Stocks at Supports, Resistance and Retest–United Breweries, Take Solutions, Prism Cements, NIIT Limited, Monte Carlo, Max Ventures, LT Foods, Crisil, Bajaj Auto.

Over the last few days the divergence in movement of Smallcap Index and Nifty has reversed. Nifty has made new highs and Smallcaps continue to drift down with quite a few smallcaps/microcaps seeing a 10-20% drop from recent highs and the Smallcap Indices down 5% from the recent highs.

The last article on this Divergence - BSE Smallcap Index and Nifty/Sensex–Momentum Divergence–How long can it continue ?

So finally we get a few stocks on Supports and Retest of previous Breakouts. Also posting a few charts very close to a resistance of last few years.

United Breweires – Can it break the 1200 barrier which is a resistance for the last few months and more than a year too.

United Breweries

Take Solutions – 120-180 Range for last couple of years. Can it breakout above 180-185.

Take Solutions

Prism Cements – Retest of Breakout at 125-130

Prism Cements

NIIT Limited – A 45-50 pointer consolidation with breakout point at 120. Can it break out in coming weeks ?

NIIT Limited

Monte Carlo – Resistance at 650.

Monte Carlo

Max Ventures – Back to Supports.

Max Ventures

LT Foods Retest of Breakout

LT Foods

CRISIL – Trend Change ?  Back to previous Highs ?

Crisil

BAJAJ Auto – Time for a quick breakout ?

Bajaj Auto

 

Online Technical Analysis Training Session. 18th February 2018

Trainers – N S Fidai and Nooresh Merani
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DISCLOSURE Nooresh Merani

Securities covered above:  All mentioned in the above post

SEBI Registration disclosure - Investment Adviser ( INA000002991)

Financial Interest:

Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts would not have exposure in the securities mentioned in the above report/article. ( LT Foods – Nooresh Merani family has an exposure )

Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts do not have any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst.

Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts have not received any compensation from the company/third party covered in the above report/article ever.

Nooresh Merani and his family/associates/ analysts  has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered in the report/article and has not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the report/article.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly and believed to be true. Investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision

Also read the detailed disclaimer - https://www.nooreshtech.co.in/disclaimer

Technical Charts – Icici Bank, Axis Bank,Bpcl, dlf, Hero Motocorp.

icicibank

 

Earlier we were looking for a price action above 900-910 or a move beyond 840 on downside. There is price action below 840 but it formed a doji for last couple of days. No signs of momentum seen on the downside too.

 

axisbank

 

Axis Bank --- Again near to supports but will it break or reverse. Too early to call.

 

bpcl

 

BPCL – 700-710 seems a resistance. Is diesel hike on cards.

 dlf

 

DLF – The ping pong continues between 170-190 to 240-260 bands on either side.

 

heromoto

 

Hero Motocorp --- The stock looks excellent on the long term basis. Previous tops 2250-2270 remain a resistance which if crossed can give a jump. Only concern stoploss is a bit deep.

 

Strategy: The last few weeks have been terrible in terms of market behaviour with no clear direction it seems that now its a time to just sit back and wait for clarity on trending trades. Stick to small and quick trades. Buy the dips to book on jumps.

Some Quick Technical Charts

hdfcltd mnm titan BankofIndia hdfcbank

 

Also more such quick observations posted on www.analyseindia.com

 

Above is just a quick review and not a buy/sell recommendation so please do your own research. We may or may not take any action on above charts.

 

Currently our view is to stay on to cash and hold a mix of defensive and growth stocks which we like and have lesser downside risk. Technically we dont see many buying opportunities as the trend remains down in broader market apart from a few large cap cos everything is sinking.

 

As mentioned before we have been a buyer below 4950-4700 as 1st entry and 4300-4500. With the sharp bounce backs we could book profits previously so still holding lot of stocks and less equities

 

Regards,

 

Nooresh Merani

 

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Jubilant Foodworks – Too Expensive –Highly Speculative !

This has been one of the favorite stocks of speculators over the last many months.

 

If one has to simply look at the fundamentals it really hits us as to why would you buy this stock at 850-900 levels ?

Things to note.

 

-> Current Market Cap of Jubilant Foodworks – 1.1 billion US dollars or around 5500 cr Re.  Current Market Cap of Dominos USA – 1.69 billion dollars. (

 

-> Current P-E of Dominos USA around 18-19. Current P-E of 68-70 for Jubilant Foodworks.

 

There are just too many Indian companies available at 5000-6000 crores market cap like Godrej Inds, Indian Hotels, Tata Global who have been around for decades :). Although there is no comparison to above but it clearly tells you the size of Jubilant Foodworks.

 

Now certain other things which create big doubts on the company.

 

- > Delivery Volumes are only 10-25%. Implies 75% of the trades are squared of intra day !!! I doubt Institutions trade in it 🙂 so is some one manipulating ? circular trading ?

 

-> Total Daily Volumes on NSE itself is around 15-25 lakhs and another 8-10 lakh shares on BSE. This gives a total volume of around 25-30 lakhs every day.

 

-> Total No of shares is around 6.4 cr of which 59% is promoters and 20% with institutions which leaves us with a floating no of shares of around 1.2 cr shares. Many other institutions would be holding less then 1%.

On so many days it has even traded as high as 50 lakh shares 🙂 in a day. That is way too high for an investors comfort

 

-> Promoters have sold some stake at higher levels.

 

13-Sep-11 Jubilant Foodworks Ltd Jubilant Enpro Pvt Ltd Sell 170,000   02-Sep-11
09-Sep-11 Jubilant Foodworks Ltd Jubilant Enpro Pvt Ltd Sell 27,392   29-Aug-11
07-Sep-11 Jubilant Foodworks Ltd Jubilant Enpro Pvt Ltd Sell 40,000   26-Aug-11
06-Sep-11 Jubilant Foodworks Ltd Ajay Kaul Sell 55,000   02-Sep-11
02-Sep-11 Jubilant Foodworks Ltd Jubilant Enpro Pvt Ltd Sell 102,220   17-Aug-11

 

Majority of the stake has been sold from 17 August to 13 September. The stock price then was between 920-1020.

Mr Ajay Kaul ( CEO ) selling of 55000 shares was between 02 September to 06 September. The stock price was at 950-1020 for that 4 days only 🙂 and once it was reported to the exchange the stock took a hit it seems or mr Ajay Kauls timing was brilliant. He has only sold part of his holding apparently.

 

Stock subsequently hit 650 and is now back to 850-880.

 

-> The promoter holding has declined from 62.07% to 58.88 % as of last quarter and ma fall further in this quarter.

-> The company does sales of less then 1000 crores and with decent NPMs. As the business grows which people expect the NPMs are set to drop is what i feel.

-> Even if the company keeps growing at current pace the stock price is way too high at 850-900 bucks and is already factoring high growth for next 1-2 years.

 

 

All in all there are way too many question marks in the above stock. How long can the company grow profits at 50% y-o-y. What if the NPMs drop. The growth takes a hit due to competition or some undue announcement. The delivery volumes show lot of speculative interest.

 

There seems no Margin of Safety and Way too much Risk in the above stock. !!! 🙂 ---- My view its a clear AVOID !!! Even for the day traders take CARE 🙂

 

Happy Investing,

 

Nooresh Merani

 

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Axis Bank and Cummins technical charts

Cummins

 

Cummins ---- Breakdown confirmed but no follow up.

 

Axis Bank

 

Axis Bank --- Fall but with less pressure can expect pullback in coming days.

 

Technically this is a consolidation for the markets and it will continue to give surprise hits on either side. Traders need to be cautious and keep lower volumes and wait for right opportunities. Have seen a few stops being hit over the last 1 week.

 

Nifty may stay in this range of 4750-5150 for quite some time it seems. On the broader end 4500-4550 on downside and upside to 5320 remains an extreme case. Go stock specific and that too in lower positions be it short or long. Long term Investors may continue to use every panic for stock specific buying slowly.

 

JB chemicals may get interesting at 55-60 levels on terms of cash available.

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION ————— MUMBAI OCTOBER 8-9

For more details contact Kazim 09821237002 or mail on analyseindia@analyseindia.com

Also would suggest readers to take this bearish phase as the best time to learn technical analysis so that you can profit from it in the future. The best time to learn is now !! and the 2 day training programme we conduct is the best way to do it and all it requires is an interest to learn and no other pre-requisite knowledge.

Godrej Inds – Low Downside Risks– Huge upsides in Long term – An important pick for a long term portfolio.

 

Over the past many months we have been recommending Godrej Inds at 185-200 levels as well as had many trading positions in it in this range of 185-240.

 

But lets look at a little longer time horizon on the stock and possible reasons for buying the stock with a 1-2 yrs or even 5 years view. The major comfort comes in the fact that management is reliable and has good track record.

 

Now lets look at some more details

 

Godrej Inds – Market Cap – 6100 crores

 

Holding Value

 

1) Godrej Consumer Products – 21.6% holding is worth around 2900 crores

 

2) Godrej Properties – 70.6% holding is worth around 3200 crores

 

So thats give a holding value of around 6100 crores.

 

Now lets look at other major businesses

 

Godrej Inds – Chemicals business – Does sales of around 1000 crores.

 

Godrej Agrovet – Does sales of 1900 crores.

 

Apart from that there are many other business like Animal Feed, Godrej Tyson Foods, Palm Oil  and other Agri products, Godrej Seeds & Genetics Limited.

 

Apart from this the company- Godrej Inds  has a share of 40% in the profits for development of Vikhroli property. They may also have more development of Godrej & Boyce properties all over India.

 

So if i were to take a rough valuation.

 

Holding Value Discount – 2500-3000 crores.

Other companies do almost 3000-4000 crores of sales and the real estate development we can give it a valuation of price to sales of 1 ( this is my way m bad at fundamentals neways but a rough approximation )

 

So at current market cap of 6000-6100 crores i believe downside could be limited to 10-15% but upsides could be easily a double over the next 3 years.

 

An investor with a long term view should have this stock in the portfolio as its a mix of safety as well as participation in growth with so many verticals.

 

The above analysis is a quick take and a personal view – Please do your own research.

 

Disclosure: Have long term investments in the stock as well as we keep trading the stock for small spurts to reduce the holding average.

 

 

Happy Investing,

 

Nooresh

 

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

Alert to buy declines on Friday between 4820-4720. If bought time to book.

 

Last Friday had mentioned that one can look at staggered buying as INDIA VIX was back to 37 odd levels showing extreme panic. Alert VIX . We initiated a couple of option strategies on Friday which yielded 5% + in 3 sessions ( will update a detailed post on it soon )  . look at the previous Alert which was before 4900 to 5150 move – INDIA VIX

 

Again had mentioned yesterday the view remains to buy on declines in specific stocks. One should now look to book on rise to 5050 + as from a low of 4750 we expected a 6-10% bounce which gives us 300 + points move.

 

CanaraBank

CANARA BANK --- Stock to watchout for tomorrow can jump to 455/470.

Disclosure : BTST taken at 441 for clients

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION ————— MUMBAI OCTOBER 1 –2

For more details contact Kazim 09821237002 or mail on analyseindia@analyseindia.com

Also would suggest readers to take this bearish phase as the best time to learn technical analysis so that you can profit from it in the future. The best time to learn is now !! and the 2 day training programme we conduct is the best way to do it and all it requires is an interest to learn and no other pre-requisite knowledge.

btw will be featuring on CNBC TV 18 BullsEye program for this week.

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

( If you would like to talk to me please send an sms to 09819225396 or mail me with ur contact details )

Eicher Motors – Another strong breakout – Accumulate. Sensex range bound for now.

EicherBlog

 

 

Eicher Motors – Stock has hit 52 week highs in falling markets 🙂 which clearly shows the strength.

Accumulate on every dip stoploss 1300 medium term target price 1600-1700.

 

Disclosure: We have a buy on Eicher, Berger and other stocks discussed and will be from a little lower levels or closer to current market price 🙂

 

Sensexblog

 

Sensex supports at 16200-16400. Resistance at 16800-17300. Long term supports at 15400-15600.

Berger Paints – Accumulate for medium term target 120-135.

berger

 

Berger Paints -

 

Had recommended the stock in our detailed powerpoint as a good midcap pick,

The stock has remained resilient in current markets and is on verge of a major breakout. Accumulate between 112-102 with a stoploss of 95 and target price of 120-135 in medium term.

 

The view for the index remains the same as before book partially at 16800-17300 and be stock specific. We have seen good performance in all our stocks mentioned. Was a bit busy with family commitments so could not update much last week.

 

 

Technical Analysis Training sessions planned for Banglore and Hyderabad for more details call – Kazim 09821237002 or Asif 09833666151

 

Regards,

 

Nooresh

 

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com