zone below which would look at any short term trend change.

Nifty Blog

  • Nifty has done a strong move since the bottom in February 2016 at 6850-7000 where a lot of people on the street were sure about 6400.
  • We did expect a sharp bounce like it did in 2012. Some old posts mentioning itย ย  -ย  IIF Meet video - Beg Borrow Steal and Invest was the view in February 2016.
  • Although i expected a lot of resistance to come in at 8000-8300 but we have taken that out with ease and even digested events like Brexit.
  • Technically there is no reason to doubt the trend till 8540 is taken out. But the previous top at 9000-9100 should be a stiff resistance. Also a correction after such a rally is fine and it could also be timewise where markets remain sideways in a range for quite a few months.

Conclusion - Nifty is in a strong trend but a timewise correction is possible in coming months. Price wise can be confirmed post a dip below 8540.

Now comes the part which is a bit uncomforting is the solid rally by smallcaps/midcaps and micro caps. Also being focused on smallcaps/midcaps it has been a good enough time. But the moves have now shifted to stocks which are highly illiquid and seeing sudden bursts of 20-50% moves.

One of the reasons there has been not much update is I have been busy trading/recommending the microcaps/smallcaps as well as any mention of an illiquid name can make the stocks go dizzy in such conditions. Hopefully the action shifts to liquid large caps or midcaps and i ll get to update more. Focusing on Pharma/Fmcg sector.

Whenever I find myself trading a lot of microcaps i do get a bit uneasy making that quick money. The last time I got this uneasy did not end well for the markets in next 2 months. Was just a lucky timing as I did not act enough myself but luckily discipline helped.

MultiBaggers โ€“ Google Trends crosses 2007 highs !!

Nifty and Microcaps topped out almost at the same time of the post in January 2016 !! and we saw a good sharp drop in microcaps. I did not think it would be that sharp but its better to be cautious when you see signals.

Midcap and Smallcap Indices are in all time highs and up 10-15 % from the Nifty equivalen tof 9100 hit in 2015.

Across all the major indices tracking midcap/smallcaps on #BSE and #NSE the common things are

  • The Index is trading at all time highs.
  • It is higher by 10-15% from the highs of 2015. Nifty equivalent of 9100.
  • Up a good 35-50% from the bottoms in Feb/March 2016.
  • A good solid move of 10% + in last 2 months.

If the indices are up then some microcaps would be up much more. Also we do not have an index tracking the microcaps and kudacaps/bhangar caps etc ๐Ÿ˜‰

Bse Midcap Index yo

BSE Midcap Index is up 10-15% from the highs in 2015.

Nifty mid 50

Nifty Midcap 50 is back to the highs of 2007 and up 10-15 % from the highs in 2015.

Nifty mid 100

Nifty Mid 100 is at life time highs and up 10 % from highs of 2015. Also this targets the top 100 midcaps and shows how the quality midcaps have outperformed.

Smallcap Index

BSE Smallcap Index which is the closest we can get to the lower rung of stocks is now up 10 % from highs of 2015 but still 10% below highs of 2007 ( So we are nowhere as crazy as 2007 as not even crossed that high )

Nifty Small 100

Nifty smallcap 100 has crossed the all time highs in last few days above 2007/2015 highs. This chart signals the momentum may continue in Smallcaps in the next few years.



  • There are two ways to look at the above Smallcap/Midcap Indices - One it shows that the leadership is evident in Midcaps/Smallcaps and an investor should be selective. Secondly a big divergence from the benchmark indices is not generally a good thing and in past has led to short term corrections.
  • To put it simply we are nowhere as crazy in divergence like in 2007 or in 2010 but in the near term it is a little overheated and could get more also you never know. But such jumps lead to a shorter term correction.
  • At such times it is necessary that one is cautious and very selective. Not all smallcaps turn into midcaps and not all midcaps into large caps. So do not go with blindfaith and be selective as an Investor!!
  • Its a good time to weed out the portfolio of bad stocks , keep some cash for fresh ideas , shift to better stocks. A little bit of caution does not hurt.
  • This may not be the time for leverage for traders who are not disciplined.
  • Do note its a time to be cautious and not to go short-selling as a trader or high on cash for an investor ๐Ÿ™‚ !!!
  • Finally do read the disclaimer and do your own risk management.

Please Note -- Personally and for clients have been a tiny bit leveraged or totally allocated right from Feb/March 2016. Cutting down on leverage and looking to increase cash , also focusing on stocks which are cash bargains or where downside is limited. So its a biased view.

Nifty at 8500 up 25% from February Lows. Time to Ride or Step Aside ?

#Nifty has bounced back almost 25% from the lows of February at 6825-6860.

Many stocks have bounced back much sharper.

#YesBk up 75% , #HDFCBk 26% , #KotakMahindra 30%, #SBI 52% , #BOB 45% , #canbk 52% , #PNB 75% #BankNifty 38% from the Feb lows. #randomfact

, #Vedanta 165% , , #Hindalco 125% ,#DLF 100%, #TataMotors 82%. The major gainers from top 100 companies. #randomfact

At the same time midcaps and smallcaps have also done well.

Bse Midcap Index just hit a new all time high with strong momentum.

Bse Midcap

BSe Smallcap Index close to a 2-5 year high.

Bse Smallcap Index

Nifty Technical View


Nifty Technical View

The previous posts and expectations.

Current Technical View

  • Nifty has continued in a channeled move in last 2-3 months.
  • We are now at the upper end of the channel at 8500-8550.
  • Previous top and breakdown point of the uptrend at 8650 is another resistance.
  • Ideally we should see a pause here in coming days.
  • At the same time midcap and smallcap indices have broken out sharply and momentum can continue in select stocks even with a correction in Nifty. This is also the time when we see a lot of crap stocks do much bigger moves.
  • Supports at 8200 and 8300. Recent lows and channel support.
  • But the medium to long term trend remains Up and Strong. A major turnaround and bottoming confirmation was done by crossing 7600/8000.
  • So on a longer term basis it still remains a buy on dips and stick to the bullish stance of 1-3 years.


  • The big problem with such massive moves is the stocks you own may not have rallied 60-100 % from the lows and that would make you feel left out.
  • Secondly if you would have not bought or deployed fresh cash in the dips to 7200 the big confusion is to deploy fresh cash or increase cash from the portfolio.
  • The big mistakes which happen in such momentum moves and left out feeling is you end up buying some companies just for momentum/news or compromise on quality and fill up your portfolio.
  • If you had deployed additional cash at 7200 and not booked partially it at 8000-8300 can do so now at current levels. Sit on that cash for a dip or a new opportunity as every new trend gets new movers.
  • Be very selective in stock selection. If trading momentum then be strict with stoplosses. Avoid over-leverage.

Conclusion - Step Aside out of the momentum unless you are very disciplined with position sizing and stoplosses. As an investor increase some cash but be on look out of fresh ideas with an open mind.


Technical Analysis Training Mumbai

Last 4-5 seats left.

23rd and 24th July

9 am to 6 pm

Venue :

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36, Lallubhai Park Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai โ€“ 400 058. Maharastra, India.

Fees - Pay as much as you want.

Registration Fees = Rs 4000 

This is how much you can pay

1) Ask for registration fees to be refunded if you do not like the course.

2) Pay anything above Rs 4000.

(You can pay in chq/neft/online/gift/blessings at the venue or anytime after the course. There is no upper limit to the payment:))

Entries on a first come first save basis. Batch size 15-30 participants.

No Conditions apply. You can also directly come at the venue if seats are left. Confirm via e-mail .

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Nifty Technical View & 10 year Blogging Anniversary

In my last update had mentioned about increasing cash at 7900-8200.

Nifty at 7900 and higher โ€“ Time to Increase Cash / Book Partial Profits.

Nifty did not make that move beyond 8000 and dipped to 7700 in the interim.

Now lets take a fresh view on Nifty

Nifty Range Breakout

Nifty Technical View

  • Nifty has around 4-6 attempts at 7950-8000 over the last few months.
  • The pattern may look like a Cup and Handle or a Inverse Head and Shoulders or Triangle or in simple words a range breakout could take place above 8000 or 7700.
  • Given that the expected target is 8300 or 7400 but the risk-reward was not very suitable for a positional trade so initiated a Nifty Long Strangle of 7700/8000 strikes in our Technical Traders Club and QuickGains Advisory Service as the Range can breakout on one side possibly over the next 1 month.
  • It could also turn out to be a momentum trade on sustaining above 7970. If one can keep a little deeper stoploss and ready for the risk involved could be a decent trade.
  • Now coming to the little more medium term view. The resistance at 8300 would be a tough one given the cluster of tops/bottoms around that range as well as 61.8% retracement of the fall from 9100 to 6900.
  • So would expect markets to take a breather post a rally to 8300.
  • For an investor this would again be a time to increase cash ( does not imply 50% but 10-30% depending on individual style.) and book partial profits provided you added some in the dips. Also be look out for new sectors which could possibly be turning around.


  • As a trader this could be a momentum move and you need to nimble footed and trail the move or book partial profits if we go to the resistance area.
  • As an investor this could be time to have a re-look to your portfolio and keep researching for new turnaround sectors or new performers.
  • I can be totally wrong so do your own research and risk management.

10 years Blogging Anniversary

Linkedin yet again reminded me of a work anniversary with a lot of standard messages by contacts on linkedin- "Congrats on the anniversary! Hope you're doing well."

Although i started writing first on orkut communities and some other forums from 2004-2005 and some posts got missed out in migration to wordpress but very active blogging started some time in 2006.

So its 10 years of blogging makes me feel much older than I am :). Time flies when you love what you do.

Also May marks my introduction into Markets through my Mentor and Guide โ€“ N S Fidai who taught me the basics and much more over the years and continues to guide in different aspects of life. Remember him and his friend talking about how markets would correct and drop big way irrespective of the election on the basis of technical analysis. In a few days 17th May 2004 โ€“ Black Monday happened which increased my curiosity towards technical analysis. I consider myself lucky to have started seeing the big down tick first as mostly people generally start in a bull market. .

It is almost 12 years in the market and 10+ years writing on technical analysis. Hope that I have crossed the 10000 hours rule โ€“ Outliers and better things are in store.

I would like to thank each and every reader for their constant support,appreciation,criticisms,feedback through the last so many years. It is almost 2500 posts/ 50 lakhs hits and 5500 + registered readers. Hope to pakao you for many more years.

Nifty at 7900 and higher – Time to Increase Cash / Book Partial Profits.

This is a continuation to the Technical View on Nifty.

Instead of writing a post with many charts decided to make a quick video but it ended up being a 15 mins video roughly.

In this video we compare the moves of 2011-2012 bottoming out and the current one in 2015-2016.

Technical View on Nifty @ 7900

  • Time to increase cash at 7900 and higher levels and would find it tough to cross the previous tops of 8300. Also have a bunch of resistance at 8000.
  • If you did allocate fresh money at 7000 it is a good time to book partial profits and keep cash for next opportunity.
  • Also good time to book profits when suddenly everyone has now turned bullish. A little contrarian approach.
  • More importantly we saw new sectors like consumers/pharma and others do well in 2012-2014. So maybe we could see a rotation of sectors and one needs to have some cash to latch on if you catch such an opportunity.



It has been one of the few times where I had very strong conviction to buy the dips and the same was expressed in the following manner in my blog posts/webinars and a forum video. At that time when i everyone was sure about 6400 in February & in couple of months we are standing at 7900 on Nifty. Thats like being wrong by 1500 points just to get the last 200 points entry right.

Some of the posts in February/March which are a good read may also become relevant if we dip in the future.

1) " Is it the right time to Invest in Equities " โ€“ JagoInvestor School โ€“ Webinar" - Link to the Post

2)ย  Nifty โ€“ Bear Market Cycles/ P-E / FII Selling/ Global Indices co-relation. - Link to the Post

3)ย  IIF Meet Videoย  - Beg Borrow Steal and Invest on 13th February 2016 - Link to the Post

4) Explained the same even in a ET Now interview - Smart Markets Part 1 and Smart Markets Part 2

Nifty Technical View and IIF Meet Video

Recently had written a few articles focusing on Nifty from different angles like technicals , p-e , Global Indices etc.

I have consolidated the same into an e-book.

Nifty Kya Lagta Hai -

A quick follow up on Nifty


Nifty Technical View

  • For the last 12-13 months Nifty has been in a downward channel. The recent lows at 6825-6870 were very close to the channel. ( did break it by a small margin.)
  • In the near term we have crossed a recent top at 7600 which is a first indication of an extreme short term trend change.
  • Channel resistance at 7800-7850.
  • Another couple of tops at 7950-7970.
  • The above zones could be a good area to book partial profits to increase some cash.
  • The next question is can we breakout above the channel ? Lets look at the breakout which happened in 2012.

2012 Nifty

  • In 2012 we saw a further dash above the channel. Its tough to say whether it was a Bull Trap or Short Covering but did confirm a major bottom in place.

In that sense if shorting stops should be placed at 7970 the previous top and hence a risk-reward short entry can come in if we see Nifty rallying a little more. Will review the stance if we reach the zone of 7800-7850.

IIF Meet Video

I had recently given a small talk in the IIF google group meet in Delhi on 13th February 2016.

Nifty had hit a low of 6870 on Friday February 12th 2016 so it was some lucky timing to come up with the presentation title to be - Beg Borrow Steal and Invest.

Its a small talk of 35 mins and i got hold of the recording in this week so just sharing it. Most of the charts used in the presentation are from the blog.




Registration Fees = Rs 2000   for Technical Analysis and Rs 3000 Investing Lab           ( Refundable )

This is how much you can pay

1) Ask for registration fees to be refunded if you do not like the course.

2) Pay anything above Rs 2000.

(You can pay in chq/neft/online/gift/blessings at the venue or anytime after the course. There is no upper limit to the payment:))

Entries on a first come first save basis. Batch size 5-25 participants.

No Conditions apply. You can also directly come at the venue and register.


The Investing Lab โ€“ April 23-24th Mumbai. Pay as much as you want !! Register @Rs 3000


Technical Analysis Training April 9-10th Mumbai Pay as much as you Want !! Register @ Rs 2000

Nifty Technical View and Some Charts of Nifty components

This is just a picture of how Nifty and some of its components are interestingly placed. Do your own research and this is not a buy/sell recommendation.

Nifty Technical Chart

Nifty short term

  • 7400-7450 and 7600-7630 remains a band for the index now.
  • Overall continue to maintain the stance of being bullish for long term and this being a correction like 2011.
  • Channel continues to remain in place 6700-7900 the major boundary for the same.

Some Nifty components

TCS - crosses 2400 but bunch of resistances at 2450-2480


SBI - 190 a short term resistance.


Reliance Inds --- A strong recovery from lows but 1050-1100 a problem zone for long time now.

Reliance Inds

Mahindra and Mahindra --- Bounce from exact supports. 1280 a resistance.

Mahindra and Mahindra

Lupin - This looks like one ugly chart after todays move.


Infosys - Was pretty firm in the correction. Will it cross 1200 and breakout ?


ICICI Bank --- 235-245 a tough resistance.

icici bank

Hindustan Unilever - Can it breakout above 870

Hindustan Unilever

HDFC Bank --- 1040-1050 a resistance.

HDFC Bank Trendline

HDFC Limited --- Reversal after false breakdown but trend change above 1180-1200

HDFC Limited











Training Program Schedule ( will put a detailed post next week)

Technical Analysis Training Mumbai - Pay as much as u want - April 9-10th

Registration Fees = 2000

The Investing Lab - pay as much as u want - April 23-24th

Speaker - Puneet Khurana and Nooresh Merani

Registration Fees = 3000

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Seats on a first come first serve basis and max 20 participants.

Please mail to after payment.

Nifty 50 – Another set of exclusions/inclusions possibly coming in next 1 year.

Recently had written a few articles focusing on Nifty from different angles like technicals , p-e , Global Indices etc.

I have consolidated the same into an e-book.

In a periodic review NSE removed PNB, Vedanta, Cairn India and replaced it with Aurobindo Pharma, Bharti Infratel, Eicher Motors and Tata Motors DVR. Link to the article.

Over the nextย  1 year we could see some more stocks being excluded from Nifty and replaced by others.

The easiest way to check which are the stocks that stand a chance to get into Nifty is to look at Nifty Junior which has been rebranded as Nifty Next 50.

So as of yesterdays prices.

The last 5 stocks as per Free Float Weightage on Nifty 50. The recent 3 entries also come under review again.

Stock Name Free Float
BHEL 9594
ACC 11628


The top stocks which stand a chance to make it to Nifty 50 from Nifty next 50.

Stock Name Free Float
TITAN 14234
UPL 13201
MARICO 12945

If you notice all the above stocks have a free float market cap more than the last 5 constituents of Nifty 50. The reason they do not make it into Nifty 50 is the following condition in the methodology of Nifty 50 Eligibility Criteria.

  • Companies eligible for inclusion in the Nifty 50 must have at least twice the float-adjusted market capitalization of the current smallest index constituent.

Due to the above criteria have not included the bottom 10 of Nifty but stocks like - Idea Cellular , Bank of Baroda, Gail India, Ambuja Cements, Bosch Limited and Tata Steel would also come under the exclusion radar as free float market cap is equal to the above stocks of Nifty next 50.

Some more criteria.

  • Timing of Changes: The index is reviewed semi-annually, and a four-week notice is given to the
    market before making any changes to the index constituents.
  • Additions: The complete list of eligible securities is compiled based on the float - adjusted market
    capitalization criteria. After that, the liquidity (impact cost) and float - adjustment filters are applied to
    them, respectively. The top ranking companies form the replacement pool. The top stocks, in terms of size
    (float-adjusted market capitalization) are, then, identified for inclusion in the index from the replacement
  • Deletions: Stocks may be deleted due to mergers, acquisitions or spin-offs. Otherwise, as noted above,
    twice a year a new eligible stock list is drawn up to review against the current constituents. If this new list
    warrants changes in the existing constituent list, then the smallest existing constituents are dropped in
    favor of the new additions.

So going ahead in the next 1 year any sharp drops or rallies in above stocks will see a good set of churn as there a bunch of stocks in the free float market cap of 10k-20k crores.


As the seats were limited to 15-20 the batch is full.

Will be having another session in April in Mumbai and Bangalore ideally by May 2nd week. Will put up schedule this weekend.